Prevalence of hunger halved but inequality increasing

A notable feature of poverty reduction between 2005 and 2010 was a significant decline in the incidence of extreme poverty. The percentage of population under the lower poverty line, the threshold for extreme poverty, decreased by 29.6 per cent (or by 7.4 percentage points), from 25 per cent of the population in 2005 to 17.6 per cent in 2010. The incidence of extreme poverty declined by 47 per cent in urban areas and 26 per cent in rural areas. The estimated figures of poverty for 2011-2015 period are shown in Table 2.
The remarkable progress in respect of eradication of poverty was largely possible due to decline in population growth rate and changing population structure, increase in labour income, improved infrastructural and telecommunication connectivity, internal migration for formal and informal employment and the government's targeted safety net programmes. Inclusive and robust growth has resulted in an impressive poverty reduction, on an average, at 1.74 percentage points per year during the 2000 to 2010 period. Using the long-term decline in poverty incidence between 2000 and 2010, the headcount ratio in the terminal year of MDGs is estimated to be 22.73 per cent, where extreme poverty will decrease to 8.97 per cent of the population.  
POVERTY GAP RATIO: Poverty gap ratio is the mean distance separating the population from the poverty line (with the non-poor being given a distance of zero), expressed as a percentage of the poverty line. The ratio is an indicator of the depth of poverty. It measures the aggregate income deficit of the poor relative to the poverty line, and gives an estimate of the resources needed to raise the poor above the poverty line.  
It is evident from Figure 2 that reduction in the poverty gap ratio in Bangladesh has been quite significant. The poverty gap ratio has declined from 17.20 in 1991-92 to 12.90 in 2000, 9.00 in 2005 and further to 6.50 in 2010. Thus Bangladesh has already achieved the target of halving the poverty gap, i.e., 8.6, which was targeted to be achieved in 2015. Moreover, this target is achieved both in rural and urban areas.    
SQUARED POVERTY GAP: Figure 3 shows that the severity of poverty has declined from 6.8 in 1991-92 to only 2.0 in 2010 with similar declining trend in both rural and urban areas. However, both poverty gap and squared poverty gap measures indicate that the depth and severity of rural poverty has always been higher than those of urban poverty in Bangladesh.
It is clear from Figure 4 that in 1991-92, the poorest quintile had 6.52 per cent share of national income. The share fell to 5.26 per cent in 2005 and further to 5.22 per cent in 2010 implying increasing income inequality between the rich and the poor. Hence, appropriate interventions are required so that higher benefits of economic growth can reach the poorest quintile limiting increasing inequality.
It is, however, interesting to note, that the share of the poorest quintile in national consumption was 8.76 per cent in 2005 (Figure 5) which marginally increased to 8.85 per cent in 2010. The increment is greater in urban areas than in rural areas, although the share of the poorest quintile in national consumption was higher in the rural areas than in the urban areas in both 2005 and 2010. This shows that the present pattern of growth favours the poorest groups more than other groups so that the share of the poorest households in national consumption has been showing a rising trend.    
To have a better understanding of the trend in inequality, the coefficients of income Gini and expenditure Gini from 1991-92 to 2010 are presented in Table 3. It is evident that during these periods, inequality has increased in the country. However, the level of inequality has remained somewhat stable over the last ten years at the national level as reflected in the coefficient of income Gini, although the coefficient of expenditure Gini was slightly reduced during the same period. Rural Bangladesh experienced a moderate increase in income inequality (0.39 in 2000 to 0.43 in 2010) although inequality as reflected in expenditure Gini remained stable during the same period.
HIES 2010 shows that per capita daily calorie intake at the national level has significantly increased from 2,238.5 kcal in 2005 to 2,318.3 kcal in 2010 thereby reversing the declining trend reported in previous surveys. Significant increase in per capita daily calorie intake might be due to changing food habit of the people as well as increase in quantity of food consumption (Figure 6).
According to the 'State of Food Insecurity (SOFI) 2012'[The State of Food Insecurity in the World: Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient to accelerate reduction of hunger and malnutrition, FAO, Rome, 2012], Bangladesh has prevalence of halved the hunger over the last two decades. The report indicates that the proportion of hungry people in total population of Bangladesh was reduced from 34.6 per cent in 1990 to 16.8 per cent in 2012. During the same period (1990-2012), the number of hungry people in Bangladesh has reduced from 37 million in 1990 to 25 million in 2012. According to SOFI 2012, Bangladesh fared well when compared in the global and regional perspective.  Similarly, according to the Global Hunger Index (GHI) Report 2013, Bangladesh has improved its rank ten steps improved in the GHI in 2013 to 58th position from 68th position in 2012, which was 70th position in 2011.
