SAARC: Getting rid of mistrust and hostility
Thursday, 6 May 2010
Shahiduzzaman Khan
The leaders attending the 16th summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in Thimphu aired renewed optimism last week that this regional forum would, at long last, set out on a new journey of working together, overcoming the factors that in the past sought to limit the pursuit of common good. It was on that note that the curtains were drawn on the 16th summit in Bhutan.
A deficit in mutual trust, together with rigid bilateralism, pursued by some countries, indeed, slowed down regional cooperation among the member states under the SAARC umbrella. Yet Bhutanese Prime Minister believes the Thimphu summit will be a turning point for the SAARC. The summit adopted a 37-point 'Thimphu Silver Jubilee Declaration' and the 'Thimphu Statement on Climate Change' after hard bargaining among the member countries. Bangladesh, from where the idea of SAARC came, tried its best to push the regional cooperative efforts ahead, taking all the member states on board. At least eight proposals mooted by Bangladesh found place in the declaration. The Bangladesh proposals include, among others, forging regional cooperation for the pursuance of multi-party democracy and strengthening democratic institutions for ensuring effective, transparent and accountable governments.
In fact, SAARC had generated high hopes among millions that the proposed cooperation would help bring betterment for the people of the poverty-battered region. But, in reality, after two decades of 'cooperation,' SAARC's achievements are yet unimpressive and on a low scale and the process for starting any long-term regional projects still remain on the drawing board alone.
The forum was established with ambitious goal to 'promote the welfare of the people of South Asia and to improve their quality of life'. But in the past decades, it has failed to accelerate economic growth and social progress to 'provide all individuals the opportunity to live in dignity and realise their full potential' due to lack of political will of South Asian politicians who represent more or less 1.5 billion people living in extreme or moderate poverty.
The leaders always spoke of great things, but it has always been observed that mistrust among them, hostility over the notion of state security, an arms race among two nuclear-powers and protectionist approaches over trade and economic liberalisation, have impeded cooperation among the eight neighbours. The teaming of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka under the charter of regional cooperation has been identified as a way to solve the problems that the region encounters frequently.
The SAARC countries are home to some 23 per cent of the entire global population. Thus, numerically it has the prospect of becoming the biggest common market in the world as the combined growth rate of the populations of SAARC countries is the highest in the world. One may contend that the modest purchasing power of the poor among the SAARC population restricts its real market size. But in all SAARC countries the sections of the rich, upper middle classes and the lower middle classes are fast rising. They already form a vast market for all kinds of goods and services and their numbers are almost certain to only go on increasing even in the near future, despite the hurdles.
But the hard reality is that SAARC countries are only tinkering at the edges of exploiting this present and potential markets. Although SAARC was established a quarter of a century ago, intra-regional trade or SAARC trade between the member countries themselves, constitutes a small fraction of their total trade. However, this trade, even at the present level of various capacities within SAARC, could be several fold larger than what is today. Of course, that requires the SAARC countries to meet the goals of the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) which they formed in 2006. But SAFTA has hardly made any substantive progress since its founding. It remains practically stagnant as SAARC countries are yet to take the necessary initiatives to give a spur to it.
As a regional trading bloc, it lags far behind others in terms of trade among member states. Member states trade with the rest of the world more readily than with each other. Trade between India and China has jumped seven-fold in recent years. Moreover, with almost an identical export basket, they elbow each other out of the way to grab American and European markets for textiles, garments, tea and jute.
Intra-SAARC trade constitutes a paltry 5.0 per cent or around $3.0 billion a year of the total trade by the member states, against 37 per cent for North Atlantic Free Trade Area (NAFTA), 38 per cent for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and 63 per cent for European Union (EU). The slow progress of regional mechanisms encouraged the members to negotiate for bilateral arrangements within the region and outside. As the member-countries are pursuing bilateral trade relations in the region as well as in other regions, the trend has already undermined SAFTA as an agreement that might prepare the ground for an eventual South Asian Economic Union.
While SAARC survived as a regional grouping for over two decades, its progress in all areas of cooperation amongst the member countries has been blunted because of numerous bilateral disputes that defied solutions for generations. Frustrations crept in amongst the member states as they silently watched how other regional groupings managed not only to survive but also progressed by leaps and bound both bilaterally as well as multilaterally. It is to be seen how SAARC can defy odds and move further in order to bring prosperity to the region. szkhan@dhaka.net
The leaders attending the 16th summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in Thimphu aired renewed optimism last week that this regional forum would, at long last, set out on a new journey of working together, overcoming the factors that in the past sought to limit the pursuit of common good. It was on that note that the curtains were drawn on the 16th summit in Bhutan.
