Strategies and theories will not yield growth
Saturday, 11 December 2010
First things are to be addressed first. Without addressing the most important factor that frustrates the attainment of an objective and going after secondary requirements, the same cannot be regarded as either pragmatism or realism. But that's what we see these days in Bangladesh. The capital city of the country is found often these days as the venue of lavish conferences devoted to extolling the miraculous potentialities that this country has in the economic fields. Assortment of strategies are stated or restated in these conferences, seminars, symposiums, dialogues, discussion meetings or what have you as these events are described.
But even a little educated person may tell you from common sense that most of these strategies for economic growth are highly irrelevant in the present day context of Bangladesh with the most basic precondition for growth which is ample and reliable supply of energy, the demand for such energy supply remains met. Thus, without this assured energy supply, even if all the other factors supportive of growth ranging from finances to infrastructures, all these are provided, the engine of growth, nonetheless, will remain motionless.
The situation can be likened to a cart which has the horse tied not in front of it but in the rear. No matter how hard you try or how good and sturdy the wheels are or how well oiled these may be, flogging that horse will only cause it to run dragging it in the opposite direction. The beast in this mode of its attachment will not succeed in pulling the cart in the frontal direction where you want it to go. The same kind of logic applies to the Bangladesh economy. It does not matter how many or how much of the other growth causing factors you have assembled. The growth engine will not move up and ahead till you have stoked it well with fuel to run continuously.
A conference under the auspices of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) on Tuesday deliberated on the strategies to be adopted to set Bangladesh on a higher growth path with the goal of attaining middle income country status for it by 2021 and to become a major economy in the world by 2030. But the conference in the main highlighted the great potentials that this country has in the economic fields.
The same have been well known for a long time such as its abundance of easily trainable workers who can be made to work devotedly at far lower wages by the world's standards, relatively strong and stable macro economic fundamentals, a favourable policy environment for investments, etc. From all these positives and more, a higher economic growth than the current nearly 6 per cent is prophesied for Bangladesh.
However as the Prime Minister (PM) of the country who addressed this conference said: the visions for the faster economic climbing up the ladder for Bangladesh depends on a much faster rate of industrialization and that in turn is too dependent on having the needed energy availability to drive such industrialization.
The PM has pointed to years of neglect before the taking over by her administration that has created the present energy crisis. No one will quite dispute this view as it is an objective one. But the failures in the past are no reasons for not becoming extremely serious in the present to make up for the past deficiencies and score successes in augmenting energy supplies with record speed.
The present government unfurled with much fanfare its road map for the power sector's development last year. It gave year by year scheduled targets of raising and sustaining power production. But in the over last 23 months, the main projections for achieving a sustainable improvement in power supply has been missed every time.
First, a notable increase in power supply to occur by the end of 2009 was indicated through official statements in line with the road map. But the same did not happen. Secondly, a similar assurance was given about greater and reliable supply of power during the summer of the current year. But this pledge, too, was not met. Usually a semblance of a balance between power's demand and supply is noted during the winter months and load shedding gets much reduced in this time of the year. But unprecedentedly during the on going winter season, load shedding has not diminished to the extent that could be expected signifying hardly any improvement in the power supply. And now the helmsmen of the energy sector are saying that even in the new year or 2011 power supply cannot be expected to show any significant improvement as government's plans to bring on stream a number of rented power plants by the end of this year for supplying power to the national grid on a fast track basis look like a goal to be not reached. Thus, for three years in succession the power supply situation would be seen as hardly progressing for the better.
The supply of gas is too important to boost power production. Gas is also directly used in a large number and types of industries. But gas supply like power supply has dwindled down to perilously low level. All kinds of suggestions were noted about improving gas supply. But hardly hands down rushed activities to that end were seen. No new gas reserve has been discovered and readied for production. Even the setting up of compressors on the gas supply lines to raise gas pressure to help increase its supply at the desired pressure, even these goals could not be reached.
Thus, all theorizing and smooth talks on the potentials of the economy should seem like irrelevant exercises in futility as long as the main prerequisite for harnessing these potentials -- greater and efficient energy supply -- is not fulfilled.
But even a little educated person may tell you from common sense that most of these strategies for economic growth are highly irrelevant in the present day context of Bangladesh with the most basic precondition for growth which is ample and reliable supply of energy, the demand for such energy supply remains met. Thus, without this assured energy supply, even if all the other factors supportive of growth ranging from finances to infrastructures, all these are provided, the engine of growth, nonetheless, will remain motionless.
The situation can be likened to a cart which has the horse tied not in front of it but in the rear. No matter how hard you try or how good and sturdy the wheels are or how well oiled these may be, flogging that horse will only cause it to run dragging it in the opposite direction. The beast in this mode of its attachment will not succeed in pulling the cart in the frontal direction where you want it to go. The same kind of logic applies to the Bangladesh economy. It does not matter how many or how much of the other growth causing factors you have assembled. The growth engine will not move up and ahead till you have stoked it well with fuel to run continuously.
A conference under the auspices of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) on Tuesday deliberated on the strategies to be adopted to set Bangladesh on a higher growth path with the goal of attaining middle income country status for it by 2021 and to become a major economy in the world by 2030. But the conference in the main highlighted the great potentials that this country has in the economic fields.
The same have been well known for a long time such as its abundance of easily trainable workers who can be made to work devotedly at far lower wages by the world's standards, relatively strong and stable macro economic fundamentals, a favourable policy environment for investments, etc. From all these positives and more, a higher economic growth than the current nearly 6 per cent is prophesied for Bangladesh.
However as the Prime Minister (PM) of the country who addressed this conference said: the visions for the faster economic climbing up the ladder for Bangladesh depends on a much faster rate of industrialization and that in turn is too dependent on having the needed energy availability to drive such industrialization.
The PM has pointed to years of neglect before the taking over by her administration that has created the present energy crisis. No one will quite dispute this view as it is an objective one. But the failures in the past are no reasons for not becoming extremely serious in the present to make up for the past deficiencies and score successes in augmenting energy supplies with record speed.
The present government unfurled with much fanfare its road map for the power sector's development last year. It gave year by year scheduled targets of raising and sustaining power production. But in the over last 23 months, the main projections for achieving a sustainable improvement in power supply has been missed every time.
First, a notable increase in power supply to occur by the end of 2009 was indicated through official statements in line with the road map. But the same did not happen. Secondly, a similar assurance was given about greater and reliable supply of power during the summer of the current year. But this pledge, too, was not met. Usually a semblance of a balance between power's demand and supply is noted during the winter months and load shedding gets much reduced in this time of the year. But unprecedentedly during the on going winter season, load shedding has not diminished to the extent that could be expected signifying hardly any improvement in the power supply. And now the helmsmen of the energy sector are saying that even in the new year or 2011 power supply cannot be expected to show any significant improvement as government's plans to bring on stream a number of rented power plants by the end of this year for supplying power to the national grid on a fast track basis look like a goal to be not reached. Thus, for three years in succession the power supply situation would be seen as hardly progressing for the better.
The supply of gas is too important to boost power production. Gas is also directly used in a large number and types of industries. But gas supply like power supply has dwindled down to perilously low level. All kinds of suggestions were noted about improving gas supply. But hardly hands down rushed activities to that end were seen. No new gas reserve has been discovered and readied for production. Even the setting up of compressors on the gas supply lines to raise gas pressure to help increase its supply at the desired pressure, even these goals could not be reached.
Thus, all theorizing and smooth talks on the potentials of the economy should seem like irrelevant exercises in futility as long as the main prerequisite for harnessing these potentials -- greater and efficient energy supply -- is not fulfilled.