Power Sector: A dilemma for the government
Monday, 11 April 2011
Shammunul Islam and M. Mizanur Rahman
Bangladesh is dreaming of lifting itself into a middle income country out of its present status as one among the 49 least developed countries (LDCs). With the hard work and innovativeness of the Bangladeshi entrepreneurs and industrialists, it plans to stride forward in this direction. But with the phantom of power crisis looming overhead, this ambition gets seriously dented. With per capita consumption of only 236 kilowatts, we should have a feasible and clear energy policy that can actually help towards achieving energy security. The present government assumed office with the mantra of 'Vision 2021' which said a comprehensive long-term policy on electricity and energy would be adopted and oil, gas, coal, hydro power, wind and solar energy would be used for electricity generation. It further maintained that coal extraction and oil and gas exploration would be the prioritised issues. The vision did rightly emphasise this as fossil fuel can not be expected to last forever and at one point of time we have to go for a different approach. Diversification of fuel source is the need of the time. This calls for both forward-looking planning, and retrospective examination of our previous steps to identify what went wrong. Let us first look at the very basic input for electricity -- gas. So what is about it? It does not seem to hold at this stage a bright future for us. We do not have an accurate estimate about the gas reserve of Bangladesh. According to one estimate, it would be replenished in the year 2020. If that is so, we need to look back at our past strategies and look forward to our future contingencies. The problem that is prevailing now, has its root in the production side and in the administration, and more precisely in the governance system associated with it. This is where all went wrong. Short-sighted traits of the country's policy-makers are now exposed. The widespread use of compressed natural gas (CNG), resulted into its fast depletion. Policymakers have now realised that there is not enough gas for power generation and that something has to be done quickly. If gas shortage could have been averted, 600 MW power would have been generated. Poor pipelines also contribute to the under-performance of the gas sector. Just by removing production bottlenecks, a significant amount of gas could be produced. We can add another 7.0 trillion cubic feet (TCF) from existing gas fields and can even discover another 10.0 TCF onshore and shallow offshore. Thus, there can be additional 17 TCF gas which is more than double of our proven gas reserve of 7.0 TCF. So modernisation, replacement and expansion operation of existing plants should be done. Bangladesh has seven coal mines with an estimated reserve of 2.5 billion metric tonnes, valued worth over $100 billion. The government of Bangladesh is planning to generate 5,000mw of electricity by using underground coal gasification (UCG) technology in the country's deepest coalfield at Jamalganj. Given the case of Phulbaria and cave-in at Barapukuria, the exploration and use of coal in Bangladesh remain debatable. There are substantial reserves of coal in Jamalganj and Rajshahi areas which lie at a depth, in excess of 900 metres. This endangers the prospect of exploitation as it is both difficult and expensive. The country has to import coal from China, India and Indonesia spending more than ten billion takas each year. If GDP growth rate goes up to 8.0 per cent, we will need 450 million metric tonnes of coal to generate the necessary power. Mining our own coal will save money and make our industries sustainable. Open cast mining can extract 70-84 per cent of our coal reserve while underground mining can extract only 16 per cent. But due to its adverse effect on environment and on livelihood, open cast mining is often discouraged. If the people are generously compensated for their land and jobs, and if government can gain confidence of the people, it is not difficult to overcome the problem on this count. The government has to ensure it to the people that they will get their land after some years. Moreover, the mining will make the area a place of opportunity in the future. It will create jobs as well as ensure other community facilities like establishment of schools and hospitals etc. The north-western part of Bangladesh is relatively less densely populated and it is possible to relocate displaced people. And with the application of modern technology, it would be possible to get back the degraded landscape within a short period of time. It is time for us to decide whether this coal deposit will remain unused and intact underground, or be used for power generation for our energy-starved industry. To meet the energy demand of the country, the government is going for costly rental power plants. This may help alleviate our present power crisis but it cannot be a long-term, sustainable solution. With rapid installations of such power plants and with many others in the pipeline, the present government expects to achieve 11,000mw productions within its tenure. The government seems to be very sincere about its efforts for putting in place a merchant power plant policy and understanding the initiative for taking foreign coalmines on lease. At present, Barapukuria Coal Mining Company produces 3000 tonnes a day. By 2015, the demand would shoot up to 50,000 tonnes a day. We can not afford to rely on coal for long as our coal reserve is getting depleted quickly. Hence coal cannot be a sustainable energy solution for Bangladesh. Last year solar power saw an increase of 90 per cent, making Bangladesh the fastest growing market for renewable energy. The high installation