Survival of humankind: It all depends on us
Monday, 7 September 2009
Shibli Sadiq
ALL the talking, all the documentaries, all the international negotiations about climate change have resulted in a net achievement of less than nothing: Global emissions just keep going up and up. As Pete Postlethwaite's character says in the film The Age of Stupid, "We wouldn't be the first life form to wipe itself out. But what would be unique about us is that we did it knowingly."
That's the crux of it. We are the most intelligent creature yet to evolve. The first to understand how the overstretching resources to extinction pathway works, and the first with the potential to use our big brains to jump off that pathway before it's too late.
To maximize our chances of preventing runaway climate change, we must quickly and massively cut global emissions. To do that, we need a binding international treaty, and the last chance we have to get that within the timescale of the physics of the planet is the UN Climate Summit in Copenhagen in coming December -- the "most important meeting in human history".
Clearly the treaty isn't just made up on the spot: they've been working on it for years. The European Union (EU) deal on the table calls for a 30 per cent reduction by 2020 (compared with 1990 levels). If this deal were to be accepted - which is a very big if, given that Japan argues for 8.0 per cent, Australia for 5.0 per cent and the US for between 0 per cent and 6.0 per cent - and if the emission cuts were then carried out - which is an even bigger if - this would give us about a 50/50 chance of not hitting the dreaded 2°C. Two degrees is where we trigger runaway climate change: two leads to three, three to four, four to five, five to six ... by which time it's about over for life on Earth.
In other words, our leaders are giving us - at best - a coin-flip chance of avoiding catastrophe. It is hard to imagine a more total failing of our political system. Imagine if they were standing at a plane door. "Come on citizens, get on this plane - 50-50 chance of a safe landing: ... "
All of which means that we, non-politician humans, who depend on the climate remaining habitable had best jump into action.
By signing up to 10:10, you will commit yourself, your school, your hospital, your church, your business, to cut 10 per cent of your emissions next year. Which is easy. It's at the level of changing lightbulbs, turning down heating, driving a bit less and maybe sticking in some insulation. Four of the big six energy companies in the UK have already signed up to help their customers cut their energy usage over the course of the year. Groups from E.ON to the Women's Institute to Tottenham Hotspur Football Club to the Science Museum started rushing to sign up before we'd barely formulated the plan.
As well as being achievable for the vast majority of the population, 10 per cent in one year is the kind of cut the science tells us we need.
I was born in the early 1970s, part of the TV generation who were told by a million advertisements that the point of our existence was to shop more. Daunting though the task ahead may be, I feel enormously inspired and quite relieved that it turns out that we have something important to do. The people who came before us didn't know about climate change and the ones who come after will be powerless to stop it.
So it's down to us. Other generations came together to overturn slavery or end apartheid or win the vote for women. There is nothing intrinsically more useless about our generation and there is no doubt about what we have to do. The only question that remains is whether or not we give it a go.
ALL the talking, all the documentaries, all the international negotiations about climate change have resulted in a net achievement of less than nothing: Global emissions just keep going up and up. As Pete Postlethwaite's character says in the film The Age of Stupid, "We wouldn't be the first life form to wipe itself out. But what would be unique about us is that we did it knowingly."
That's the crux of it. We are the most intelligent creature yet to evolve. The first to understand how the overstretching resources to extinction pathway works, and the first with the potential to use our big brains to jump off that pathway before it's too late.
To maximize our chances of preventing runaway climate change, we must quickly and massively cut global emissions. To do that, we need a binding international treaty, and the last chance we have to get that within the timescale of the physics of the planet is the UN Climate Summit in Copenhagen in coming December -- the "most important meeting in human history".
Clearly the treaty isn't just made up on the spot: they've been working on it for years. The European Union (EU) deal on the table calls for a 30 per cent reduction by 2020 (compared with 1990 levels). If this deal were to be accepted - which is a very big if, given that Japan argues for 8.0 per cent, Australia for 5.0 per cent and the US for between 0 per cent and 6.0 per cent - and if the emission cuts were then carried out - which is an even bigger if - this would give us about a 50/50 chance of not hitting the dreaded 2°C. Two degrees is where we trigger runaway climate change: two leads to three, three to four, four to five, five to six ... by which time it's about over for life on Earth.
In other words, our leaders are giving us - at best - a coin-flip chance of avoiding catastrophe. It is hard to imagine a more total failing of our political system. Imagine if they were standing at a plane door. "Come on citizens, get on this plane - 50-50 chance of a safe landing: ... "
All of which means that we, non-politician humans, who depend on the climate remaining habitable had best jump into action.
By signing up to 10:10, you will commit yourself, your school, your hospital, your church, your business, to cut 10 per cent of your emissions next year. Which is easy. It's at the level of changing lightbulbs, turning down heating, driving a bit less and maybe sticking in some insulation. Four of the big six energy companies in the UK have already signed up to help their customers cut their energy usage over the course of the year. Groups from E.ON to the Women's Institute to Tottenham Hotspur Football Club to the Science Museum started rushing to sign up before we'd barely formulated the plan.
As well as being achievable for the vast majority of the population, 10 per cent in one year is the kind of cut the science tells us we need.
I was born in the early 1970s, part of the TV generation who were told by a million advertisements that the point of our existence was to shop more. Daunting though the task ahead may be, I feel enormously inspired and quite relieved that it turns out that we have something important to do. The people who came before us didn't know about climate change and the ones who come after will be powerless to stop it.
So it's down to us. Other generations came together to overturn slavery or end apartheid or win the vote for women. There is nothing intrinsically more useless about our generation and there is no doubt about what we have to do. The only question that remains is whether or not we give it a go.