River of blood in Libya

Muhammar Gaddafi put an end to the conventional state and reinstates it with an organic system that empowered the masses. Now, those masses are rising up against him, in the process demonstrating how destructive his rule has been in Libya. Far from creating new institutions, he swept away what little the country possessed in the way of civil society and political tradition. In Libya, it is not clear who can provide the necessary core for a transition. The army's consistency is in uncertainty, the old tribal structures are both disruptive and weakened, and Libyan Islamists have not gone through the same learning experiences which have made their counterparts elsewhere more sophisticated and flexible. The Egyptians, who might under different circumstances have exerted influence, are distracted. The Arab League lacks both mandate and means. In the beginning, Gaddafi's revolution had certain logic and achieved some useful things. His opposition to foreign intervention was well founded and absolutely in line with Libyan feelings. In particular, his mistrust of the conventional state reflected that of most Libyans, who had lost any sense of ownership in whatever political arrangements prevailed from time to time and whose loyalties were more local and narrow-minded. But his dropsically face, looming from the billboards in Libyan cities, has grown more despondent and disturbed as the political structures he conjured up have degenerated. As fighting reached the capital and mainstays of the regime were torched in Tripoli, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi warned Libyans to "be prepared for civil war" as his 68-year-old father fought to avoid the fate of Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak and Tunisian president Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali. Using the same argument that Mr Mubarak had used in neighbouring Egypt before he fell, Saif Gaddafi said chaos would result if the regime fell. "Libya is not Egypt, it is not Tunisia," he said. Protesters the other day took control of the eastern cities of Benghazi and Baida, while in Tripoli the interior ministry and police stations were set on fire and hundreds of protesters were reported to be near the Bab al-Aziziya military camp where Colonel Gaddafi lives. Finally, the government shut down phone lines and the internet to prevent communication and coverage of the uprising, but Human Rights Watch said at least 233 people had been killed in the five days of protest against the 42-year rule of Colonel Gaddafi. Police and the army appeared to have abandoned Benghazi and retreated to their compounds. This followed reports of sections of the security forces defecting to back the protesters and other army and police officers refusing to engage in confrontations with the public. Libyan warplanes have reportedly fired at protesters as citizens marched on Muammar Gaddafi's Tripoli compound in a major escalation of violence in the country. Libyan protesters sacked the headquarters of the nation's state broadcasters and torched government offices as the whereabouts of Libyan strongman Gaddafi, whose four decades of autocratic rule triggered the protests, were unknown. Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's son warned again that "rivers of blood" would run through Libya if protests continued and the regime would fight to "the last man standing." Earlier, the voice of the voiceless in Egypt forced Hosni Mubarak to step down after his military power evaporated as his long stay made him to believe that he had totally intimidated the people into submission but what he failed to realise was that he was invoking the power of the voiceless and whetting their appetite for a non-violent protest that was going to cause his removal from the presidency! Now, what is next in Libya? The writer can be reached at e-mail: shafiq@iidfc.com