cost of solar PV is a big barrier to its successful implementation. According to energy experts, solar power costs 30 to 35 cents per kilowatt-hour as against 5.0 to 6.0 cents for both coal and nuclear power. This higher cost impedes its large scale application. Other renewable sources such as fuel cell and wind power which have much potential also suffer from this high cost. The nuclear power is the source of energy which could provide us electricity at a lower cost. Conceived nearly five decades ago, the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant project has not been able to see the light due to political indecision and bureaucratic tangles. Bangladesh and Russia already signed a framework agreement for Russian cooperation for Bangladesh's first nuclear plant. It aims at producing at least 2,000 megawatts of electricity by 2020 from two units and if everything goes in accordance with the stipulated targets, it will account for 10 per cent of total power generation in Bangladesh by that time. The chairman of the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC), Mr. Farid Uddin said this plant is assumed to absorb a tremor of 9.5 or 10 on richter scale. According to the BAEC, 'third generation' reactors would be used which would not face the same threat as was faced by 'second generation' reactors at Fukushima. If we look at the history of tremor, we will see that an earthquake of a very high magnitude is just around the corner. We are also seeing regular occurrence of mild tremors. So we will always be faced questions about the safety of this nuclear power plant. Another very alarming fact is that ours is a very densely populated country. So in case of any radiation fall-out we will be encountering a disaster of a much greater degree. Yet another big problem would be in areas of nuclear waste. Such waste has an unbelievably life-time period. Thus waste disposal will just add to the problem. There is no denying that we have to explore all ways for meeting our energy demand for achieving a healthy growth. In the light of the concerns that were noted above, it will be imperative to follow prudent policy, based on considerations of benefits and costs. The dilemma; thus, before government is about while course of policy action will serve the best interests of the country. Should it embrace ambitious energy projects (for example, hydropower, and venturing into nuclear energy) as the main source of energy, or stick to traditional forms of energy? The government, as the reports suggest, is going for an energy-mix. In this context, it has to keep itself abreast all the latest developments in the sector. Then it should take appropriate short- and long-term plans suiting its capacity and affordability. Shammunul Islam is a freelance writer and can be reached at email: sha_is13@yahoo.com and M. Mizanur Rahman is a development researcher and can be reached at e-mail: mithunmds07@gmail.com
Bangladesh is dreaming of lifting itself into a middle income country out of its present status as one among the 49 least developed countries (LDCs). With the hard work and innovativeness of the Bangladeshi entrepreneurs and industrialists, it plans to stride forward in this direction. But with the phantom of power crisis looming overhead, this ambition gets seriously dented. With per capita consumption of only 236 kilowatts, we should have a feasible and clear energy policy that can actually help towards achieving energy security. The present government assumed office with the mantra of 'Vision 2021' which said a comprehensive long-term policy on electricity and energy would be adopted and oil, gas, coal, hydro power, wind and solar energy would be used for electricity generation. It further maintained that coal extraction and oil and gas exploration would be the prioritised issues. The vision did rightly emphasise this as fossil fuel can not be expected to last forever and at one point of time we have to go for a different approach. Diversification of fuel source is the need of the time. This calls for both forward-looking planning, and retrospective examination of our previous steps to identify what went wrong. Let us first look at the very basic input for electricity -- gas. So what is about it? It does not seem to hold at this stage a bright future for us. We do not have an accurate estimate about the gas reserve of Bangladesh. According to one estimate, it would be replenished in the year 2020. If that is so, we need to look back at our past strategies and look forward to our future contingencies. The problem that is prevailing now, has its root in the production side and in the administration, and more precisely in the governance system associated with it. This is where all went wrong. Short-sighted traits of the country's policy-makers are now exposed. The widespread use of compressed natural gas (CNG), resulted into its fast depletion. Policymakers have now realised that there is not enough gas for power generation and that something has to be done quickly. If gas shortage could have been averted, 600 MW power would have been generated. Poor pipelines also contribute to the under-performance of the gas sector. Just by removing production bottlenecks, a significant amount of gas could be produced. We can add another 7.0 trillion cubic feet (TCF) from existing gas fields and can even discover another 10.0 TCF onshore and shallow offshore. Thus, there can be additional 17 TCF gas which is more than double of our proven gas reserve of 7.0 TCF. So modernisation, replacement and expansion operation of existing plants should be done. Bangladesh has seven coal mines with an estimated reserve of 2.5 billion metric tonnes, valued worth over $100 billion. The government of Bangladesh is planning to