Population explosions in Bangladesh moving towards danger
Md. Serajul Islam Talukder | Friday, 1 August 2008
The high population growth rates of Bangladesh have appeared as the major impediments to its development. The family planning programmes are going on, of course without much of any notable achievement. The domestic and international sources are financing the programmes of some non-government organisations (NGOs) and the government agencies but the successes of the existing programmes are even truly invisible. The Jatiya Sangsad (JS) or material parliament did not earlier take any effective step to address such an issue. This is now exerting adverse impact on the economic growth and welfare of the people. Thus, population growth in Bangladesh has remained independent of family planning programmes and is moving on its own directions.
Population growth rates of Bangladesh, India, China, Japan and Korea [DR] as per the estimates of the ESCAP Population Data Sheet in 2006 grew annually about at 1.7%, 1.5%, 0.6%, 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. The density of population stood at 1035, 344, 138, 388 and 487 per square kilometer in Bangladesh, India, China, Japan and Korea respectively while per capita income of these countries in US dollar stood at 1916, 3308, 6621, 29992 and 21300 respectively in 2006. This means that population growth has been playing an important role of explaining difference in per capita income of these countries
Being a capital shy country, Bangladesh is unable to utilise its various kinds of resources including human. Its saving rate is very low compared with those of India, and China. The investment growth rate as percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) of Bangladesh, India and China stood at 25.6, 32.2 and 42.9 respectively during 2006. The investment growth of Bangladesh is facing pressures from the two fronts: (a) high population growth and (b) low income. If investment rates can not be increased sufficiently, the vicious circle of poverty in Bangladesh is likely to be stronger and longer.
As density of population is gradually increasing in Bangladesh, the cultivable lands are decreasing. Unplanned, unscientific and scattered houses in rural areas in particular are grabbing costly lands. Gradually decreasing spaces are being left for industrialisation, important infrastructures including roads, highways, drainage etc., for restoring environmental and ecological developments. The free spaces and playgrounds for the schools, colleges, universities and other educational institutions even in rural areas are abnormally shrinking while such institutions in urban areas are being housed sometimes in suffocating apartments.
Population pressures are pushing up the price of lands skyrocketing throughout the country. The prices of staple foods and other cereals including rice, wheat, maize, pulse, onions, garlic, gingers, oil seeds, fruits, vegetables and leaves etc., are increasing in competition with the prices of land and vice versa. Low-income people are facing an extreme crisis and losing their access to main foods and other nutritive fruits and vegetables. The production of proteins from cows and fishes is facing challenges as well. The agricultural outputs of Bangladesh are increasingly hampered leading to more dependency on imports. National sufferings, thus, obvious continue.
The legendary fertile lands of Bangladesh have been alarmingly losing strengths and becoming more dependent on chemical fertilisers that might lead to a devastatingly painful at some stage. Lands are not being allowed to have rests for regaining and regenerating strengths. Instead unscientific, disproportionate and reckless uses of chemical fertilisers and insecticides are obstructing the natural and environmental healings. Excessive uses of chemical fertilisers, insecticides and industrial chemical etc., are destroying ecology, polluting ground and underground water flows and natural habitation of birds, beasts and plants in Bangladesh.
Ever shrinking cultivable lands of Bangladesh are scrambling for overuses. The ceaseless cultivations of the lands two or three times a year are developing exhaustion underneath and yet are failing to produce necessary quantity of rice to feed its people. Production of many other important agricultural crops and cereals including jute, sugarcane, fruits and vegetables is receiving mostly a secondary attention. Although production of most agricultural productions has increased substantially compared with the early stages of independence for many reasons including genetic engineering and uses of chemicals but this could not be the sufficient matter of pleasure when lands are losing something more valuable.
The malnutrition of children is on the high alert in Bangladesh. It has been one of the prime reasons for as major epidemics and for causing blindness and other critical diseases leading to physical weaknesses and mental obesity. When family size gets bigger than its income flows, the children are deprived of better care and education. Such an environment generates frustrations and leads them to addiction and immoral activities. Single drug-abused member not only creates intolerable pains in the family but also appears as the ultimate liability for the nation.
The situation is such that the growing population of Bangladesh needs more foods' and other consumer goods supplies. As domestic production is inadequate, imports become essential. Bangladesh requires importing a large quantity of foods, powdered milk and baby foods each year when quantity often gets priority over quality. High population growth is putting insurmountable pressure on the agrarian economy of Bangladesh. Bangladesh has already gathered a bad experience when many countries including neighbours put restrictions on selling of corns during the post cyclone period. God saved us and the food shortage of Bangladesh was temporary and small in quantity. Had the food crises prolonged, then an innumerable number of people would have been died of starvation and the economy would have started to collapse. The story clearly explains that no door will be found open to import corns when greater food crises will visit our globe again. Besides, Bangladesh has not been successful to earn sufficient foreign exchange to support very big food import bills for longer period at high prices. The export growth is not picking up to keep pace with imports and the agro-based products are losing competitive edge in the international markets. Exports of industrial products like garments etc., are also facing a cut-throat competition showing unfavourable terms of trade.
