Reform is the only route to stability for Kenya
Friday, 28 December 2007
John Githongo
TWO days after Christmas, Kenyans will vote in a general election that will shape more than just the future of Kenya itself. A stable Kenya helps hold together a rough neighbourhood that includes Sudan and Somalia. A prosperous, globalised Kenya, where the spread of mobile telephones has spawned a new generation of entrepreneurs, should be an example for the region. Kenya is where a million tourists a year form their impressions of the continent of Africa. Hence my concern for the future of my country, from which I chose to exile myself three years ago.
The intensity of the election could not have been foreseen at the beginning of this year, when President Mwai Kibaki's patchy coalition seemed to be heading for certain victory. Robust economic growth, a booming stock exchange and urban housing sector as well as burgeoning tourism and the advent of free primary education were among their claimed achievements. It helped that the opposing coalition of Raila Odinga, Mr Kibaki's main rival for the presidency, was splitting and included individuals who had been integral to the rapacious incompetence of former president Daniel arap Moi.
But instead of a clear run to a second presidential term, Mr Kibaki's campaign has foundered. Most of the country - outside the Central Province, where his Kikuyu ethnic group dominates, and Eastern Province, where it has ethnic allies - has thrown support behind Mr Odinga, an ethnic Luo. What caused this realignment?
Kenya's post-colonial constitution vests inordinate political power in the presidency. Mr Kibaki has defended this status quo with enthusiasm despite promising a revised constitution after the 2002 election. The first-past-the-post electoral system hands these powers to the victor and, in the imagination of most Kenyans, to his ethnic group - in Mr Kibaki's case Kenya's largest, comprising up to 25 per cent of the population. Many believe that this occurs to the exclusion of the other four large ethnic groupings that make up close to 60 per cent of the population, as well as to Kenya's 52 smaller groupings. Even if the country as a whole develops, the ethnic group of the president can expect to "develop" exponentially. While donors and the middle class crow about abstract economic growth statistics, ordinary people ask: for whom is the economy growing?
In present-day Kenya, the "growth" that should have won the government broad popularity has instead led to cynicism and envy along ethnic lines. Corruption, accompanied by the conspicuous consumption of a ruling elite perceived to be from one part of the country, has intensified suspicions. The truth is that Kenya's recent rapid economic growth has meant precious little to the masses. It is government spending associated with that growth that the average Kenyan should see, feel and touch. That has flowed at only a modest trickle. Kikuyus counter that a natural penchant for industry and capital accumulation puts them at the heart of the economy by default.
These realities will inform choices at the ballot box. The campaign has been accompanied by ferocious mobilisation along ethnic lines. To hardline members of the ruling - mainly Kikuyu - elite, Mr Odinga has become the sum of their historical fears: he is a Luo - from a community whose elite has engendered deep mistrust of the Kikuyu elite through a history of betrayals. He is also seen as an unconstrained populist, whose talk of equitable distribution masks a desire to divvy up what the Kikuyus have grown and built.
To Mr Odinga's hardline supporters, Mr Kibaki and his lieutenants exemplify the worst of Kikuyu arrogance and greed. The desire to teach the Kikuyu a lesson is strong enough to explain the popularity of the Orange Democratic Movement coalition.
Whatever the outcome, little will change without comprehensive constitutional reform and a credible anti-corruption programme. Better management of presidential powers will be crucial to a stable future for Kenya. There is a significant minority willing to tolerate a mild economic reversal in the event of an Odinga victory, if that is the price that has to be paid for a correction to what is perceived as an unjust status quo. Whether Mr Odinga would be able to carry out the necessary reforms is another matter. Kenya's future prosperity and stability are at stake.
(The writer is former permanent secretary in charge of governance and ethics in the Kenya government, who fled to exile in the UK in 2005. He is now a senior associate member of St Antony's College, Oxford.)
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— FT Syndication Service
TWO days after Christmas, Kenyans will vote in a general election that will shape more than just the future of Kenya itself. A stable Kenya helps hold together a rough neighbourhood that includes Sudan and Somalia. A prosperous, globalised Kenya, where the spread of mobile telephones has spawned a new generation of entrepreneurs, should be an example for the region. Kenya is where a million tourists a year form their impressions of the continent of Africa. Hence my concern for the future of my country, from which I chose to exile myself three years ago.
The intensity of the election could not have been foreseen at the beginning of this year, when President Mwai Kibaki's patchy coalition seemed to be heading for certain victory. Robust economic growth, a booming stock exchange and urban housing sector as well as burgeoning tourism and the advent of free primary education were among their claimed achievements. It helped that the opposing coalition of Raila Odinga, Mr Kibaki's main rival for the presidency, was splitting and included individuals who had been integral to the rapacious incompetence of former president Daniel arap Moi.
But instead of a clear run to a second presidential term, Mr Kibaki's campaign has foundered. Most of the country - outside the Central Province, where his Kikuyu ethnic group dominates, and Eastern Province, where it has ethnic allies - has thrown support behind Mr Odinga, an ethnic Luo. What caused this realignment?
Kenya's post-colonial constitution vests inordinate political power in the presidency. Mr Kibaki has defended this status quo with enthusiasm despite promising a revised constitution after the 2002 election. The first-past-the-post electoral system hands these powers to the victor and, in the imagination of most Kenyans, to his ethnic group - in Mr Kibaki's case Kenya's largest, comprising up to 25 per cent of the population. Many believe that this occurs to the exclusion of the other four large ethnic groupings that make up close to 60 per cent of the population, as well as to Kenya's 52 smaller groupings. Even if the country as a whole develops, the ethnic group of the president can expect to "develop" exponentially. While donors and the middle class crow about abstract economic growth statistics, ordinary people ask: for whom is the economy growing?
In present-day Kenya, the "growth" that should have won the government broad popularity has instead led to cynicism and envy along ethnic lines. Corruption, accompanied by the conspicuous consumption of a ruling elite perceived to be from one part of the country, has intensified suspicions. The truth is that Kenya's recent rapid economic growth has meant precious little to the masses. It is government spending associated with that growth that the average Kenyan should see, feel and touch. That has flowed at only a modest trickle. Kikuyus counter that a natural penchant for industry and capital accumulation puts them at the heart of the economy by default.
These realities will inform choices at the ballot box. The campaign has been accompanied by ferocious mobilisation along ethnic lines. To hardline members of the ruling - mainly Kikuyu - elite, Mr Odinga has become the sum of their historical fears: he is a Luo - from a community whose elite has engendered deep mistrust of the Kikuyu elite through a history of betrayals. He is also seen as an unconstrained populist, whose talk of equitable distribution masks a desire to divvy up what the Kikuyus have grown and built.
To Mr Odinga's hardline supporters, Mr Kibaki and his lieutenants exemplify the worst of Kikuyu arrogance and greed. The desire to teach the Kikuyu a lesson is strong enough to explain the popularity of the Orange Democratic Movement coalition.
Whatever the outcome, little will change without comprehensive constitutional reform and a credible anti-corruption programme. Better management of presidential powers will be crucial to a stable future for Kenya. There is a significant minority willing to tolerate a mild economic reversal in the event of an Odinga victory, if that is the price that has to be paid for a correction to what is perceived as an unjust status quo. Whether Mr Odinga would be able to carry out the necessary reforms is another matter. Kenya's future prosperity and stability are at stake.
(The writer is former permanent secretary in charge of governance and ethics in the Kenya government, who fled to exile in the UK in 2005. He is now a senior associate member of St Antony's College, Oxford.)
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— FT Syndication Service