Sarkozy's uneven first 100 days
Saturday, 25 August 2007
Peggy Hollinger in Paris
Nicolas Sarkozy marks the end of his first 100 days last Thursday as storm clouds gather over his promised reform programme: a global financial crisis threatens already disappointing economic growth at home; job creation has stalled and the country's constitutional court has curtailed his election winning promise to give tax breaks to homeowners.
Yet opinion polls show the energetic French president is more popular than ever - not just in his own centre-right UMP party but even among supporters of the opposition. According to Pierre Giacometti, head of the polling group Ipsos France, more than a third of leftwing voters consistently support Mr Sarkozy, no matter what the issue.
The key to his popularity has been his openness to the opposition - having co-opted stars of the left and centre into his government - and his very public determination to implement the promises made during his presidential campaign, says Mr Giacometti. "As far as the French are concerned, he is respecting his word."
Since being elected in May, Mr Sarkozy appears to have been everywhere. He went to Brussels to restore momentum to the European project; to Libya to cement bilateral accords after the freeing of Bulgarian hostages; and finally at home he launched his promised reform programme with legislation on tax, labour, higher education and justice.
But for France's long-starved reformers, who saw Mr Sarkozy as the cou try's best hope for a redynamised economy, the first three months have been something of a disappointment. He may have tried to free the labour market by abolishing tax on overtime, but he has bought peace with unions by compromising on a pledge for minimum service in public transport during strikes. He has given France's flagging university system much-needed autonomy, but has surrendered to union resistance on student selection and fees.
For the critics, such compromises bode ill for the dramatic rupture Mr Sarkozy himself said was needed to put France's over-regulated economy back on the path of strong growth.
To make matters worse, far from helping to rein in the country's bloated budget deficit, the early measures will in fact stretch it further - by as much as 0.6 per cent of gross domestic product, according to Barclays Capital - while only marginally boosting consumer spending.
"There are a series of structural changes needed to kick-start growth but the reforms he has announced do not respond at all to that need," says Elie Cohen, of the government's independent think-tank the Economic Analysis Council. "If I was his professor I'd have to say he could have done better." Yet even Mr Cohen acknowledges that three months is not long enough to change the rigid structures that have restrained economic growth for so long.
And some believe Mr Sarkozy had to take a gentle approach to his first reforms, to reassure a skittish nation ahead of more significant initiatives in the autumn.
Max Gallo, a historian and Socialist convert to the Sarkozy cause, sits in this camp. "People said Nicolas Sarkozy was a fascist, that his presidency would unleash violence in the suburbs," he says. "But by negotiation he is trying not to renounce what he wants and get it accepted without brutal confrontation."
The 75-year-old historian, who recently joined the ranks of France's Immortals - the guardians of French culture and language at the Académie Française - believes Mr Sarkozy's most important achievement so far is to have begun transforming the very nature of what it means to be French:
"There is a real rupture in the way he speaks of France, his view on history, the importance of nation and the question of repentance."
Mr Sarkozy is also a first-generation immigrant who has brought other immigrants into government, and an outsider not formed by the elite education system that has ruled France for so long. "He is a recent Frenchman, so his rapport with France is intellectual. He is rooted in the history of France but not the 'terre'."
Yet this achievement, too, will be difficult to judge in months, if not in years.
The most obvious success has been scored on the domestic political front, where Mr Sarkozy appears to be a brilliant tactician. His Socialist opposition has been divided and denuded by the appointment to senior positions of some of its leading figures. The party seems unable to build a coherent line of attack against France's most popular president in decades.
"For Sarkozy this is a definitive moment, as 1958 was for de Gaulle when he was recalled to power," says Mr Cohen. The general's own policy of openness - abducting the brightest and best of the left to become pillars of Gaullist reform - led to the right's 23-year hold on power. "Sarkozy really wants to change the political landscape in a lasting way," says Mr Cohen. "The surprise is that he has succeeded so well in this, yet his economic track record is only average."
