Specter of social unrest

Hasibul Hasan The specter of social unrest is haunting the high-growth economies of Asia. In one nation after another, rising expectations are being dashed as economic conditions deteriorate. In India recently an anti-corruption campaign led by Anna Hazare, a charismatic social activist, transformed into an intense protest movement. The protests started with a narrow focus and grew into nationwide demonstrations against income inequality and what was widely seen as an unfair sharing of both prosperity and (now) the burdens of slower growth and austerity. In South Korea, a recent referendum on free school lunches - the conservative government wanted to abolish them as "populist welfare"- turned into a national temperature taking on social-services policies. The opposition won the fight by boycotting the polls, thus depriving the government of the one-third proportion of the vote it required by law to pass the measure. Indonesia is another case where the unshared fruits of prosperity are roiling national politics. It has boasted one of the world's highest growth rates (6.1 per cent) last year, inflation-adjusted) under Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the once-promising president. But his failure to spread the wealth downward to the vast nation's poor and lower middle class has earned him the lowest approval ratings since he was re-elected by a wide margin in 2009. China, as usual, is playing a rougher game. With signs of a modest slowdown now evident, it is starting to discourage the rural migration that has been the lifeblood of the industrial cities for two decades. For the time being, at least, it wants them to stay home. Method: Tear down the informal schools migrants' children attend and bar them from official schools - which is prompting serious protests. In Indonesia, 35 per cent of what is considered the middle class earns $2.0 to $4.0 daily; in Thailand, the proportion is 33 per cent; in China, it is 34 per cent. These figures suggest a precarious social, political, and economic balance. One year to the next, it is entirely possible for a family in Jakarta or Kuala Lumpur or Shanghai to slip back down below the poverty line. Bangladesh as one of the most populous countries of Asia and the world is not immune from these trends. It is also suffering from gross income inequalities, high inflation that is pushing people back under the poverty line and worsening lack of economic opportunities. Under the circumstances, very disgruntled and dissatisfied people breaking out in protest is also a strong possibility in Bangladesh.