Sustaining upward trend of export growth

One of the encouraging features of Bangladesh economy has been a steady growth in its export earnings over the years. In the just concluded 2015-16 financial year, Bangladesh earned US$34.25 billion from exports which is equivalent to about Tk.2739.34 billion in local currency and is an all-time record for export earnings in a single financial year. The growth was 9.72 per cent over the previous year and more importantly it was 2.21 per cent higher than the targeted amount of US$33.50 billion. In the same year the RMG sector, as expected, accounted for nearly 82 per cent of the income and an upward swing in exports could be maintained as the RMG sector performed better.
Growth of export was doubly satisfying because it was negative in the first month of 2015-16 fiscal as export went down by 11.96 per cent. The situation however started to improve in August and by the end of November the growth rate stood at 6.71 per cent. The trend continued in the same vein and export recorded an increase of 16.70 per cent in June, 2016.
Political stability in the country had been the main contributor to increased export earning in excess of the amount targeted for 2015-16 fiscal. Development projects undertaken by national action plan, Accord and Alliance for development of the RMG sector also played a lead role in this respect. Export of many other products however recorded a healthy growth rate, but none of them could exceed the targets set for them. These products include cement, fruits and vegetables, hides and skins, woolen products, electronics, frozen fish, prawns, tobacco products, plastics, handicrafts, silk, jute and jute products and bicycle. Export of prawn and fish is however in danger of losing ground because of the current volatilities of currencies in Europe as 85 per cent of our export earning from fisheries products come from Europe.
Total export from the country was worth US$31.21 billion in 2014-15, US$30.18 billion in 2013-14 and US$27.02 billion in 2012-13 fiscal years. All these are indicative of a continuous growth in export income over the years. Since over 60 per cent of our exports are shipped to EU countries, Britain's exit from EU and the recent militant attack on Holey Artisan restaurant at Gulshan have cast serious doubts over the prospects of future exports to those countries, particularly the exports of non-RMG products.  
Britain is our second largest buyer after Germany where products worth Tk.270.0 billion were exported in 11 months of the last financial year. Bangladesh enjoys preferential treatment as a LDC in all its exports to EU countries. There are serious doubts if Bangladesh will continue to enjoy the same facility subsequent upon Britain's exit from EU.
About half a million Bangladeshis live in Britain who remit a sizeable amount of foreign exchange to their country every year. The remittance from Britain in last financial year was worth Tk.8.0 billion. The experts apprehend that remittance from Britain this year may go down due to declining value of the British currency. Recently 9 Italian citizens were killed in Holey Artisan bakery at Dhaka. All of them were involved in RMG business and the said incident has forged a feeling of fear and uncertainty in the minds of foreign businessmen and foreign employees engaged in garment manufacturing and exporting trade. This may have a negative impact on our RMG exports.   
The export target for 2016-17 has been mostly based on RMG exports as other sectors could not achieve their targets last year. Britain's exit from the European Union and Gulshan tragedy have added further uncertainties for our RMG exports. Although there has been a slight increase in our exports to US, the suppliers of Bangladesh are not being able to make reasonable profit as there has been a marked increase in expenditure on compliance and energy issues. Besides, prices of raw materials have also gone down in international market causing reduction in price offered by the buyers.  
The path towards achieving the export target is strewn with some imposing challenges and appropriate steps will have to be taken to accomplish the same. Firstly, exports will have to be diversified further to maintain a steady growth. Secondly, new markets will have to be explored. Bangladesh has done remarkably well in export of food and agricultural products. Our exporters have an important role to play along side our diplomatic missions abroad to expand our exportable product range. Product quality will have to be improved further as competition intensifies. Some of our products have already made a mark in international markets which have brightened the export prospects of other commodities. Taking advantage of this possibility and by diversifying the range of exports and undertaking timely, effective and realistic steps, we must continue to explore new markets.
As upward trend of export growth has been the hallmark of our progress on one hand, retaining the growth forms the core challenges for the future on the other. We could not ensure uninterrupted supply of gas and electricity in the industrial sector due to our infrastructural limitations and the mills and factories suffered from frequent interruptions in production leaving an unhealthy impact on our exportables. Necessary infrastructure must be built to ensure uninterrupted supply of gas and electricity in export oriented industries. This is vital for our industrial growth vis-à-vis growth of exports. Besides, appropriate policies will have to be framed taking into account the facilities provided by our competitors in their countries to their export oriented industries. At the same time, a coordinated effort should be taken to ease the procedural complications and bureaucratic harassment affecting smooth industrial operations.
In view of looming uncertainties spearheaded by recent rise of militancy in the country and long standing political impasse, prospect of maintaining a steady growth in export remains under threat. However, if things can be done in the light of changed circumstances, it may not be difficult to achieve the projected growth of US$60 billion by 2021.
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