Nicolas Sarkozy marks the end of his first 100 days last Thursday as storm clouds gather over his promised reform programme: a global financial crisis threatens already disappointing economic growth at home; job creation has stalled and the country's constitutional court has curtailed his election winning promise to give tax breaks to homeowners.
Yet opinion polls show the energetic French president is more popular than ever - not just in his own centre-right UMP party but even among supporters of the opposition. According to Pierre Giacometti, head of the polling group Ipsos France, more than a third of leftwing voters consistently support Mr Sarkozy, no matter what the issue.
The key to his popularity has been his openness to the opposition - having co-opted stars of the left and centre into his government - and his very public determination to implement the promises made during his presidential campaign, says Mr Giacometti. "As far as the French are concerned, he is respecting his word."
Since being elected in May, Mr Sarkozy appears to have been everywhere. He went to Brussels to restore momentum to the European project; to Libya to cement bilateral accords after the freeing of Bulgarian hostages; and finally at home he launched his promised reform programme with legislation on tax, labour, higher education and justice.
But for France's long-starved reformers, who saw Mr Sarkozy as the cou try's best hope for a redynamised economy, the first three months have been something of a disappointment. He may have tried to free the labour market by abolishing tax on overtime, but he has bought peace with unions by compromising on a pledge for minimum service in public transport during strikes. He has given France's flagging university system much-needed autonomy, but has surrendered to union resistance on student selection and fees.
For the critics, such compromises bode ill for the dramatic rupture Mr Sarkozy himself said was needed to put France's over-regulated economy back on the path of strong growth.
To make matters worse, far from helping to rein in the country's bloated budget deficit, the early measures will in fact stretch it further - by as much as 0.6 per cent of gross domestic product, according to Barclays Capital - while only marginally boosting consumer spending.
"There are a series of structural changes needed to kick-start growth but the reforms he has announced do not respond at all to that need," says Elie Cohen, of the government's independent think-tank the Economic Analysis Council. "If I was his professor I'd have to say he could have done better." Yet even Mr Cohen acknowledges that three months is not long enough to change the rigid structures that have restrained economic growth for so long.
And some believe Mr Sarkozy had to take a gentle approach to his first reforms, to reassure a skittish nation ahead of more significant initiatives in the autumn.
Max Gallo, a historian and Socialist convert to the Sarkozy cause, sits in this camp. "People said Nicolas Sarkozy was a fascist, that his presidency would unleash violence in the suburbs," he says. "But by negotiation he is trying not to renounce what he wants and get it accepted without brutal confrontation."
The 75-year-old historian, who recently joined the ranks of France's Immortals - the guardians of French culture and language at the Académie Française - believes Mr Sarkozy's most important achievement so far is to have begun transforming the very nature of what it means to be French:
"There is a real rupture in the way he speaks of France, his view on history, the importance of nation and the question of repentance."
Mr Sarkozy is also a first-generation immigrant who has brought other immigrants into government, and an outsider not formed by the elite education system that has ruled France for so long. "He is a recent Frenchman, so his rapport with France is intellectual. He is rooted in the history of France but not the 'terre'."
Yet this achievement, too, will be difficult to judge in months, if not in years.
The most obvious success has been scored on the domestic political front, where Mr Sarkozy appears to be a brilliant tactician. His Socialist opposition has been divided and denuded by the appointment to senior positions of some of its leading figures. The party seems unable to build a coherent line of attack against France's most popular president in decades.
"For Sarkozy this is a definitive moment, as 1958 was for de Gaulle when he was recalled to power," says Mr Cohen. The general's own policy of openness - abducting the brightest and best of the left to become pillars of Gaullist reform - led to the right's 23-year hold on power. "Sarkozy really wants to change the political landscape in a lasting way," says Mr Cohen. "The surprise is that he has succeeded so well in this, yet his economic track record is only average."