Prospects in the December 29 polls
Saturday, 13 December 2008
Enayet Rasul
Only sixteen days are remaining before the holding of the polls. The event is now the centre-point of national attention and also considerably the international one. The most eager questions in the minds of all concerned is : who has the better chance of tipping the scales in its favour in the polls.
There are but only two sides mainly in the election--- one led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the other led by the Bangladesh Awami League. Thus, one of them has to be the winner and the other the loser. Thus, it is the right time to make an assessment about which side has better prospects.
To do that, one has to look backward as well as forward. It is not a very easy situation anymore to make the calculations so easily. If the election was held when it became due two years ago, then there would be one set of calculations. The same may not hold water after about nearly two years . A great deal has changed in this period ; many things have dimmed or faded in people's memories ; new considerations and new thinking have crept in to replace the previous ones. Thus, making projections about the victors and the vanquished in the national election of Bangladesh on December 29, 2008 has become a lot more difficult than the postponed election in 2007.
What would be the outcome if polls were held in early 2007 after the end of the tenure of the last elected BNP government ? It was anybody's guess at that time. The BNP as a political organization had become thoroughly discredited . Its mass appeal had dropped very low from its politically imperious behaviour, allegations of misrule and corruption. On the other hand, its main challenger --the Awami League--was seen to be gaining in people's esteem for carrying out the right struggle against a government accused of high-handed policies and seeking to face the election through manipulations. In that situation, predicting a victory of the Awami League, was an easy and objective exercise.
But can we say the same thing now ? We cannot as the BNP has had a good opportunity to rehabilitate its image in these last nearly twenty four months. The period has been a long one in which much of the imprinting in the minds of people about the failings and excesses of the BNP period have started to fade. More significantly, the no less failures of the caretaker government in solving basic problems of people such as price control and corruption, have also led to rethinking among them. Many of them must have thought that if a caretaker government manned by technocrats and committed to absolutely cleaning corruption and meeting the main aspirations of the people in the economic sense, can do so little and disappoint the people so massively, then what was so specially wrong with the BNP ?
People in general are getting a poor message that no government in Bangladesh can quite solve problems to the degree that is required or necessary and it was, therefore, wrong to pin all blame on the last elected BNP government for their troubles. The recovery of BNP's image has been rather helped by Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC). ACC recently declared that its investigations have yielded that Begum Zia did not possess wealth or properties in such quantities that the same could be considered as illegitimately acquired. Thus, this clean bill for honesty extended to her from the ACC and corruption cases against other BNP leaders made null and void by rulings of the High Court, all of these developments aided to form an impression in people's mind that BNP was deliberately targeted for persecution and did not deserve the pummeling it received at the hands of the caretaker government. Thus, it should come as no surprise if Begum Khaleda Zia and her party is starting to enjoy a new resurgence of sympathy and understanding among previously disgruntled voters.
The outcome of these cross-currents is that it has made election result forecasting much more difficult than previously. The spacing or pushing back of the election by two years has indirectly come to the rescue of the BNP. The field has become much more a level playing one for it than the one in early 2007 when it could face a rout if elections were punctually held at that time.
The General Secretary of BNP made a very interesting remark recently. He is not the one known for making charitable or uncaring remarks. That is why what he said that BNP would accept the results of the elections whatever these may be, a particularly eyebrow raising one to someone . He or she would think that BNP so far has been very rigid in not showing any signs that it wants to be more flexible and wants a real change in the political culture. Why then this sudden expression of liberal attitude on its part ? Could it be that it has very recently conducted thoroughly its own research into election prospects and found out that the same have improved quite a lot giving it a winning chance ? It is unlikely that BNP wants to give up easily its option of disapproving or protesting the election results. Only a scent of victory and the confidence derived from it, has probably worked on its General Secretary to make such a remark.
Only sixteen days are remaining before the holding of the polls. The event is now the centre-point of national attention and also considerably the international one. The most eager questions in the minds of all concerned is : who has the better chance of tipping the scales in its favour in the polls.
There are but only two sides mainly in the election--- one led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the other led by the Bangladesh Awami League. Thus, one of them has to be the winner and the other the loser. Thus, it is the right time to make an assessment about which side has better prospects.
To do that, one has to look backward as well as forward. It is not a very easy situation anymore to make the calculations so easily. If the election was held when it became due two years ago, then there would be one set of calculations. The same may not hold water after about nearly two years . A great deal has changed in this period ; many things have dimmed or faded in people's memories ; new considerations and new thinking have crept in to replace the previous ones. Thus, making projections about the victors and the vanquished in the national election of Bangladesh on December 29, 2008 has become a lot more difficult than the postponed election in 2007.
What would be the outcome if polls were held in early 2007 after the end of the tenure of the last elected BNP government ? It was anybody's guess at that time. The BNP as a political organization had become thoroughly discredited . Its mass appeal had dropped very low from its politically imperious behaviour, allegations of misrule and corruption. On the other hand, its main challenger --the Awami League--was seen to be gaining in people's esteem for carrying out the right struggle against a government accused of high-handed policies and seeking to face the election through manipulations. In that situation, predicting a victory of the Awami League, was an easy and objective exercise.
But can we say the same thing now ? We cannot as the BNP has had a good opportunity to rehabilitate its image in these last nearly twenty four months. The period has been a long one in which much of the imprinting in the minds of people about the failings and excesses of the BNP period have started to fade. More significantly, the no less failures of the caretaker government in solving basic problems of people such as price control and corruption, have also led to rethinking among them. Many of them must have thought that if a caretaker government manned by technocrats and committed to absolutely cleaning corruption and meeting the main aspirations of the people in the economic sense, can do so little and disappoint the people so massively, then what was so specially wrong with the BNP ?
People in general are getting a poor message that no government in Bangladesh can quite solve problems to the degree that is required or necessary and it was, therefore, wrong to pin all blame on the last elected BNP government for their troubles. The recovery of BNP's image has been rather helped by Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC). ACC recently declared that its investigations have yielded that Begum Zia did not possess wealth or properties in such quantities that the same could be considered as illegitimately acquired. Thus, this clean bill for honesty extended to her from the ACC and corruption cases against other BNP leaders made null and void by rulings of the High Court, all of these developments aided to form an impression in people's mind that BNP was deliberately targeted for persecution and did not deserve the pummeling it received at the hands of the caretaker government. Thus, it should come as no surprise if Begum Khaleda Zia and her party is starting to enjoy a new resurgence of sympathy and understanding among previously disgruntled voters.
The outcome of these cross-currents is that it has made election result forecasting much more difficult than previously. The spacing or pushing back of the election by two years has indirectly come to the rescue of the BNP. The field has become much more a level playing one for it than the one in early 2007 when it could face a rout if elections were punctually held at that time.
The General Secretary of BNP made a very interesting remark recently. He is not the one known for making charitable or uncaring remarks. That is why what he said that BNP would accept the results of the elections whatever these may be, a particularly eyebrow raising one to someone . He or she would think that BNP so far has been very rigid in not showing any signs that it wants to be more flexible and wants a real change in the political culture. Why then this sudden expression of liberal attitude on its part ? Could it be that it has very recently conducted thoroughly its own research into election prospects and found out that the same have improved quite a lot giving it a winning chance ? It is unlikely that BNP wants to give up easily its option of disapproving or protesting the election results. Only a scent of victory and the confidence derived from it, has probably worked on its General Secretary to make such a remark.