Population challenge before Bangladesh
Sunday, 16 August 2009
Mahfuz R Chowdhury
Bangladesh, with 150 million people living in 134,000 sq km, has the dubious distribution of being the seventh largest country in the world in population. Population density of more than 1100 people per sq km, makes the expression 'overpopulated' inadequate. Only a few city states, like Singapore haves greater population density. But there can be no comparison with a city state in population density. The prospect of Bangladesh losing territory due to the rise in sea level makes the outlook far from comfortable.
From about 75 million at the time of independence, the population of Bangladesh has more than doubled in 38 years. The current estimate of Bangladesh's population varies from 1.4 per cent to 1.8 per cent a year, depending on who is doing the assessment. Even if the growth rate is 1.75 per cent a year, the Bangladesh population would double in 40 years. At the growth rate of 1.4 per cent, it would double in 47 years. How serious would the situation when the population of Bangladesh reaches 300 million in 40 or 47 years. To get an idea, one might imagine, the US state of Wisconsin, about the size of Bangladesh, also having a population of 300 million.
Idealists may be quick to point out that Bangladesh is making progress in education and healthcare, with an economic growth rate of about 5.0 per cent a year. Though true, the progress has had a little effect on the overall poverty in the country.
Studies reveal that in real terms the poverty in Bangladesh has gone up. What is responsible for the anomaly? Besides corruption, which benefited a few and slowed down economic growth, rapid population growth must have aggravated poverty by neutralising the gains.
The population growth rate among the educated in Bangladesh has significantly come down. But the rate of growth among the underprivileged, who constitute an overwhelming majority, double that among the educated, continue to swell the nation's population. The poor, customarily prefer more children to supplement their income and provide old age support. They get married early, produce more children, educate or support them to grow up. The irony is that the children born in such environment repeat what their parents did. The obvious upshot is over population.
So, the low population growth among the educated is neutralised by the increase among the underprivileged. The population growth, unless checked, is bound to imperil Bangladesh.
The impact of climate change is putting extra pressure on the limited natural resources of the country. Indeed, the process of migration from the coastal areas, which already began would intensify as the situation worsens. But where will the people go? Already there is an enormous population pressure on the capital city.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that as the sea level rises, about 35 million people from Bangladesh will become environmental refugees by 2050 needing rehabilitation in some other country.
One of the disastrous effects of climate change is likely to be the world's food supply shortage. Scientists predict that global harvests will drop by 20 to 40 per cent by the end of the century due to global warming. How then will Bangladesh tackle the anticipated massive food shortage to be created by its growing population and loss of land due to climate change?
Population growth, a tremendous challenge for Bangladesh must be addressed on priority. Unless tackled, population growth would continue to neutralise economic growth expansion and aggravate poverty.
To curb population growth, Bangladesh could draw lessons from China, where a family is allowed only one child.
The experts have stressed the need for adopting the Chinese population policy of one child per family. But the Chinese policy of one child per family would be difficult to implement due to lack of institutional efficiency.
India which once tried to restrict its population growth through harsh measures had to abandon the programme under tremendous social and religious pressures. Bangladesh's vigorous family planning programme has weakened in recent years with no justifiable reason.
The country adds about 3.0 million people every year. Bangladesh ought to vigorously enforce its law on minimum age for marriage. At the same time, it must discourage people from getting married until they have a steady income and require prospective brides and grooms to attend family planning motivation classes before marriage. Introduction of social security for the elderly also would have a positive impact.
The uneducated rural people need to be motivated to adopt family planning. For example, a simple video presentation on sexuality, health, hygiene, child bearing, family planning, and birth control through a question and answer session could be useful. Special emphasis should be given to inexpensive and relatively safe methods of birth control -- like the timely withdrawal, described by medical science as coitus interruptus. Traditional birth control pills are not popular due to side-effects.
Above all, education is the best motivation for men and women to achieve the goal of population control. The government ought to realise population problem for taking the needed action.
