Pressure for political dialogue mounts

A Minister is reported to have said recently that if the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) did not give up its demand for fresh elections, the current government's term would be extended for a year beyond 2019! The Minister failed to realise   the implications of his statement in his eagerness to tease and taunt the BNP. He in fact underlined the BNP's claim that the Awami League (AL) does not believe in democracy and that it wants to establish one-party BAKSAL system in the country. The statement also placed in jeopardy the AL's other claim as the flag bearer of the spirit of 1971. No one from the party came forward to contradict him. Therefore the Minister's statement will go down for the records to return one day to haunt the ruling party when its leaders would no more have the audacity of power to make such un-democratic claims.
Further, the Minister made his claim in the context of a government that has serious questions hanging over it on the issue of legitimacy. The January 05 elections were held without the participation of 33 of the country's 45 registered parties, including the BNP. The results were extremely devastating. First, less than 10 per cent of the registered voters went to the polls. Second, that was the more damaging outcome of the January 05 elections, was the fact that 154 of the 300 members of the parliament did not have to bother the voters at all and became members of parliament (MPs) without even a single vote to show against their names. Finally, Bangladesh's development partners and the United Nations have questioned the January 05 elections and called for fresh elections.
There have been concerted attempts by the ruling party leaders in recent weeks to convince the people that the countries that had objected to the January 05 elections were no longer insisting on fresh elections. They used the Prime Minister's visits to Japan and China to argue their case. However, their efforts notwithstanding, the pressure on the government for dialogue, leading to fresh elections, is mounting. When the President and the UN Secretary General met in New York recently, the latter advocated for dialogue with political parties in parliament as well as outside, leading to new elections in the country. The EU Ambassador William Hanna, who is scheduled to leave Bangladesh shortly, said in one of his recent interactions with the media that the EU (European Union) stand has also not changed and that it expected the political parties would start dialogue soon, leading to new inclusive national elections.
The strongest stand for fresh, "inclusive" elections in Bangladesh have come from the United States. In her confirmation hearing before the Senate, Ambassador-designate to Bangladesh Marcia Stephens Bloom Bernicat made a written submission in which she has termed the January 05 elections "undeniably flawed" and that the main political parties "urgently need to engage in constructive dialogue that leads to a more representative government". The statement suggests that the US has strengthened its call for fresh "inclusive" elections. Her statement bears special significance because it is the articulated position of the State Department, the White House and the Congress. The US stand suggests coordination and urgency among the western powers to place pressure on the government for dialogue against the backdrop of threat of movement by the BNP/Jamaat.
The Minister of Information responded to the building pressure for dialogue. He warned the US Ambassador-designate to "shut up" and advised her to ask the BNP leader not to hobnob with the "terrorists." The people, however, are not convinced by such warnings. They feel that the ruling party should not dismiss the call for dialogue from the country's development partners because it is a promise that it had made while holding the January 05 elections claiming that those elections were necessary for upholding the Constitution and that fresh elections might be held once the constitutional necessity was set aside. They further feel that if the BNP had decided not to hold elections again after their own flawed elections of February 1996, that were a lot better than the January 05 elections (28 per cent voted in those elections and 47 retuned without the need of a vote), the AL would have turned the country on its head to force new elections.
The people also do not dismiss the BNP's decision for a movement the way the ruling party do claiming that the BNP is incapable of leading a movement. The people know it better that the BNP and Jamaat had for months succeeded in bringing the country to a standstill in the run up to January 05 elections. They also know that the government did not collapse as a consequence of the powerful BNP/Jamaat movement because it was able to hold on to Dhaka through the use of brutal and ruthless force. They further know that it was because of the BNP/Jamaat movement that the January 05 elections were  "evidently flawed" with 90 per cent of the voters either not going to vote or not required to vote.  The people are afraid that the ruling party, by teasing and taunting the BNP/Jamaat, together with its policy of not allowing them any space for democratic protest, is pushing the country towards a conflict that could be worse than the country witnessed before the January 05 elections.
The people are also concerned that the ruling party, in its eagerness to ridicule the BNP/Jamaat, is in denial over the changed political realities. First, the AL-led government is not the same now as it was before the January 05 elections. Until the January 05 elections, it was in power with a massive mandate. It is in power now with serious issues concerning its legitimacy. Second, meanwhile, the people's frustration with the government has enhanced manifold across a wide array of issues and law and order was never so bad as it is today. Third, RAB and police, that were used to ruthlessly browbeat the opposition before, are now discredited. Finally, the Congress is no longer in power in New Delhi. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Government will not come to its assistance when a movement against it starts as the Congress Government had done during the BNP/Jamaat movement leading to the January 05 elections.
Former Adviser to the caretaker government Dr.  Akbar Ali Khan got it right when he said recently that there could be an explosion any moment because of deep discontent that now prevails in the country. There are instances in the country's history where party's weak organisation did not hinder successful political movements. Therefore, the perceived weakness of the BNP upon which the ruling party is tauntingly dismissing the threat of a movement, will not stop one now. There has not been a better cause for political movement since 1971, namely the restoration of people's right to vote and restoration of the spirit of 1971. The people want that right because they also believe it is the antidote to the current discontent that could destroy the country. The AL-led government therefore should heed the country's friends and engage in talks with the opposition for fresh elections and bring the country from the brink. Asking Ambassador Bernicat to "shut up" would not serve anyone's purpose, least of all those of the ruling party and the country.
The writer is a retired                        career Ambassador.                    [email protected]