Large-scale migration of potential human resources from Bangladesh like strong and able-bodied working force, promising talents, educated persons, skill labourers and experts are creating a crisis in the supply of skilled human forces in the country. The migrating human resources are working for the development of other countries which will ultimately raise the number of low quality working force in home country. Socio-economic costs become even higher when population growth rate among the poverty-stricken uneducated groups is high. Conversion of these groups of people into effective human resources is difficult and expensive, though not impossible.
Submerging of more and more fertile lands under the saline water in low lying coastal areas has already begun due to global warming. This would emerge as one the greatest challenges for Bangladesh within the next several years when the country would be left with less cultivable lands, if this higher population growth rate is allowed to continue. This would then create acute food shortages.
Some experts believe in award winning innovative models that could improve the livelihood of low and middle-income groups of Bangladesh using fallow lands in and around them. They give priority on childhood malnutrition in Bangladesh and have suggested promoting plantation of vitamin rich fruits and leaves like moringa, (so-called miracle tree of hope) among low-income communities. Such programmes, as claimed, have already improved economic conditions in many African and Asian countries. But the crux of the problem of Bangladesh for improving the economic conditions of its low and middle-income people (majority people) lies somewhere else rather than replication of the readymade model. The shortage of land is acute due to unabated population growth. Thus, slowdown of population growth should be given the topmost priority, before suggesting any development models. Foods and fruits of Bangladesh are very rich in proteins, starch, vitamins and minerals. When the poor children of Bangladesh are starving and sometimes get only one cup of rice a day, then how access to vitamin rich fruits can be ensured. The lands of Bangladesh are being riskily overused. Even homesteads are being used for seedlings and fruit-gardens are being mercilessly brought under paddy (IRRI) cultivation. While many developed countries give subsidies to the farmers for giving rest to the lands for restoring fertility, the scenario of Bangladesh is completely the opposite. However, one should not disagree with innovative programmes of plantation of typical indigenous trees that can ensure supplies of cheap fruits and leaves for the poor children for encountering the problem of soaring food prices in Bangladesh.
One might draw attention, as for example, to the Indian growth model with high population. In that case, it must be remembered that apart from the large difference between the population density between the two countries, India has comparative advantages in many respects in the international markets, which we do not have. That is why Bangladesh imports many Indian crops [rice and wheat], consumer's goods, fruits and vegetables, which it can grow. Besides, as one of the largest countries of the world with enormous natural resources India has already attained remarkable developments in many respects. Therefore, replicating such a development model might be not relevant to Bangladesh. Besides, India might not be able to avoid danger if it allows typical population growth. However, miraculous discoveries like valuable gold and oil mine might offer temporary relief, shadowing hard realities in the long-run.
The culture of small family size in Japan and Korea has been developed probably for raising consciousness, promoting education and fulfilling the need for transferring more wealth and resources to their children. Pakistan is anchored with one of the highest population growth at 1.8% in the south Asiatic region. This might lead to more danger awaiting its future. Better trade relations with the developed partners have, however, helped Pakistan so far even in dealing with political crisis.
Population policies of China are undergoing radical changes as per the demand of circumstances. China has chosen population growth as one of the most suitable parameters and has been successfully controlling population growth rate to ensure its sustainable economic growth. As the religious sentiments in China are not dominant, promulgations of such laws were rather easy. With a population officially just over 1.3 billion and an estimated growth rate of about 0.6%, China is very concerned over its population growth and has attempted with mixed results to implement a strict birth limitation policy. China's 2002 Population and Family Planning Law and policy permit one child per family, with allowance for a second child under certain circumstances, especially in the rural areas, and with guidelines looser for ethnic minorities with small populations. Enforcement varies, and relies largely on "social compensation fees" to discourage extra births. The official policy opposes forced abortion or sterilization, but in some localities there are instances of forced abortion. The government's goal is to stabilise the population in the first half of the 21st century, and current projections are that the population will peak at around 1.6 billion by 2050. Such population policies helped China enormously to sustain average economic growth of over 9.5% for the past 26 years as other economic parameters responded favourably to the needs. In 2006 its $2.68 trillion economy was about one-fifth the size of the U.S. economy.
China is free from religious sentiment and thus, the model of China might not be suitable for Bangladesh. The parliament of Bangladesh probably avoided for taking any attempt to pass effective legislation on population control for its association of religious sentiments, though everybody realizes that Bangladesh has been moving towards an unpalatable situation with its vast population liabilities. Without specific legislations for controlling population, the family planning programmes alone would not be able to bring about success in Bangladesh. Instances of other countries could be examined before formulating and implementing any such legislative regulation.
