Relations with Myanmar

The just concluded three-day state visit by the prime minister and her 38-member entourage to Myanmar has given rise to much speculation about possible improved relations with that country and the benefits likely to follow in due course. More so because the country is opening up to the world and now looks well set to start its much awaited political reform. While the possible import of natural gas from Myanmar is seen as crucial for Bangladesh's gas-starved economy, other 'sensitive' issues, such as the repatriation of the few hundred thousand Rohingyas back to their motherland have been discussed. What is of import is that the two heads of State have in principle agreed to initiate dialogue on a wide variety of issues ranging from humanitarian intervention to business links. The prospect for Bangladesh to import gas from its neighbour is undoubtedly going to be a long-drawn process as the infrastructure required for such an arrangement will have to be developed. Again, Myanmar has already finalised an agreement with China for the export of natural gas from its operational gas fields. Hence, working out a gas import regime timetable from the country in the short term will in all probability not be feasible. The 'Agreement on the Establishment of Joint Commission' has however laid the foundations for cooperation between the two countries. With the signing of a MoU between Bangladesh's FBCCI and Myanmar's Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry, business leaders, especially industrialists are keen to see the facilitation of gas-import on a priority basis. With Bangladesh' own gas production failing to keep up with demand, industry as a whole has largely borne the brunt of energy deficiency resulting in loss of productivity and increased cost of production. The fact that a private sector-led consortium consisting of foreign business interests in Bangladesh has offered to come up with the required investment in a gas line between the two countries if and where such an agreement is signed, only goes to show the gravity of the situation. The energy quagmire in which Bangladesh finds itself today could have largely been avoided had the much talked about tri-national (Myanmar-Bangladesh-India) gas pipeline deal plodding along on paper for the last one and a half decades been finalised. With that opportunity now largely lost and despite overwhelming exuberance on our part, the Myanmar government has been more cautious in making any gas export commitments to Bangladesh. What has been promised is that such export depends on the discovery of new gas field discovery. The establishment of full-fledged business links with Myanmar would however open up a lot of prospects for commerce. Currently, trade between the two nations stands at less than $200 million annually, although there is potential for trade to bolster provided road and rail links, banking facilities and shipping links are established. The need for establishing direct trade links with Myanmar has long been overdue, and the fruition of Bangladesh's aspirations for energy solvency will depend largely on its ability to cut through the culture of red tape in making time bound policy decisions.