Shrinking youth workforce facing higher unemployment

That the country's youth workforce has consistently shrunk over the past two years is a completely new dimension to the country's demography. If it is a sure indication of aging of the population, it presents an unmistakable proof that the process of aging has set in before the country could reap even a fraction of the population dividend. Bangladesh has reasons to rue over the missed opportunity. Planning with the population has evidently fallen foul on many scores. Of course, the most notable one is education. Not only has standard and useful education remained elusive to the majority of young learners but also the existence of different streams and the correlation between higher expenditure and quality education created social disparities. Even more galling is the fact that the best talents opt for higher studies and life abroad because of either a lack of opportunities or evaluation of their merit.
Across the lowly social spectrum, the reality is harsh and cruel. Wealth accumulation at the top level has whetted the hunger of consumerism down the ranks but their earning capacity is not matching. This has compelled little educated and even unskilled youths either to seek manual employment abroad or embark on illegal and perilous journeys to Europe or a few countries in South East Asia via the Mediterranean and the Bay of Bengal respectively. Amy Pope, Director General of the International Organisation for Migration, now on a visit to Bangladesh is on record saying that 21 per cent of all migrants to Europe via the Mediterranean in the past four months were Bangladeshis. Then the majority of labourers who migrate legally to the Middle East and South East Asian countries earn low wages and this explains why remittance is falling despite a greater number of workers' employment abroad over the past couple of years.
At home the employment situation is so dismal that the workers desperately look forward to any kind of employment abroad. Shrinking youth work force in the age bracket of 15-29 from 26.82 million to 26.74 million in 2023 and to 25.92 in the first four months of the current year is a clear indication that potentially the most productive segment of population is on the decline. Intriguingly, the rate of unemployment has also gone up from 2.35 per cent in the last quarter of 2023 to 3.51 in the first quarter of 2024. This shows that a reduced demand for employment remains unmet. It means the manufacturing and other sectors are not doing particularly well. It gives, by extension, the impression that an economic stagflation has set in.
If the economy has failed to generate employment, it is not because the country has suddenly gone for extensive automation. No, the country has a long way to go before it can make good use of artificial intelligence in its industries, factories and offices. One of the reasons might be the hostile environment of investment facing the cottage, small and medium enterprises based mostly in rural settings. If those fail to import raw materials because of dollar crunch and also face problems in marketing their products, they cannot operate. It is not known if the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) that carried out the survey has specified the unemployment rates across the rural-urban divide. Most likely, unemployment in rural enterprises is higher. Location and category-specific unemployment could shed light on how to address the problem better.