The writer is a socio-economic researcher and consultant of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Previously he was a Deputy General Manager of the Bangladesh Bank. He may be reached at e-mail: [email protected].
Population growth rates of Bangladesh, India, China, Japan and Korea [DR] as per the estimates of the ESCAP Population Data Sheet in 2006 grew annually about at 1.7%, 1.5%, 0.6%, 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. The density of population stood at 1035, 344, 138, 388 and 487 per square kilometer in Bangladesh, India, China, Japan and Korea respectively while per capita income of these countries in US dollar stood at 1916, 3308, 6621, 29992 and 21300 respectively in 2006. This means that population growth has been playing an important role of explaining difference in per capita income of these countries
Being a capital shy country, Bangladesh is unable to utilise its various kinds of resources including human. Its saving rate is very low compared with those of India, and China. The investment growth rate as percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) of Bangladesh, India and China stood at 25.6, 32.2 and 42.9 respectively during 2006. The investment growth of Bangladesh is facing pressures from the two fronts: (a) high population growth and (b) low income. If investment rates can not be increased sufficiently, the vicious circle of poverty in Bangladesh is likely to be stronger and longer.
As density of population is gradually increasing in Bangladesh, the cultivable lands are decreasing. Unplanned, unscientific and scattered houses in rural areas in particular are grabbing costly lands. Gradually decreasing spaces are being left for industrialisation, important infrastructures including roads, highways, drainage etc., for restoring environmental and ecological developments. The free spaces and playgrounds for the schools, colleges, universities and other educational institutions even in rural areas are abnormally shrinking while such institutions in urban areas are being housed sometimes in suffocating apartments.
Population pressures are pushing up the price of lands skyrocketing throughout the country. The prices of staple foods and other cereals including rice, wheat, maize, pulse, onions, garlic, gingers, oil seeds, fruits, vegetables and leaves etc., are increasing in competition with the prices of land and vice versa. Low-income people are facing an extreme crisis and losing their access to main foods and other nutritive fruits and vegetables. The production of proteins from cows and fishes is facing challenges as well. The agricultural outputs of Bangladesh are increasingly hampered leading to more dependency on imports. National sufferings, thus, obvious continue.
The legendary fertile lands of Bangladesh have been alarmingly losing strengths and becoming more dependent on chemical fertilisers that might lead to a devastatingly painful at some stage. Lands are not being allowed to have rests for regaining and regenerating strengths. Instead unscientific, disproportionate and reckless uses of chemical fertilisers and insecticides are obstructing the natural and environmental healings. Excessive uses of chemical fertilisers, insecticides and industrial chemical etc., are destroying ecology, polluting ground and underground water flows and natural habitation of birds, beasts and plants in Bangladesh.
Ever shrinking cultivable lands of Bangladesh are scrambling for overuses. The ceaseless cultivations of the lands two or three times a year are developing exhaustion underneath and yet are failing to produce necessary quantity of rice to feed its people. Production of many other important agricultural crops and cereals including jute, sugarcane, fruits and vegetables is receiving mostly a secondary attention. Although production of most agricultural productions has increased substantially compared with the early stages of independence for many reasons including genetic engineering and uses of chemicals but this could not be the sufficient matter of pleasure when lands are losing something more valuable.
The malnutrition of children is on the high alert in Bangladesh. It has been one of the prime reasons for as major epidemics and for causing blindness and other critical diseases leading to physical weaknesses and mental obesity. When family size gets bigger than its income flows, the children are deprived of better care and education. Such an environment generates frustrations and leads them to addiction and immoral activities. Single drug-abused member not only creates intolerable pains in the family but also appears as the ultimate liability for the nation.
The situation is such that the growing population of Bangladesh needs more foods' and other consumer goods supplies. As domestic production is inadequate, imports become essential. Bangladesh requires importing a large quantity of foods, powdered milk and baby foods each year when quantity often gets priority over quality. High population growth is putting insurmountable pressure on the agrarian economy of Bangladesh. Bangladesh has already gathered a bad experience when many countries including neighbours put restrictions on selling of corns during the post cyclone period. God saved us and the food shortage of Bangladesh was temporary and small in quantity. Had the food crises prolonged, then an innumerable number of people would have been died of starvation and the economy would have started to collapse. The story clearly explains that no door will be found open to import corns when greater food crises will visit our globe again. Besides, Bangladesh has not been successful to earn sufficient foreign exchange to support very big food import bills for longer period at high prices. The export growth is not picking up to keep pace with imports and the agro-based products are losing competitive edge in the international markets. Exports of industrial products like garments etc., are also facing a cut-throat competition showing unfavourable terms of trade.
