Significance of the Indo-Afghan accord

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury The recently concluded security-related agreement between war-torn Afghanistan and its big neighbour India has raised eyebrows in different quarters while both countries have asserted that the understanding is not against any third country and is strictly for mutual benefits. Afghan President Hamid Karzai paid a brief visit to New Delhi the other day and signed the agreement that provides that India would train the Afghan security personnel and take over some of the duties of the NATO forces after they leave the country in 2014. Not surprisingly, India's rival neighbour has not taken it kindly for obvious reasons and some other quarters too have looked askance at the development. But several other countries have considered it a positive development that would help stabilise the volatile Afghan scenario. More importantly, Karzai himself appears neither upbeat nor disappointed as he looks more cautious about the agreement with India. He sought to scotch any impression that the understanding with New Delhi stems from Kabul's increasing problems with Islamabad and said Pakistan is our "twin brother while India is a great friend" and added that there is no question that the accord would be used against the brother in any way. He defended the understanding with New Delhi, saying India as a large nation is helping Afghanistan in many ways and the new accord has only expanded the area of cooperation. But the fact remains that Pakistan has reasons to feel perturbed by the Indo-Afghan development since it cannot relish a situation where Kabul is becoming closer to New Delhi, which is seen as Pakistan's number one enemy and vice versa whatever be the other explanations for this relationship. Needless to say, Afghanistan has emerged as a playground for the big powers and also its neighbours to some extent over the years. Although things have changed drastically, and at times quite divergently, as far as the overall Afgan scene is concerned. Remember the era not too long ago, when America and its Western allies pumped large sums of money and arms in the region in a bid to confront erstwhile Soviet communists who had dispatched their troops in support of the leftist government in Afghanistan. The radical Islamist forces grew in number and got emboldened at that time, and the Soviets had to abandon Afghanistan. And the governments headed by the communist leaders like Hafizullah Amin, Babrak Karmal and finally Najibullah were blown away by the Islamist militants aided by the West. Then the situation slowly took a diametrically opposite turn and now the Western powers are battling the radical Islamist forces which they helped in their fight against the leftists. Then once again, such turnarounds are not uncommon in politics-either at national or international levels-and that is what is being witnessed in Afghanistan. As far as Pakistan and India, two south Asian rival nations, are concerned, they have always a big stake in Afghanistan mainly for two reasons. How the developments there impact Islamabad and New Delhi, and more importantly, what could be the impact of the role of the powerful nations in the area. As such, both Pakistan and India have always been very cautious and alert about the Afghan developments and the matter is evidently more critically pertinent to Pakistan for a variety of reasons. But both sought to remain close to the Afghan authorities at different times and for India, ties with the regime in Kabul were somewhat difficult when the "Taliban" were at the helm. Pakistan's ties with the Kabul regimes at various phases have been influenced not only by its exigencies, but also by direct external interests where Islamabad has become an important part of the game. Now, Pakistan's ties with the Kabul government as well as its main backer United States are passing through a bad patch owing to a number of factors, like Washington's allegations that Islamabad maintains "tacit" relations with Afghan militant outfits like the "Haqqani group," which Pakistan denies. Also Kabul accuses Pakistan of involvement in the assassination of its former president Burhanuddin Rabbani recently. Pakistan denied this as well and urged Karzai government to refrain from making "baseless" allegations. Against the backdrop of deteriorating ties between Pakistan and US on the one hand and Kabul-Islamabad on the other, the Karzai government had turned to New Delhi for bigger help and assistance. India has already invested big amount of money in Afghanistan in various sectors since the ouster of the "Taliban" government in 2001 and happily accepted the Afghan overture for further closeness. Expectedly, it would ruffle many feathers in Pakistan, as this has introduced a new element that may vitiate the current political scene in the region. At the moment, this development would definitely isolate Pakistan from the Afghan tangle while how far this would help New Delhi in the long run also remains to be seen. An article in the British "Guardian" newspaper commented that whichever nation went into strategic security-related accord with the Afghan government would eventually regret it. Only time can tell if such a development would be beneficial for both the nations or it would be otherwise, someday. zaglulbss@yahoo.com