Power and gas: the double whammy facing nation
Tuesday, 12 February 2008
Syed Fattahul Alim
Power and gas are the two most vital ingredients of modern life. And what is of further import is the production of power is contingent upon the steady supply of gas to the power generation units of the country. But the supply of gas and combined with it that of power, too, is gradually diminishing through the power grids and the gas pipelines. This is a kind of predicament that the country is facing since long. The more is the delay in addressing the dual problem of gas and power, the more will it become complicated to grapple with the crisis in the future.
To say that the power supply situation in the country has reached crisis proportions is to say the least. The fear is in the coming summer, the frequency of disruptions in power supply may further increase compared to any time in the past. The impact of this severe irregularity in power supply will undoubtedly be telling on the day to day life of the people as well as on the business and industry. If the gas supply also becomes equally erratic, the worse will come to the worst.
Let us first look at the situation of power. Scarcity of gas flow in the pipelines has already set off a chain effect leading to closure of three of the power generation units that slashed the production of power by 500 megawatts. The power generation units at Rauzan, Shikalbaha and the Rural Power Company Ltd. (RPCL), are hard hit as a consequence of the gas crisis.
The total power generated in the country is about 3500 megawatts. This amount of power can hardly meet the actual demand for power. Apart from the demands of the industries, the shopping centres, offices and household users, the crop fields especially during the irrigation season draw huge quantity of power. In this season, the demand for power in the irrigation fields may go as high as 1,000 megawatts in proportion to the increase in the number of pumps recently.
Meanwhile, the power production in the existing plants has not increased by a single watt, whereas the demand for the same has increased by 11 per cent. But the gap will continue to widen every year by yet bigger margins with the increase in its demand. How is the government going to face up to this challenge posed by power, especially when 90 per cent of the power plants which are fired by gas are starved of gas? The prospect is grim, especially after 2011 when the all the proven reserves of gas are depleted. According to Petrobangla, the entire gas reserve of the country including the proven and the probable stocks will go dry by 2015. If that is the case, then what fate is awaiting the existing power plants run by gas, not to mention the six others scheduled to be installed under the power system master plan to ensure supply of power to all by 2020. The question then remains is under what consideration did the government undertake the medium term power projects to ensure supply of power projects by 2020? And what will happen to the power plants thus scheduled for installation once fuel supply to those plants tapers off within the forecasted period?
But is also not the portrayal of the future that looks so dismal. The present scenario of the gas supply situation, too. is not rosy either. According to reports, the country would face a shortfall of 200 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) this year alone in absence of appropriate and timely steps to develop the gas pipelines. The port city of Chittagong that controls the economic lifeline of the country is already facing a daily shortage of 50 mmcf of gas. The crisis in Chittagong, however, has been created after the gas production in the offshore Sangu gas field dropped to the present level. To keep the pulse of the economy throbbing, it has become necessary to keep the supply line of gas active through setting up gas pipelines connecting the gas fields that have sufficient reserves and are already in operation. It is learnt that at the beginning of last year the Petrobangla recommended a pipeline project to supply high pressure gas from one of the oldest and biggest gas fields, the Titas gas field, to the Ashuganj-Bakhrabad (AB) pipeline to solve the ongoing crisis in Chittagong. It is said that the pipeline project could be completed within a short time to ensure gas supply within the soonest possible time. But reportedly the project has been shoved under the carpet and instead a bigger pipeline project connecting Chittagong and Ashuganj is under consideration of the authorities concerned. Obviously, if this far more costly and time consuming pipeline project wins the go ahead signal from the competent authorities in stead of the Petrobangla-proposed low cost and less time consuming one, then the comparative merits or the demerits of the two pipeline project proposals aside, the prospect of finding a prompt solution to the gas crisis will become uncertain.
But these are all about issues clamouring for immediate addressing and they cannot simply wait. What is worse, in the particular context of Bangladesh, the fine line separating the short-term and long-term solution to the energy need based on gas blurs into insignificance, once the harsh truth becomes glaringly evident that the basic premise of all these considerations is so fragile. Put briefly, the gas on which all the proposed pipeline and power projects hinge is getting depleted too fast.
The primacy of the energy issue and its judicious and pragmatic handling should therefore be a matter of ultimate concern for the incumbent as well as the governments of the future. Truth be told, the crisis is precipitating to a point of no return. But to all appearances, the preparations afoot do not match the urgency of the situation.
It is time foolproof strategies are undertaken to exploit the proven and the prospective gas sites both onshore and offshore so that the supply of the basic fuel continues uninterrupted in the power plants, fertiliser industries, the steel mills and other commercial users as well as the household lines. At the same time, the government needs also to devise an exit strategy so that the nation and its economy are not made to suffer a terrible shock of shift from one energy base to another or the lack of it.
