Post-election Iraq
Thursday, 1 April 2010
IRAQ seems to be bracing for a protracted period of political uncertainties following the March 7 election to the 325-seat parliament of the country. No party or alliance won the necessary 163-seat simple majority to form the next government. According to the final results published by Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) on March 26, al-Iraqiya, with 91 seats, emerged as the largest alliance, the State of Law came second with 89 seats, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) third with 70 seats and the Kurdistan Alliance fourth with 43 seats. The Iraqiya also won the highest number of popular votes -- 2,851,823 votes against 2,797, 624 votes gathered by the State of Law. The Iraqiya is led by Iraq's former interim prime minister Iyad Allawi and the State of Law by the incumbent prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. Allawi and Maliki are vying to form the next government while INA leader Moktada al-Sadr, who is now in self-exile in Iran, will obviously play the role of the kingmaker.
But the arithmetic of parliamentary seats and popular votes alone will not decide the power struggle between Allawi and Maliki. For one thing, Iraq is a factious polity -- divided sectarianly between Shias, Sunnis and Kurds and also on tribal lines. Both Allawi and Maliki are Shias, but the former "has always had the persona of the non-sectarian political figure" which helped him poll Sunni votes massively in the election and the latter upholds sectarian Shia politics. Moktada al-Sadr is a radical Shia clerical leader. The Kurds are no friends either of the Shias or the Sunnis but their vital interests in the oil-rich province of Kirkuk clash with that of the Sunnis. Secondly, though America is the occupying power, Iran has tremendous political pull in predominantly Shia Iraq. Iran is yet to react on the Iraqi election.
The most destabilising factor is Maliki's penchant for brinkmanship. He has already got Iraq's Supreme Federal Court to give an interpretation of the term, "the parliamentary bloc with the most members" in Iraq's constitution which virtually neutralises the two-seat plurality of Allawi. According to the Supreme Court ruling, which is binding, the leader who will command the support of the most members when the parliament is convened -- probably in June -- will be called upon by the President to form the new government. And members are free to switch parties at will. Simultaneously with this legal move, Maliki, who continues as prime minister in the interim period until a new prime minister takes office, has also pressed into service the government's Accountability and Justice Commission -- formerly known as De-Bathification Commission -- to disqualify as many as 52 members of parliament, most of them from Allawi's electoral alliance. Maliki is defiant and vows: "No way we will accept the results [as announced on March 26]. These are preliminary results." Allawi, on the other hand, exudes confidence and maintains: "The Iraqi people have honoured the Iraqiya list and chose it to be the basis of forming the new government".
Meanwhile, as Allawi and Maliki wrestle to cobble together a majority in the parliament, the Americans are scheduled to withdraw all combat troops from Iraq in August. In this critical period, what Iraq needed most is a stable and credible government. But there is hardly any possibility that the March 7 election will produce such a government. It is though too early to fear that the political wrangling may affect the withdrawal schedule of American troops, the prospect of returning peace to Iraq in near future is really bleak.
But the arithmetic of parliamentary seats and popular votes alone will not decide the power struggle between Allawi and Maliki. For one thing, Iraq is a factious polity -- divided sectarianly between Shias, Sunnis and Kurds and also on tribal lines. Both Allawi and Maliki are Shias, but the former "has always had the persona of the non-sectarian political figure" which helped him poll Sunni votes massively in the election and the latter upholds sectarian Shia politics. Moktada al-Sadr is a radical Shia clerical leader. The Kurds are no friends either of the Shias or the Sunnis but their vital interests in the oil-rich province of Kirkuk clash with that of the Sunnis. Secondly, though America is the occupying power, Iran has tremendous political pull in predominantly Shia Iraq. Iran is yet to react on the Iraqi election.
The most destabilising factor is Maliki's penchant for brinkmanship. He has already got Iraq's Supreme Federal Court to give an interpretation of the term, "the parliamentary bloc with the most members" in Iraq's constitution which virtually neutralises the two-seat plurality of Allawi. According to the Supreme Court ruling, which is binding, the leader who will command the support of the most members when the parliament is convened -- probably in June -- will be called upon by the President to form the new government. And members are free to switch parties at will. Simultaneously with this legal move, Maliki, who continues as prime minister in the interim period until a new prime minister takes office, has also pressed into service the government's Accountability and Justice Commission -- formerly known as De-Bathification Commission -- to disqualify as many as 52 members of parliament, most of them from Allawi's electoral alliance. Maliki is defiant and vows: "No way we will accept the results [as announced on March 26]. These are preliminary results." Allawi, on the other hand, exudes confidence and maintains: "The Iraqi people have honoured the Iraqiya list and chose it to be the basis of forming the new government".
Meanwhile, as Allawi and Maliki wrestle to cobble together a majority in the parliament, the Americans are scheduled to withdraw all combat troops from Iraq in August. In this critical period, what Iraq needed most is a stable and credible government. But there is hardly any possibility that the March 7 election will produce such a government. It is though too early to fear that the political wrangling may affect the withdrawal schedule of American troops, the prospect of returning peace to Iraq in near future is really bleak.