generate 5,000mw of electricity by using underground coal gasification (UCG) technology in the country's deepest coalfield at Jamalganj. Given the case of Phulbaria and cave-in at Barapukuria, the exploration and use of coal in Bangladesh remain debatable. There are substantial reserves of coal in Jamalganj and Rajshahi areas which lie at a depth, in excess of 900 metres. This endangers the prospect of exploitation as it is both difficult and expensive. The country has to import coal from China, India and Indonesia spending more than ten billion takas each year. If GDP growth rate goes up to 8.0 per cent, we will need 450 million metric tonnes of coal to generate the necessary power. Mining our own coal will save money and make our industries sustainable. Open cast mining can extract 70-84 per cent of our coal reserve while underground mining can extract only 16 per cent. But due to its adverse effect on environment and on livelihood, open cast mining is often discouraged. If the people are generously compensated for their land and jobs, and if government can gain confidence of the people, it is not difficult to overcome the problem on this count. The government has to ensure it to the people that they will get their land after some years. Moreover, the mining will make the area a place of opportunity in the future. It will create jobs as well as ensure other community facilities like establishment of schools and hospitals etc. The north-western part of Bangladesh is relatively less densely populated and it is possible to relocate displaced people. And with the application of modern technology, it would be possible to get back the degraded landscape within a short period of time. It is time for us to decide whether this coal deposit will remain unused and intact underground, or be used for power generation for our energy-starved industry. To meet the energy demand of the country, the government is going for costly rental power plants. This may help alleviate our present power crisis but it cannot be a long-term, sustainable solution. With rapid installations of such power plants and with many others in the pipeline, the present government expects to achieve 11,000mw productions within its tenure. The government seems to be very sincere about its efforts for putting in place a merchant power plant policy and understanding the initiative for taking foreign coalmines on lease. At present, Barapukuria Coal Mining Company produces 3000 tonnes a day. By 2015, the demand would shoot up to 50,000 tonnes a day. We can not afford to rely on coal for long as our coal reserve is getting depleted quickly. Hence coal cannot be a sustainable energy solution for Bangladesh. Last year solar power saw an increase of 90 per cent, making Bangladesh the fastest growing market for renewable energy. The high installation cost of solar PV is a big barrier to its successful implementation. According to energy experts, solar power costs 30 to 35 cents per kilowatt-hour as against 5.0 to 6.0 cents for both coal and nuclear power. This higher cost impedes its large scale application. Other renewable sources such as fuel cell and wind power which have much potential also suffer from this high cost. The nuclear power is the source of energy which could provide us electricity at a lower cost. Conceived nearly five decades ago, the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant project has not been able to see the light due to political indecision and bureaucratic tangles. Bangladesh and Russia already signed a framework agreement for Russian cooperation for Bangladesh's first nuclear plant. It aims at producing at least 2,000 megawatts of electricity by 2020 from two units and if everything goes in accordance with the stipulated targets, it will account for 10 per cent of total power generation in Bangladesh by that time. The chairman of the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC), Mr. Farid Uddin said this plant is assumed to absorb a tremor of 9.5 or 10 on richter scale. According to the BAEC, 'third generation' reactors would be used which would not face the same threat as was faced by 'second generation' reactors at Fukushima. If we look at the history of tremor, we will see that an earthquake of a very high magnitude is just around the corner. We are also seeing regular occurrence of mild tremors. So we will always be faced questions about the safety of this nuclear power plant. Another very alarming fact is that ours is a very densely populated country. So in case of any radiation fall-out we will be encountering a disaster of a much greater degree. Yet another big problem would be in areas of nuclear waste. Such waste has an unbelievably life-time period. Thus waste disposal will just add to the problem. There is no denying that we have to explore all ways for meeting our energy demand for achieving a healthy growth. In the light of the concerns that were noted above, it will be imperative to follow prudent policy, based on considerations of benefits and costs. The dilemma; thus, before government is about while course of policy action will serve the best interests of the country. Should it embrace ambitious energy projects (for example, hydropower, and venturing into nuclear energy) as the main source of energy, or stick to traditional forms of energy? The government, as the reports suggest, is going for an energy-mix. In this context, it has to keep itself abreast all the latest developments in the sector. Then it should take appropriate short- and long-term plans suiting its capacity and affordability. Shammunul Islam is a freelance writer and can be reached at email: sha_is13@yahoo.com and M. Mizanur Rahman is a development researcher and can be reached at e-mail: mithunmds07@gmail.com