Power and gas are the two most vital ingredients of modern life. And what is of further import is the production of power is contingent upon the steady supply of gas to the power generation units of the country. But the supply of gas and combined with it that of power, too, is gradually diminishing through the power grids and the gas pipelines. This is a kind of predicament that the country is facing since long. The more is the delay in addressing the dual problem of gas and power, the more will it become complicated to grapple with the crisis in the future.
To say that the power supply situation in the country has reached crisis proportions is to say the least. The fear is in the coming summer, the frequency of disruptions in power supply may further increase compared to any time in the past. The impact of this severe irregularity in power supply will undoubtedly be telling on the day to day life of the people as well as on the business and industry. If the gas supply also becomes equally erratic, the worse will come to the worst.
Let us first look at the situation of power. Scarcity of gas flow in the pipelines has already set off a chain effect leading to closure of three of the power generation units that slashed the production of power by 500 megawatts. The power generation units at Rauzan, Shikalbaha and the Rural Power Company Ltd. (RPCL), are hard hit as a consequence of the gas crisis.
The total power generated in the country is about 3500 megawatts. This amount of power can hardly meet the actual demand for power. Apart from the demands of the industries, the shopping centres, offices and household users, the crop fields especially during the irrigation season draw huge quantity of power. In this season, the demand for power in the irrigation fields may go as high as 1,000 megawatts in proportion to the increase in the number of pumps recently.
Meanwhile, the power production in the existing plants has not increased by a single watt, whereas the demand for the same has increased by 11 per cent. But the gap will continue to widen every year by yet bigger margins with the increase in its demand. How is the government going to face up to this challenge posed by power, especially when 90 per cent of the power plants which are fired by gas are starved of gas? The prospect is grim, especially after 2011 when the all the proven reserves of gas are depleted. According to Petrobangla, the entire gas reserve of the country including the proven and the probable stocks will go dry by 2015. If that is the case, then what fate is awaiting the existing power plants run by gas, not to mention the six others scheduled to be installed under the power system master plan to ensure supply of power to all by 2020. The question then remains is under what consideration did the government undertake the medium term power projects to ensure supply of power projects by 2020? And what will happen to the power plants thus scheduled for installation once fuel supply to those plants tapers off within the forecasted period?
But is also not the portrayal of the future that looks so dismal. The present scenario of the gas supply situation, too. is not rosy either. According to reports, the country would face a shortfall of 200 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) this year alone in absence of appropriate and timely steps to develop the gas pipelines. The port city of Chittagong that controls the economic lifeline of the country is already facing a daily shortage of 50 mmcf of gas. The crisis in Chittagong, however, has been created after the gas production in the offshore Sangu gas field dropped to the present level. To keep the pulse of the economy throbbing, it has become necessary to keep the supply line of gas active through setting up gas pipelines connecting the gas fields that have sufficient reserves and are already in operation. It is learnt that at the beginning of last year the Petrobangla recommended a pipeline project to supply high pressure gas from one of the oldest and biggest gas fields, the Titas gas field, to the Ashuganj-Bakhrabad (AB) pipeline to solve the ongoing crisis in Chittagong. It is said that the pipeline project could be completed within a short time to ensure gas supply within the soonest possible time. But reportedly the project has been shoved under the carpet and instead a bigger pipeline project connecting Chittagong and Ashuganj is under consideration of the authorities concerned. Obviously, if this far more costly and time consuming pipeline project wins the go ahead signal from the competent authorities in stead of the Petrobangla-proposed low cost and less time consuming one, then the comparative merits or the demerits of the two pipeline project proposals aside, the prospect of finding a prompt solution to the gas crisis will become uncertain.
But these are all about issues clamouring for immediate addressing and they cannot simply wait. What is worse, in the particular context of Bangladesh, the fine line separating the short-term and long-term solution to the energy need based on gas blurs into insignificance, once the harsh truth becomes glaringly evident that the basic premise of all these considerations is so fragile. Put briefly, the gas on which all the proposed pipeline and power projects hinge is getting depleted too fast.
The primacy of the energy issue and its judicious and pragmatic handling should therefore be a matter of ultimate concern for the incumbent as well as the governments of the future. Truth be told, the crisis is precipitating to a point of no return. But to all appearances, the preparations afoot do not match the urgency of the situation.
It is time foolproof strategies are undertaken to exploit the proven and the prospective gas sites both onshore and offshore so that the supply of the basic fuel continues uninterrupted in the power plants, fertiliser industries, the steel mills and other commercial users as well as the household lines. At the same time, the government needs also to devise an exit strategy so that the nation and its economy are not made to suffer a terrible shock of shift from one energy base to another or the lack of it.