Reliable data for sound planning

What is the current size of the Bangladesh's population? There is no definitive answer to the question. It could be 146 million or 164 million or somewhere in between the two. One, however, might get a perfect (?) answer soon when the results of the recently concluded fifth national population and household census are published. But, in the meanwhile, an observation made by Finance Minister AMA Muhith late last week at a seminar organized by the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) on the size of the country's population is sure to surprise many. The observation in question has nullified his earlier stand on the population. Speaking at the BIDS seminar, the finance minister while putting special emphasis on population control programme in the next national budget said, "The official statistics put the country's population at 147 million. I think the population is not below 160 million". But when the UNFPA population report-2010 had shown the size of the Bangladesh population at 164 million, the finance minister in October last stuck to the official statistics and rejected the UNFPA report. He also accused the UNFPA of 'unwarranted interference' saying that the government would write to the UN organization seeking clarification. The gap between the two statistics is quite large. If the UNFPA estimate is true than the policies prepared taking the official population statistics into account are, obviously, flawed. For instance, the actual per capita income would be lower than what is shown in official documents. Then again, the per capita calorie consumption needs fresh assessment if the UNFPA estimate on population is right. While criticizing the UNFPA report the basic question that the government had raised was about the source of the Bangladesh-related statistics presented in the same. The finance minister had claimed that the UN body did not take into account the statistics available with the relevant government agencies, including the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Such consultation was very much apparent since the international agencies are neither capable of nor have the capacity to collect nationwide data on any particular issue. There were also anomalies in population data available with the website of the UNFPA Dhaka office when its report was published. Besides, there are differences in the population growth rate used by the UNFPA and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the official statistical organization, to estimate the country's population. The BBS data puts the annual population growth rate at 1.29 per cent but the UNFPA considers it to be 1.40 per cent. When the finance minister himself finds the official population data unreliable, there is every reason to be concerned about the soundness of many major policies and programmes of the government. In this context, it would not be out of place to cast doubt about the quality of the fifth population census. The authorities concerned prior to the census did not make the population adequately aware through mass campaign. The print and electronic media were not used properly to make the people understand the importance of the national census that takes place after every ten years. Besides, many people have complained that the enumerators engaged by the BBS did not visit their places. There is no denying that no census is 100 per cent error-free. The enumerators cannot reach all the people during the census programme implemented over a period of five to six days. That is why there is a provision to make a few changes in the population figures received from the enumerators to make the estimates near to the actual. But what if the original census figures are largely flawed? In such cases, the usual practice of making minor adjustments does not bear any fruit and the policies prepared on the basis of the flawed estimates are also bound to be flawed. The BBS would make a few small and area-specific surveys to ascertain the quality of the latest population and household census prior to finalise the census report. It would be proper on the BBS to attach due importance to the follow-up surveys to make the census report error-free as far as practicable. Authenticity of the official statistics, particularly those gathered from the field level, is very often doubted, even by the policymakers and development partners. There were talks about strengthening the data collection system and their compilation under the auspices of the BBS, nothing tangible has done yet. Be it census or collection of any data of national importance, it is imperative to strengthen the BBS through its capacity building. The government should take up a special project to recruit competent manpower, improve logistics and strengthen the field level offices of the BBS without further delay.