Rubber prices likely to rise by 30pc
Wednesday, 9 December 2009
BANGKOK, Dec 8 (Commodity Online): Thailand Rubber Association said rubber prices are set to increase by as much as 30 per cent next year as global demand rises on economic recovery and supply tightens amid climate change and the El Nino weather phenomenon.
In a statement, it said, "Climate change is becoming a key factor and rubber supply could be cut further next year by unfavorable weather, meaning it would fail to meet rising demand as the global economy recovers".
Thai rubber smoked sheet is up by 40 per cent year-on-year to 98 baht per kg.
"This year's flooding is the worst scenario and now we are concerned about next year's El Nino that could bring dry weather which could cut supply again," it said.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned El Nino weather, warming the Pacific Ocean and linked to drought in South Asia, is likely to continue into the first quarter of 2010.
Global rubber demand is forecast at 9.3 million tones next year, up from 8.69 million this year, with supply at 9.4 million tones.
Output in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, which provide about 70 per cent of natural rubber, is expected to drop more than 6 per cent this year after flooding.
Thai rubber output is expected to be 2.9 million tones in 2009, down from 3.09 million in 2008. Indonesian output is forecast at 2.59 million tones this year, down from 2.75 million last year.
Malaysia's output is expected to be 951,000 tones this year, down from 1.07 million in 2008, said the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
Thailand is expected to export about 2.6 million tones of rubber products this year, for between 170 billion and 180 billion baht, down from 2.7 million tones worth 220 billion baht last year.
In a statement, it said, "Climate change is becoming a key factor and rubber supply could be cut further next year by unfavorable weather, meaning it would fail to meet rising demand as the global economy recovers".
Thai rubber smoked sheet is up by 40 per cent year-on-year to 98 baht per kg.
"This year's flooding is the worst scenario and now we are concerned about next year's El Nino that could bring dry weather which could cut supply again," it said.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned El Nino weather, warming the Pacific Ocean and linked to drought in South Asia, is likely to continue into the first quarter of 2010.
Global rubber demand is forecast at 9.3 million tones next year, up from 8.69 million this year, with supply at 9.4 million tones.
Output in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, which provide about 70 per cent of natural rubber, is expected to drop more than 6 per cent this year after flooding.
Thai rubber output is expected to be 2.9 million tones in 2009, down from 3.09 million in 2008. Indonesian output is forecast at 2.59 million tones this year, down from 2.75 million last year.
Malaysia's output is expected to be 951,000 tones this year, down from 1.07 million in 2008, said the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
Thailand is expected to export about 2.6 million tones of rubber products this year, for between 170 billion and 180 billion baht, down from 2.7 million tones worth 220 billion baht last year.