REGIONAL DIMENSIONS OF POVERTY REDUCTION: Looking at the regional dimension, the poverty outcomes show a similarly declining pattern. All the six divisions of Bangladesh have registered significant reduction in the incidence of poverty (Figure 7). Even so, the gaps in poverty rates across divisions remain substantial. Rajshahi Division has the highest rate of poverty (39.4 per cent), which is significantly higher than the national average (31.5 per cent), whereas the Chittagong Division exhibits the lowest poverty incidence (26.2 per cent), which is much lower than the national average. Rajshahi and Khulna similarly show higher poverty incidence than the national average, whereas Sylhet and Dhaka have lower than national average poverty levels.
Some facts of the dynamics of poverty at the district and sub-district levels of Bangladesh are found following the poverty maps of 2005 and 2010:
a) Regional distribution of changes in poverty rate is more or less same for both upper and lower poverty lines. Variations in regional poverty rates are found to be distributed similarly when considering either the upper poverty line or lower poverty line. The changes follow similar patterns across the country, even in the north-west and southern coastal belt of the country.  
b) In the north-west region, poverty rate has decreased in almost all sub-districts. The north-western region has experienced almost a universal reduction in poverty rates in the time period under consideration. This can be attributed to the greater connectivity of the north-western part with the growth centres such as Dhaka due to the Bangabandhu Bridge. Similar patterns of poverty reduction are also seen in the south-eastern parts that constitute the Chittagong Division which has been known as the commercial hub of the country.
c) A substantial number of sub-districts experienced an increase in moderate poverty as well as extreme poverty. Although the overall poverty scenario has improved for the country, 158 and 144 sub-districts are seen to have experienced increased rates of poverty using the UPL and LPL respectively.
d) Increase in poverty is higher in the eastern part than in the western part of the country. Between 2005 and 2010, the country has experienced higher reduction in poverty rate in its western portion compared to the east. The rate of reduction is highest in the southern regions of Barguna and Patuakhali and also in some parts of Nilphamari. One of the plausible reasons in higher out-migration of poor household to growth centres of the country.
e) Though the rate of poverty has declined, the north-west is still the most poverty-stricken region in the country. The coastal belt in the south has now become the hotspot of extreme poverty which is the most ecologically disadvantaged areas. While this observation is not incorrect, the north-west still remains the most poverty-stricken region in the country, especially Kurigram district. Kurigram has become the poorest district of the country in terms of both upper and lower poverty lines in 2010 - 63.7 per cent moderate poor and 44.3 per cent extreme poor live in this district.
f) Most of the poor are extreme poor in greater Sylhet region. It is interesting to observe that all top 20 sub-districts with highest proportion of extreme poor in total poor are from greater Sylhet region in 2010. More than 85 per cent of the poor are extreme poor according to poverty map based on HIES 2010 in Gowainghat and Kanaighat sub-districts of Sylhet districts and Jury sub-district of Moulvibazar district.
g) Hill Tracts region is no longer in the list of 20 most poverty-stricken sub-districts. In 2005, Alikadam of Bandarban district was the poorest (upper line) sub-district in the country. Four other sub-districts of Bandarban-Thanchi, Ruma and Rowangachhari and Naikhongachhari  - were also in the list of the 20 most poverty-stricken sub-districts in the country in 2005. However, in 2010, none of these sub-districts was in the list - making them the sub-districts which are among the highest level of poverty reduction in the period 2005-10.
Professor Shamsul Alam is Member (Senior Secretary), General Economics Division (GED), Bangladesh Planning Commission. He led the preparation of the Sixth Five-Year Plan (2011-15) and is leading the preparation of the Seventh Five-Year Plan (2016-20) which is at the final stage now. The article is adapted from a paper prepared for the participants of National Defence Course (NDC), Dhaka and  presented on May 18, 2015 at Defence College, Mirpur. In preparing the paper research support was provided by Mohd. Monirul Islam, Deputy Chief, GED, Planning Commission.