Singapore's economy shrinks in the fourth quarter
Wednesday, 4 January 2012
SINGAPORE, Jan 3 (AFP): Singapore's trade-driven economy shrank in the last quarter of 2011, government figures showed Tuesday, raising the prospect of a technical recession as Europe grapples with its debt crisis.
Advance estimates released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry showed gross domestic product (GDP) fell 4.9 per cent in the October-December quarter from the previous three months on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Compared to a year ago, Singapore's economy grew 3.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, down from the 5.9 per cent year-on-year growth in the third quarter.
"The moderation of growth in the fourth quarter was largely due to the slowdown in the manufacturing sector," the trade ministry said.
Singapore's economy is regarded as a bellwether for Asia's exporters, which depend heavily on electronics and other manufactured shipments to North America and Europe for growth.
The latest figures were released after Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced on Saturday that GDP grew 4.8 per cent in 2011, down from the freak 14.5 per cent spurt in 2010 when the city-state was bouncing off a recession.
The government estimates 2012 GDP growth would be 1.0-3.0 per cent.
The fourth-quarter figures revived fears of a technical recession in Singapore.
The city-state suffered a 5.9 per cent quarterly GDP contraction in the April-June quarter before posting 1.5 per cent growth in the third quarter.
Asked about the renewed possibility of a technical recession-defined as two successive quarters of decline-senior economist Alvin Liew of United Overseas Bank said much would depend on developments in Europe.
"Right now, the sentiment is largely driven by the European situation, and as they come back from the Christmas holidays to resolve the European debt situation, I think the markets will be pretty much focused on that," he said.
The trade ministry said the fourth-quarter numbers "largely reflected the continued decline in the electronics cluster, as well as a pull-back in growth in the biomedical manufacturing cluster."
Advance estimates released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry showed gross domestic product (GDP) fell 4.9 per cent in the October-December quarter from the previous three months on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Compared to a year ago, Singapore's economy grew 3.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, down from the 5.9 per cent year-on-year growth in the third quarter.
"The moderation of growth in the fourth quarter was largely due to the slowdown in the manufacturing sector," the trade ministry said.
Singapore's economy is regarded as a bellwether for Asia's exporters, which depend heavily on electronics and other manufactured shipments to North America and Europe for growth.
The latest figures were released after Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced on Saturday that GDP grew 4.8 per cent in 2011, down from the freak 14.5 per cent spurt in 2010 when the city-state was bouncing off a recession.
The government estimates 2012 GDP growth would be 1.0-3.0 per cent.
The fourth-quarter figures revived fears of a technical recession in Singapore.
The city-state suffered a 5.9 per cent quarterly GDP contraction in the April-June quarter before posting 1.5 per cent growth in the third quarter.
Asked about the renewed possibility of a technical recession-defined as two successive quarters of decline-senior economist Alvin Liew of United Overseas Bank said much would depend on developments in Europe.
"Right now, the sentiment is largely driven by the European situation, and as they come back from the Christmas holidays to resolve the European debt situation, I think the markets will be pretty much focused on that," he said.
The trade ministry said the fourth-quarter numbers "largely reflected the continued decline in the electronics cluster, as well as a pull-back in growth in the biomedical manufacturing cluster."