Large-scale migration of potential human resources from Bangladesh like strong and able-bodied working force, promising talents, educated persons, skill labourers and experts are creating a crisis in the supply of skilled human forces in the country. The migrating human resources are working for the development of other countries which will ultimately raise the number of low quality working force in home country. Socio-economic costs become even higher when population growth rate among the poverty-stricken uneducated groups is high. Conversion of these groups of people into effective human resources is difficult and expensive, though not impossible.
Submerging of more and more fertile lands under the saline water in low lying coastal areas has already begun due to global warming. This would emerge as one the greatest challenges for Bangladesh within the next several years when the country would be left with less cultivable lands, if this higher population growth rate is allowed to continue. This would then create acute food shortages.
Some experts believe in award winning innovative models that could improve the livelihood of low and middle-income groups of Bangladesh using fallow lands in and around them. They give priority on childhood malnutrition in Bangladesh and have suggested promoting plantation of vitamin rich fruits and leaves like moringa, (so-called miracle tree of hope) among low-income communities. Such programmes, as claimed, have already improved economic conditions in many African and Asian countries. But the crux of the problem of Bangladesh for improving the economic conditions of its low and middle-income people (majority people) lies somewhere else rather than replication of the readymade model. The shortage of land is acute due to unabated population growth. Thus, slowdown of population growth should be given the topmost priority, before suggesting any development models. Foods and fruits of Bangladesh are very rich in proteins, starch, vitamins and minerals. When the poor children of Bangladesh are starving and sometimes get only one cup of rice a day, then how access to vitamin rich fruits can be ensured. The lands of Bangladesh are being riskily overused. Even homesteads are being used for seedlings and fruit-gardens are being mercilessly brought under paddy (IRRI) cultivation. While many developed countries give subsidies to the farmers for giving rest to the lands for restoring fertility, the scenario of Bangladesh is completely the opposite. However, one should not disagree with innovative programmes of plantation of typical indigenous trees that can ensure supplies of cheap fruits and leaves for the poor children for encountering the problem of soaring food prices in Bangladesh.
One might draw attention, as for example, to the Indian growth model with high population. In that case, it must be remembered that apart from the large difference between the population density between the two countries, India has comparative advantages in many respects in the international markets, which we do not have. That is why Bangladesh imports many Indian crops [rice and wheat], consumer's goods, fruits and vegetables, which it can grow. Besides, as one of the largest countries of the world with enormous natural resources India has already attained remarkable developments in many respects. Therefore, replicating such a development model might be not relevant to Bangladesh. Besides, India might not be able to avoid danger if it allows typical population growth. However, miraculous discoveries like valuable gold and oil mine might offer temporary relief, shadowing hard realities in the long-run.
The culture of small family size in Japan and Korea has been developed probably for raising consciousness, promoting education and fulfilling the need for transferring more wealth and resources to their children. Pakistan is anchored with one of the highest population growth at 1.8% in the south Asiatic region. This might lead to more danger awaiting its future. Better trade relations with the developed partners have, however, helped Pakistan so far even in dealing with political crisis.
Population policies of China are undergoing radical changes as per the demand of circumstances. China has chosen population growth as one of the most suitable parameters and has been successfully controlling population growth rate to ensure its sustainable economic growth. As the religious sentiments in China are not dominant, promulgations of such laws were rather easy. With a population officially just over 1.3 billion and an estimated growth rate of about 0.6%, China is very concerned over its population growth and has attempted with mixed results to implement a strict birth limitation policy. China's 2002 Population and Family Planning Law and policy permit one child per family, with allowance for a second child under certain circumstances, especially in the rural areas, and with guidelines looser for ethnic minorities with small populations. Enforcement varies, and relies largely on "social compensation fees" to discourage extra births. The official policy opposes forced abortion or sterilization, but in some localities there are instances of forced abortion. The government's goal is to stabilise the population in the first half of the 21st century, and current projections are that the population will peak at around 1.6 billion by 2050. Such population policies helped China enormously to sustain average economic growth of over 9.5% for the past 26 years as other economic parameters responded favourably to the needs. In 2006 its $2.68 trillion economy was about one-fifth the size of the U.S. economy.
China is free from religious sentiment and thus, the model of China might not be suitable for Bangladesh. The parliament of Bangladesh probably avoided for taking any attempt to pass effective legislation on population control for its association of religious sentiments, though everybody realizes that Bangladesh has been moving towards an unpalatable situation with its vast population liabilities. Without specific legislations for controlling population, the family planning programmes alone would not be able to bring about success in Bangladesh. Instances of other countries could be examined before formulating and implementing any such legislative regulation.
The writer is a socio-economic researcher and consultant of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Previously he was a Deputy General Manager of the Bangladesh Bank. He may be reached at e-mail: [email protected].