A deficit in mutual trust, together with rigid bilateralism, pursued by some countries, indeed, slowed down regional cooperation among the member states under the SAARC umbrella. Yet Bhutanese Prime Minister believes the Thimphu summit will be a turning point for the SAARC. The summit adopted a 37-point 'Thimphu Silver Jubilee Declaration' and the 'Thimphu Statement on Climate Change' after hard bargaining among the member countries. Bangladesh, from where the idea of SAARC came, tried its best to push the regional cooperative efforts ahead, taking all the member states on board. At least eight proposals mooted by Bangladesh found place in the declaration. The Bangladesh proposals include, among others, forging regional cooperation for the pursuance of multi-party democracy and strengthening democratic institutions for ensuring effective, transparent and accountable governments.
In fact, SAARC had generated high hopes among millions that the proposed cooperation would help bring betterment for the people of the poverty-battered region. But, in reality, after two decades of 'cooperation,' SAARC's achievements are yet unimpressive and on a low scale and the process for starting any long-term regional projects still remain on the drawing board alone.
The forum was established with ambitious goal to 'promote the welfare of the people of South Asia and to improve their quality of life'. But in the past decades, it has failed to accelerate economic growth and social progress to 'provide all individuals the opportunity to live in dignity and realise their full potential' due to lack of political will of South Asian politicians who represent more or less 1.5 billion people living in extreme or moderate poverty.
The leaders always spoke of great things, but it has always been observed that mistrust among them, hostility over the notion of state security, an arms race among two nuclear-powers and protectionist approaches over trade and economic liberalisation, have impeded cooperation among the eight neighbours. The teaming of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka under the charter of regional cooperation has been identified as a way to solve the problems that the region encounters frequently.
The SAARC countries are home to some 23 per cent of the entire global population. Thus, numerically it has the prospect of becoming the biggest common market in the world as the combined growth rate of the populations of SAARC countries is the highest in the world. One may contend that the modest purchasing power of the poor among the SAARC population restricts its real market size. But in all SAARC countries the sections of the rich, upper middle classes and the lower middle classes are fast rising. They already form a vast market for all kinds of goods and services and their numbers are almost certain to only go on increasing even in the near future, despite the hurdles.
But the hard reality is that SAARC countries are only tinkering at the edges of exploiting this present and potential markets. Although SAARC was established a quarter of a century ago, intra-regional trade or SAARC trade between the member countries themselves, constitutes a small fraction of their total trade. However, this trade, even at the present level of various capacities within SAARC, could be several fold larger than what is today. Of course, that requires the SAARC countries to meet the goals of the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) which they formed in 2006. But SAFTA has hardly made any substantive progress since its founding. It remains practically stagnant as SAARC countries are yet to take the necessary initiatives to give a spur to it.
As a regional trading bloc, it lags far behind others in terms of trade among member states. Member states trade with the rest of the world more readily than with each other. Trade between India and China has jumped seven-fold in recent years. Moreover, with almost an identical export basket, they elbow each other out of the way to grab American and European markets for textiles, garments, tea and jute.
Intra-SAARC trade constitutes a paltry 5.0 per cent or around $3.0 billion a year of the total trade by the member states, against 37 per cent for North Atlantic Free Trade Area (NAFTA), 38 per cent for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and 63 per cent for European Union (EU). The slow progress of regional mechanisms encouraged the members to negotiate for bilateral arrangements within the region and outside. As the member-countries are pursuing bilateral trade relations in the region as well as in other regions, the trend has already undermined SAFTA as an agreement that might prepare the ground for an eventual South Asian Economic Union.
While SAARC survived as a regional grouping for over two decades, its progress in all areas of cooperation amongst the member countries has been blunted because of numerous bilateral disputes that defied solutions for generations. Frustrations crept in amongst the member states as they silently watched how other regional groupings managed not only to survive but also progressed by leaps and bound both bilaterally as well as multilaterally. It is to be seen how SAARC can defy odds and move further in order to bring prosperity to the region. szkhan@dhaka.net