Regulator smells plot to destabilise BD forex mkt

Bangladesh Bank smells a plot by vested groups to destabilise exchange rate through creating artificial crisis on Bangladesh's foreign-exchange market to cash in on the Mideast mayhem.
To deflate the plan of possible volatility, the central bank has already intensified its monitoring and vigilance on a vested quarter spreading rumours that the exchange rate may go up to Tk 130 per US dollar.
Such scaremongering has created tensions among bankers and business circles, according to the central bankers concerned.
The banking regulator skipped its dollar-purchase plan to bolster forex reserves from the market to avert any unusual fluctuation in the exchange rate since the United States and Israel jointly initiated war against Iran.
As a matter of fact, forex holdings by commercial banks continue to rise significantly riding on record inflows of remittance, particularly from the tension-hit Gulf countries, which account for more than 70 per cent of the entire remittance receipt by Bangladesh.
According to market players, the American greenback was traded on the interbank spot market at Tk 122.85 while the banks purchased remittance at as high as Tk 123.50 per dollar. The rate of US dollar on the kerb market was recorded at 125.50 a dollar on Tuesday.
The FE correspondent talked to more than a dozen central and commercial bankers over the heating up of forex-market situation and all of them agreed to share their views and thoughts on condition of anonymity.
A BB official involved with forex market says the central bank normally buys dollar from the market when the NOP (net open position) in banks stays over 400 million. After the war against Iran, the central bank has not purchased a single dollar from the market since last month.
As a matter of fact, the NOP now crosses $1.0-billion mark.
Because of the rising inflow, he says, "the commercial banks' forex holdings rose to $3.90 billion in March from February's count of $2.30 billion.
On the other hand, the country bagged remittance amounting to $3.77 billion in March 2026 -- the highest monthly inflow in the history of Bangladesh, he mentions.
"So, all indicators are positive. There is no reason of local currency depreciation right at the moment. Despite the fact, the exchange rate keeps rising. There is something fishy," he says.
Another central banker says they have primary information that the pressure of forward booking for dollars keeps mounting in the commercial banks, which creates artificial spikes in dollar pricing.
The central bank is closely monitoring activities of some banks. "We will do the same tomorrow (Wednesday). If we find any inconsistency, we'll send inspection team to the banks on Thursday," the central banker warns.
The treasury head of a state-owned commercial bank says they did not buy any dollar Tuesday because of the higher rate as there is no pressure for dollars. "I don't know why the rate is rising despite lower demand," he raises the question.
He says some of the commercial banks are quoting in-between Tk 123.50 and Tk 123.60 for BC (bills for collection) for importers.
The treasury head of a private commercial bank blames some six to eight private banks for their suspicious activities behind the artificial spikes in the dollar rate.
He says the central bank can easily identify them monitoring their forex-purchasing movements for the last couple of days.
Founding chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh Dr M Masrur Reaz says the financial market is badly impacted around the world due to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.
In terms of energy-supply disruption, he notes, Bangladesh stands at the forefront of the worst countries because of the war.
"And some of the policymakers intently or un-intently stated that the energy prices need to be adjusted in the coming days, which may trigger speculative behaviour in the market."

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