Russia will accept South Ossetia - but quietly
Saturday, 13 September 2008
Tony Halpin
South Ossetia has never made any secret of the fact that it wishes to reunite with its ethnic brethren in North Ossetia. It has said this consistently since breaking away from Georgia in the early 1990s - and, given Russia's aversion to breakaway movements inside its own border, such as that in Chechnya, this has also been comfortable for Moscow. The alternative would be an independent South Ossetia and the risk of agitation in North Ossetia to join their brethren in this newly independent state - something Russia would find intolerable.
However, Russia has become very sensitive to the accusation that it waged war in Georgia in order to annex Georgian territory. This is particularly true with regard to Abkhazia, the second breakaway province, which is just 30 minutes drive from Sochi, the Russian city that will host the 2014 Winter Olympics. It is hard to overestimate the symbolic importance for Russia of being chosen to host these Olympics and Sochi 2014 is Vladimir Putin's personal project. If the allegation from Georgia of Russian annexation gains traction, then the obvious target for imposing sanctions or raising protest is the Sochi Games.
So Eduard Kokoity was saying exactly what Ossetians want - and which he said with equal force two weeks ago - but Russia now finds it unwelcome to highlight the fact. President Medvedev agreed on Monday in talks with President Sarkozy of France and the EU that there would be an international conference on the future of South Ossetia and Abkhazia on October 15 - despite having also said that Russia's recognition of their independence is final. Again, Russia doesn't want now to be seen to be prejudging the outcome, even if only for appearances' sake.
President Medvedev said immediately after the war that he was ready to "make the decision which unambiguously supports the will of these two Caucasus peoples". This was in relation to recognition of their independence - but carries equal force if the "will" of South Ossetia is to join Russia, which it plainly now is.
—Times Online
South Ossetia has never made any secret of the fact that it wishes to reunite with its ethnic brethren in North Ossetia. It has said this consistently since breaking away from Georgia in the early 1990s - and, given Russia's aversion to breakaway movements inside its own border, such as that in Chechnya, this has also been comfortable for Moscow. The alternative would be an independent South Ossetia and the risk of agitation in North Ossetia to join their brethren in this newly independent state - something Russia would find intolerable.
However, Russia has become very sensitive to the accusation that it waged war in Georgia in order to annex Georgian territory. This is particularly true with regard to Abkhazia, the second breakaway province, which is just 30 minutes drive from Sochi, the Russian city that will host the 2014 Winter Olympics. It is hard to overestimate the symbolic importance for Russia of being chosen to host these Olympics and Sochi 2014 is Vladimir Putin's personal project. If the allegation from Georgia of Russian annexation gains traction, then the obvious target for imposing sanctions or raising protest is the Sochi Games.
So Eduard Kokoity was saying exactly what Ossetians want - and which he said with equal force two weeks ago - but Russia now finds it unwelcome to highlight the fact. President Medvedev agreed on Monday in talks with President Sarkozy of France and the EU that there would be an international conference on the future of South Ossetia and Abkhazia on October 15 - despite having also said that Russia's recognition of their independence is final. Again, Russia doesn't want now to be seen to be prejudging the outcome, even if only for appearances' sake.
President Medvedev said immediately after the war that he was ready to "make the decision which unambiguously supports the will of these two Caucasus peoples". This was in relation to recognition of their independence - but carries equal force if the "will" of South Ossetia is to join Russia, which it plainly now is.
—Times Online