Strauss-Kahn backs dollar, says yuan 'undervalued'
Saturday, 18 April 2009
WASHINGTON, April 17 (AFP):- International Monetary Fund(IMF) chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn Thursday predicted the dollar would remain the world's reference currency, noting its resilience amid the global economic meltdown.
"I see no reason why the US dollar would not go on being the reference in the world," Strauss-Kahn said in response to a question on the international monetary system at a forum in Washington.
"There are many reasons to think that when the crisis is over we will still be in a system where the place of the US dollar will be almost the same," he said after giving a speech at the National Press Club.
"What is even surprising is that the dollar is doing well in this crisis," he added.
Strauss-Kahn said that if senior economists had been told two years ago that there would be such a crisis, "with such a big amount of toxic assets, such problems in the global economy originating from the United States, and if you had asked them what would be the consequences for the dollar, all of them would have said it would be a collapse of the dollar.
Another report adds, IMF Thursday forecast a prolonged, deep global recession, a "sluggish" recovery, and weak capital flows to emerging economies that would hammer Eastern Europe.
"The current recession is likely to be unusually long and severe and the recovery sluggish," the IMF said in releasing two chapters from its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook (WEO).
The multilateral institution offered no timeline for a recovery from the first global recession in six decades.
"There is some glimmer of hope that the stress is receding," said Stephan Danninger, an IMF economist, at a news conference.
But he said any improvement would merely reduce "extreme levels of stress" to still "very high levels" of economic stress.
The IMF said its researchers looked at patterns of business cycles in 21 advanced economies from 1960 to the present.
The study found that fiscal stimulus actions seemed "particularly effective" in helping ending recessions, while monetary policy, such as tax cuts, can help shorten their duration but is less effective.
In the United States, "there is evidence of negative feedback between asset prices, credit, and investment," it said.
In the rest of the world, "the current recessions are also highly synchronized, further dampening prospects for a normal recovery."
The financial firestorm that began in September after the collapse of Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers swept beyond advanced economies and is battering the rest of the world.
The IMF warned that "the decline in capital flows to emerging economies ... may be protracted, given the solvency problems facing advanced economy banks who provide significant financing to emerging economies."
Emerging economies in Eastern Europe were particularly vulnerable because of the heavy presence of Western European banks in their financial sectors and economies.
The IMF pointed out that past episodes of systemic banking stress in advanced economies, such as the Latin American debt crisis in the 1980s and the Japanese banking crisis of the 1990s, shows that the decline in capital flows tends to be "sizeable and drawn out."
"Given their large exposure, emerging European economies might be heavily affected," said the 185-nation institution, whose mission is to promote global stability.
The Washington-based IMF highlighted the need for global coordination to battle the downturn and contain the financial meltdown.
"A coordinated policy response by advanced and emerging economies is required to prevent further escalation and spreading of financial stress," it said.
"Reducing individual country vulnerabilities cannot insulate emerging economies from a major financial shock in advanced economies."
The publication of the first two WEO chapters, which focus on recovery from recession and the spreading of financial stress from the advanced to emerging economies, came as the IMF prepares for its spring meetings with the World Bank, to be held April 25-26 in Washington.
The grim tone of the chapters appeared to signal significant downward revisions for the forthcoming WEO forecasts, due to be published next Wednesday.
In an update last month, the IMF predicted the first global contraction in 60 years, of between an annual negative rate of 0.5 per cent and 1.0 per cent in 2009.
The world economy was expected to gradually stage a "modest recovery" in 2010, with growth between 1.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent, it said.
"I see no reason why the US dollar would not go on being the reference in the world," Strauss-Kahn said in response to a question on the international monetary system at a forum in Washington.
"There are many reasons to think that when the crisis is over we will still be in a system where the place of the US dollar will be almost the same," he said after giving a speech at the National Press Club.
"What is even surprising is that the dollar is doing well in this crisis," he added.
Strauss-Kahn said that if senior economists had been told two years ago that there would be such a crisis, "with such a big amount of toxic assets, such problems in the global economy originating from the United States, and if you had asked them what would be the consequences for the dollar, all of them would have said it would be a collapse of the dollar.
Another report adds, IMF Thursday forecast a prolonged, deep global recession, a "sluggish" recovery, and weak capital flows to emerging economies that would hammer Eastern Europe.
"The current recession is likely to be unusually long and severe and the recovery sluggish," the IMF said in releasing two chapters from its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook (WEO).
The multilateral institution offered no timeline for a recovery from the first global recession in six decades.
"There is some glimmer of hope that the stress is receding," said Stephan Danninger, an IMF economist, at a news conference.
But he said any improvement would merely reduce "extreme levels of stress" to still "very high levels" of economic stress.
The IMF said its researchers looked at patterns of business cycles in 21 advanced economies from 1960 to the present.
The study found that fiscal stimulus actions seemed "particularly effective" in helping ending recessions, while monetary policy, such as tax cuts, can help shorten their duration but is less effective.
In the United States, "there is evidence of negative feedback between asset prices, credit, and investment," it said.
In the rest of the world, "the current recessions are also highly synchronized, further dampening prospects for a normal recovery."
The financial firestorm that began in September after the collapse of Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers swept beyond advanced economies and is battering the rest of the world.
The IMF warned that "the decline in capital flows to emerging economies ... may be protracted, given the solvency problems facing advanced economy banks who provide significant financing to emerging economies."
Emerging economies in Eastern Europe were particularly vulnerable because of the heavy presence of Western European banks in their financial sectors and economies.
The IMF pointed out that past episodes of systemic banking stress in advanced economies, such as the Latin American debt crisis in the 1980s and the Japanese banking crisis of the 1990s, shows that the decline in capital flows tends to be "sizeable and drawn out."
"Given their large exposure, emerging European economies might be heavily affected," said the 185-nation institution, whose mission is to promote global stability.
The Washington-based IMF highlighted the need for global coordination to battle the downturn and contain the financial meltdown.
"A coordinated policy response by advanced and emerging economies is required to prevent further escalation and spreading of financial stress," it said.
"Reducing individual country vulnerabilities cannot insulate emerging economies from a major financial shock in advanced economies."
The publication of the first two WEO chapters, which focus on recovery from recession and the spreading of financial stress from the advanced to emerging economies, came as the IMF prepares for its spring meetings with the World Bank, to be held April 25-26 in Washington.
The grim tone of the chapters appeared to signal significant downward revisions for the forthcoming WEO forecasts, due to be published next Wednesday.
In an update last month, the IMF predicted the first global contraction in 60 years, of between an annual negative rate of 0.5 per cent and 1.0 per cent in 2009.
The world economy was expected to gradually stage a "modest recovery" in 2010, with growth between 1.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent, it said.