Population growth neutralises economic gain
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Mohammad Sadeq
THERE can, of course, be no oversimplified explanation of poverty in Bangladesh. Nonetheless, economists measure poverty by splitting the national pie for each citizen. The formula is simple. Take the net national product (NNP) or the total national income minus depreciations and leakages in a given year and divide it by the total number of the population. That should yield the amount available to each member of the population or the per capita income.
But per capita income is not a foolproof reflector of the monetary resources available to every member of a country's population. There may be concentration of wealth in fewer hands or coteries. Unequal distribution of wealth and income between regions and population segments would distort the picture as some or many individuals could actually possess or earn many times more than the average per capita income. But that is another aspect.
Per capita income, on the whole and generally, is the best that economists can rely on to get a fairly reliable picture of resources available per head for consumption in a country. The per capita income estimate, right or wrong, gives a clue as to the purchasing power of people and the level of their standard of living.
Dividing the current NNP of Bangladesh (as measured by the official figures) by approximately 150 million people, the country's per capita income comes to about $500. It shows the relationship between the population and per capita income. Supposing, the Bangladesh population last year was only half of the actual number, i.e. 75 million, which actually was the population at the time of the independence of the country, the per capita income now would be nearly US$ 1000. Population growth has reduced this potentiality of Bangladesh's per capita income. Though its economic growth in the current decade places Bangladesh in the fifth position among the top 16 high growth countries of the world, it does not reflect its per capita income because of the simultaneous growth in population above the preferred level.
Even if Bangladesh's economic growth rate accelerates to double digits over the next two decades, its per capita income is unlikely to rise accordingly because population growth would neutralise the gains. The government estimates population growth at 1.48 per cent. The unofficial estimate puts the growth rate higher. Even by official estimates Bangladesh population would be 180 million in the next quarter century. The inadequacy of population control activities is to blame for it. Without checking population growth, it would be impossible for Bangladesh to significantly increase its per capita income in the near future, no matter how well the economy grows.
An example would make it clear. China with over double digit economic growth for decades has a per capita income of $2,912 compared to $46,716 of the US, with no matching growth. The reason is the sheer size of the Chinese population.
The policy planners in Bangladesh must emphasise population control. It is an imperative for Bangladesh to derive the gains out of its economic advancement. Population control is a neglected area in Bangladesh but it should get the highest priority. People are tired of listening to platitudes like a large population is not a liability and that Bangladesh can swiftly turn it into productive manpower. To prevent an economic catastrophe, Bangladesh needs to curb its population growth. The efforts to cut down poverty on a sustainable basis would be neutralised unless Bangladesh checks its population growth.
THERE can, of course, be no oversimplified explanation of poverty in Bangladesh. Nonetheless, economists measure poverty by splitting the national pie for each citizen. The formula is simple. Take the net national product (NNP) or the total national income minus depreciations and leakages in a given year and divide it by the total number of the population. That should yield the amount available to each member of the population or the per capita income.
But per capita income is not a foolproof reflector of the monetary resources available to every member of a country's population. There may be concentration of wealth in fewer hands or coteries. Unequal distribution of wealth and income between regions and population segments would distort the picture as some or many individuals could actually possess or earn many times more than the average per capita income. But that is another aspect.
Per capita income, on the whole and generally, is the best that economists can rely on to get a fairly reliable picture of resources available per head for consumption in a country. The per capita income estimate, right or wrong, gives a clue as to the purchasing power of people and the level of their standard of living.
Dividing the current NNP of Bangladesh (as measured by the official figures) by approximately 150 million people, the country's per capita income comes to about $500. It shows the relationship between the population and per capita income. Supposing, the Bangladesh population last year was only half of the actual number, i.e. 75 million, which actually was the population at the time of the independence of the country, the per capita income now would be nearly US$ 1000. Population growth has reduced this potentiality of Bangladesh's per capita income. Though its economic growth in the current decade places Bangladesh in the fifth position among the top 16 high growth countries of the world, it does not reflect its per capita income because of the simultaneous growth in population above the preferred level.
Even if Bangladesh's economic growth rate accelerates to double digits over the next two decades, its per capita income is unlikely to rise accordingly because population growth would neutralise the gains. The government estimates population growth at 1.48 per cent. The unofficial estimate puts the growth rate higher. Even by official estimates Bangladesh population would be 180 million in the next quarter century. The inadequacy of population control activities is to blame for it. Without checking population growth, it would be impossible for Bangladesh to significantly increase its per capita income in the near future, no matter how well the economy grows.
An example would make it clear. China with over double digit economic growth for decades has a per capita income of $2,912 compared to $46,716 of the US, with no matching growth. The reason is the sheer size of the Chinese population.
The policy planners in Bangladesh must emphasise population control. It is an imperative for Bangladesh to derive the gains out of its economic advancement. Population control is a neglected area in Bangladesh but it should get the highest priority. People are tired of listening to platitudes like a large population is not a liability and that Bangladesh can swiftly turn it into productive manpower. To prevent an economic catastrophe, Bangladesh needs to curb its population growth. The efforts to cut down poverty on a sustainable basis would be neutralised unless Bangladesh checks its population growth.