Reforms in Burma, turmoil in Thailand

Anthony Deutsch of Reuters in Bali and Ben Bland of FT in Hanoi South-east Asian foreign ministers said they would back Burma's efforts to take up the rotating leadership of the 10-nation Asean region in 2014 -- reflecting a mood of optimism about recent reforms in the long-isolated nation. The decision was announced late this week at a summit of the Association's political leaders on the Indonesian island of Bali. Barack Obama, US president, attended the summit as part of his Asia- Pacific tour and have met leaders from 18 countries, including Russia, China, Japan. The Asean decision comes after Burma's newly elected civilian leadership released more than 200 political prisoners in October and initiated steps toward parliamentary elections after 50 years of brutal military rule. Critics had cautioned that Burma should not be permitted to assume the 12-month Asean leadership because of its poor human rights record. But signs of improvement in the country, most notably the release from house arrest last year of de facto opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and the easing of some media restrictions, have improved its image. "We are trying to ensure that the process of change continues, the process is irrevocable and the momentum is maintained," said Marty Natalegawa, Indonesian foreign minister. "All the leaders agree significant changes have taken place and this makes it more conducive for [Burma] to make more reforms." The move was also supported by Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party. "Their [Asean's] decision is tantamount to encouraging the present Myanmar government to step up the momentum for reforms," Nyan Win, a senior official in the NLD, told the news agency. "I think that Myanmar's political activities will become more vibrant after assuming the chair and Myanmar will also become a quality member of Asean," he said. Yet the NLD also called for the release of nearly 600 other political prisoners it says are still in custody. Concerns about the continued suppression of freedoms were echoed by Mr Obama, who addressed developments in Burma during a speech to Australia's parliament last Thursday before flying to Indonesia. The year's Asean summit has been expanded to include China and the US for the first time at the Indonesian meeting. Among other main themes, discussed, are the region's rising economic importance, trade co-operation and security in the South China Sea, although Beijing has said the meeting is not the appropriate forum for such discussions. China is likely to pledge Rmb3bn ($473m) for co-operation in maritime industries with south-east Asian countries, a senior Indonesian official indicated earlier. The proposal was earlier raised by Wen Jiabao, Chinese premier, during a meeting with Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Indonesian president, said Teuku Faizasyah, a presidential spokesman, in Bali. "China said it plans to set up a fund for maritime co-operation with Asean and is preparing about 3.0bn yuan to develop co-operation in maritime industries," he said. He did not elaborate on what sectors might be included nor provide a time frame. Meanwhile, a bitter dispute has broken out over claims that the Thai government is pushing for a royal pardon for Thaksin Shinawatra, the exiled former prime minister. The feud threatens to bring renewed instability in politically divided Thailand. The government is already facing criticism for its response to the worst floods in 50 years, which have killed more than 500 people and devastated important industrial and agricultural areas. Mr Thaksin, who was ousted in a coup in 2006, remains a divisive figure in Thailand. Loved by the rural poor for the populist policies of cheap healthcare and village loans that marked his six years in power, he is still detested by powerful elements within the establishment for his autocratic leadership style. The government, headed by Mr Thaksin's younger sister Yingluck, is working on the terms of an annual pardon of prisoners to coincide with the 84th birthday of Thailand's revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world's longest-reigning monarch, on December 5. Opposition politicians, newspapers and activists claim the prisoner release is being engineered to allow Mr Thaksin, who lives in exile in Dubai to avoid a two-year prison sentence for corruption, to return unblemished. Leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy, whose "yellow shirt" supporters have organised large protests in opposition to Mr Thaksin and his allies, have warned that they will take to the streets again if the government seeks to pardon him. "There are people on both sides willing to take extreme measures," said Michael Montesano, an expert on Thai politics at Singapore's Institute of South-east Asian Studies. Korn Chatikavanij, a former finance minister and a senior member of the opposition Democrat party, said any move to pardon Mr Thaksin threatened to trigger another outbreak of political instability. Ninety-one people were killed in 2010 when the army clashed with "red shirt" protesters demonstrating against the then Democrat government. "This issue, blatantly serving the interests of one single person at a time when the Thai people feel this government hasn't served their interests, could well be the last straw on the camel's back," he said. Political analysts believe the government is determined to bring Mr Thaksin back into the fold. Ms Yingluck, whose Puea Thai party won a resounding election victory in July on the back of her brother's popularity, has so far not commented on the issue. But Chalerm Yubamrung, a deputy prime minister, insisted the pardon would benefit about 26,000 prisoners rather than any one individual, while refusing to discuss the criteria for who would be released.