Review finds investment targets under 6th 5-yr plan uncertain

The average GDP growth rate above 7 per cent over the remaining two years of the Sixth Five-Year Plan (2011-15) is unlikely to be achieved because of lower investments than the targets, reports UNB.
"Though political stability has returned and there's likely to be a recovery in private investment, on the whole it is clear that the investment targets for the Sixth Plan may not be achieved. The public investment rate is significantly lower than planned," said the mid-term implementation review of the Sixth Five-Year Plan (2011-15) of Bangladesh.
The General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission conducted the recent review.
On the whole, the review said, the slowdown in investments might lead to failure to achieve the average GDP growth rate above 7 per cent over the remaining two years of the Plan.
Although the total investment in percentage of GDP reached 25.1 per cent in the FY 11 exceeding the target of 24.7 per cent, in the successive years the total investment touched 26.6 per cent against the target of 26.8 per cent in the FY 12 and 26.8 per cent against the target of 29.6 per cent in the FY 13.
The review said Bangladesh had been among the fastest growing countries in the world during 2011-13 along with China, India and Indonesia.
"On the whole, average GDP growth performance in the first three years is a solid 6.4pc, but lower than the Sixth Plan target (7.3pc)," the review said.
Talking to the news agency, GED member Prof Dr Shamsul Alam said the overall implementation of the Plan was about 86 per cent till the FY 13, the highest ever compared to implementation of the other five-year plans.
"So it's a significant achievement, but I'm not happy as I wanted the GDP growth to reach more than 7.3 per cent on an average," he added.
He said they would try their best to accelerate the growth rate in the Seventh Five-Year Plan and attain the growth rate of more than 8 per cent in the first two years of the upcoming five-year period. "We'll emphasise more human resource development, particularly in creating skilled manpower in every sector of the economy, and we'll try to send more people abroad for boosting the remittance flow," he said.

On completion of the SFYP period in the FY 15, the review also said the success rate would be higher than any other plan period of the past.
When it comes to progress in poverty reduction in line with the Plan target of reducing head-count poverty to 22.5 per cent by 2015, the incidence of poverty had been declining at the rate of 1.74 percentage points on an average in Bangladesh during 2000 to 2010 as per the HIES data.
"In view of the trend, the estimated figure of poverty head count in 2013 was 26.2 per cent, which is a significant achievement," said the review.
The review suggested steps that include improving the investment climate by removing constraints identified by investors, addressing the shortfall in public investment speedily with a range of measures, including more focused and steady implementation of the tax modernisation plan, proper pricing of electricity and energy and rationalisation of subsidies.