Reaching target of renewable energy capacity a race against time

When it comes to sustainable energy policy, it is of course about switching to the non-polluting and less expensive renewable alternative. So, how far has the world progressed in that direction since the global movement for decarbonisation started? Frankly speaking, not much. In fact, fossil energy is still the main source of the world's energy use. Electricity, that drives most of the global industries is produced from fossil fuel. According to a Reuters report, last year (2023), 60 per cent of the world's electricity came from fossil fuel. Some of the major economies sourced 50 per cent of their power from fossil fuels. The United States, for instance, had 59 per cent of its power from fossil fuel. Similarly, China's share was 65 per cent, India's 75 per cent, Japan's 63 per cent, Poland's 73 per cent, Turkey's 57 per cent and so on. These statistics call into question the target of achieving the global net-zero carbon footprint, i.e. achieving zero carbon emission, by 2050 as pushed for at the last United Nations climate change conference (COP28) held in Dubai, UAE, between November 30 and December 12, 2023. Since the effort towards clean energy transition or decarbonisation started through holding UN's first COP conference in 1995, so far about three decades have passed. But the progress to that end so far cannot be said to have been at the expected level. Even so, the money spent on decarbonisation is considerable. In the year (1995) when the first COP was held in Berlin, Germany, the amount of money invested in clean energy worldwide was reportedly US$7.0 billion. Going by the International Energy Agency (IEA) data, in 2023, that investment by both governments and the private sectors had gone up to US$1.7 trillion. Of that amount US$659 billion went to producing renewable power such as solar, wind and so on. The rest of the amount was spent on electric vehicles, storage batteries, nuclear power, etc. The IEA further informs that between 2015 and 2023, government and private sector together invested US$11.7 trillion on clean energy. This is, according an estimate, equivalent to the production of goods and services by world's three large economies-Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom-together in 2023. Strangely though, in about three decades since the first COP was held in 1995 till 2022, according the data provided by the Statistical Review of World Energy, worldwide, the use of fossil fuels increased by 58.6 per cent. Item-wise, oil consumption increased by 34.2 per cent, natural gas by 86.7 per cent and coal by 72.7 per cent. So, where has the trillions of dollar worth of investment in clean energy gone? True,in three decades, with the expansion of global economy, the consumption of energy has increased manifold. Understandably, the clean energy produced during this period could not significantly offset the use of fossil-based energy. A slight improvement, though, could be achieved. For example, in 1995, fossil fuels' contribution to the world's energy was 85.6 per cent, while in 2022 it was 81.8 per cent. In other words, in 27 years, the use of fossil fuel-based energy fell by a mere 3.8 per cent. No doubt, the use of renewable energy, meanwhile, increased from 0.6 per cent to 7.5 per cent. Obviously, it is just a drop in the ocean considering the overall energy need of the global economy. In the coming decades, with the expansion of the global economy at a still faster rate than before, world's energy use is also going to increase multiple times. Where is that energy going to come from, if not from whatever is left of Mother Nature's fossil fuel reserve? It is also not hard to guess from the ongoing wars, formation of various military-cum-economic blocs, how desperate are the world's leading economies to keep control over the regions with large fossil fuel reserves. Clearly, the movement of transitioning to clean energy is facing overwhelming challenges for the galloping demand for energy. The rate at which development of renewable energy and related technology is taking place, it is highly improbable that the target of a net-zero carbon footprint could be achieved within the stipulated time.
That apart, the challenge before a developing economy like Bangladesh is acuter. As a growing economy, its energy demand is also growing at a more rapid rate with the passage of time. So, how is Bangladesh going to continue its economic growth, meet the target of decarbonisation and source its fast-growing energy needs at the same time?
Admittedly, the country is not in a position to meet all its energy needs by importing fuel from abroad. In that case, the cleaner option to meet its energy need by using renewables like solar, wind and hydropower would be a compulsion rather than one of choice. But at the same time, rather than going for import, which the economy in its present stage can hardly afford, the country will have to redouble its efforts to explore its fossil fuels, especially natural gas reserves, to reduce its dependence on imported fuels.
Though according to the Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan 2022-2041, the renewable energy capacity target by 2030 has been fixed between 6,000 MW and 16,000 MW, the target does not seem achievable within the six years' time left. That is more so, because so far the production capacity of renewable energy has only reached about 10 per cent of the target at 689 MW in total. So that the target should be set at a level which is achievable, while at the same time increase efforts to install more solar power plants in the country.

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