Rise in exports offers Germany hope of avoiding Q4 slump

BERLIN, Nov 09 (Reuters): German exports rose by more than expected in September, and foreign trade gave Europe's largest economy a boost going into the fourth quarter as it struggles to avoid slipping into a double dip contraction.
Seasonally adjusted exports rose 2.3 per cent on the month after an upwardly revised 2.9 per cent rise in August, the Federal Statistics Office said. Imports fell by 0.1 per cent after a rise of 5.8 per cent the previous month. The trade surplus expanded to 17.8 billion euros, the Office said.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected exports to rise by 2.0 per cent and imports to increase by 2.1 per cent. The trade surplus was predicted to come in at 15.8 billion euros.
"Looking ahead, exports (and industrial production) could still prevent the economy from falling into a second lockdown depression in the final quarter of the year," ING economist Carsten Brzeski said.
"With US President-elect Biden, the threat of US tariffs on European (read German) automotives should disappear," he added.
The economy grew by a record 8.2 per cent in the third quarter on higher consumer spending and exports, but an aggressive second wave of infections and a new partial lockdown are now clouding the outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond.
Annual figures showed exports to China rose 10.6 per cent from the previous September. Exports to the United States, which the Office said were particularly affected by the coronavirus pandemic, fell 5.8 per cent on the year and those to the UK fell 12.4 per cent.
A picture is emerging of German industry growing despite the pandemic, while services struggle. Industrial output rose in September, data showed on Friday.
A survey released last Wednesday showed that German services activity shrank for the first time in four months in October.