The NGOs could contribute more in achieving the desired goal.
Bangladesh, with 150 million people living in 134,000 sq km, has the dubious distribution of being the seventh largest country in the world in population. Population density of more than 1100 people per sq km, makes the expression 'overpopulated' inadequate. Only a few city states, like Singapore haves greater population density. But there can be no comparison with a city state in population density. The prospect of Bangladesh losing territory due to the rise in sea level makes the outlook far from comfortable.
From about 75 million at the time of independence, the population of Bangladesh has more than doubled in 38 years. The current estimate of Bangladesh's population varies from 1.4 per cent to 1.8 per cent a year, depending on who is doing the assessment. Even if the growth rate is 1.75 per cent a year, the Bangladesh population would double in 40 years. At the growth rate of 1.4 per cent, it would double in 47 years. How serious would the situation when the population of Bangladesh reaches 300 million in 40 or 47 years. To get an idea, one might imagine, the US state of Wisconsin, about the size of Bangladesh, also having a population of 300 million.
Idealists may be quick to point out that Bangladesh is making progress in education and healthcare, with an economic growth rate of about 5.0 per cent a year. Though true, the progress has had a little effect on the overall poverty in the country.
Studies reveal that in real terms the poverty in Bangladesh has gone up. What is responsible for the anomaly? Besides corruption, which benefited a few and slowed down economic growth, rapid population growth must have aggravated poverty by neutralising the gains.
The population growth rate among the educated in Bangladesh has significantly come down. But the rate of growth among the underprivileged, who constitute an overwhelming majority, double that among the educated, continue to swell the nation's population. The poor, customarily prefer more children to supplement their income and provide old age support. They get married early, produce more children, educate or support them to grow up. The irony is that the children born in such environment repeat what their parents did. The obvious upshot is over population.
So, the low population growth among the educated is neutralised by the increase among the underprivileged. The population growth, unless checked, is bound to imperil Bangladesh.
The impact of climate change is putting extra pressure on the limited natural resources of the country. Indeed, the process of migration from the coastal areas, which already began would intensify as the situation worsens. But where will the people go? Already there is an enormous population pressure on the capital city.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that as the sea level rises, about 35 million people from Bangladesh will become environmental refugees by 2050 needing rehabilitation in some other country.
One of the disastrous effects of climate change is likely to be the world's food supply shortage. Scientists predict that global harvests will drop by 20 to 40 per cent by the end of the century due to global warming. How then will Bangladesh tackle the anticipated massive food shortage to be created by its growing population and loss of land due to climate change?
Population growth, a tremendous challenge for Bangladesh must be addressed on priority. Unless tackled, population growth would continue to neutralise economic growth expansion and aggravate poverty.
To curb population growth, Bangladesh could draw lessons from China, where a family is allowed only one child.
The experts have stressed the need for adopting the Chinese population policy of one child per family. But the Chinese policy of one child per family would be difficult to implement due to lack of institutional efficiency.
India which once tried to restrict its population growth through harsh measures had to abandon the programme under tremendous social and religious pressures. Bangladesh's vigorous family planning programme has weakened in recent years with no justifiable reason.
The country adds about 3.0 million people every year. Bangladesh ought to vigorously enforce its law on minimum age for marriage. At the same time, it must discourage people from getting married until they have a steady income and require prospective brides and grooms to attend family planning motivation classes before marriage. Introduction of social security for the elderly also would have a positive impact.
The uneducated rural people need to be motivated to adopt family planning. For example, a simple video presentation on sexuality, health, hygiene, child bearing, family planning, and birth control through a question and answer session could be useful. Special emphasis should be given to inexpensive and relatively safe methods of birth control -- like the timely withdrawal, described by medical science as coitus interruptus. Traditional birth control pills are not popular due to side-effects.
Above all, education is the best motivation for men and women to achieve the goal of population control. The government ought to realise population problem for taking the needed action.
The NGOs could contribute more in achieving the desired goal.