Thai crisis: A breathing space for government but deadlock remains

The loss in the legal battle for the opposition, seeking to nullify the February 02 controversial national elections in Thailand, has come as a relief for the government, but the crisis remains unresolved. The kingdom's constitutional court declined to consider the petition by the Democrat Party to annul the vote, and the development has come as a shot in the arms of the beleaguered  prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra. However, the opposition Democrat Party and the protesters clamouring for the exit of the government are keeping the pot boiling. Most analysts believe that the country will again witness political unrest after the current lull, which they consider at best as a semblance of normality -- far from the claim by the authorities that the crisis is largely over.
The south-east Asian nation has been experiencing political problems for the last few months and the elections came as no solution, even though the government was able to stage the polls. The protesters say they want drastic reforms in the system of governance and the formation of a 'people's council' that would rule the country for the time being. The demonstrators, who are creating a big headache for the government, say Thailand must get rid of "unjust and corrupt" politicians. Their leader Suthep Thaugsuban says that polls of February were not credible at all, and he continues to demand the resignation of the government. His supporters sought to block the voting, while the main opposition Democrat Party boycotted the elections, which the prime minister called much ahead of the expiry of her term.
As the political crisis in Thailand continues to linger, speculations are rife in capital Bangkok and elsewhere that things probably can not continue in this manner for too long unless some kind of settlement with the opponents of the government is reached. Many think that the army may intervene, although not immediately. Such a possibility received credence as the army had indicated that nothing is ruled out if the instability continues, causing myriad problems for the nation. The army staged coup earlier against the elected government of Thaksin Shinawatra, the self-exiled former prime minister and elder brother of present premier Yingluck Shinawatra. Now after seven years, if the same action from the army follows against Yingluck Shinawatra, it would not come as a surprise. However, the army appears to be cautious in taking any action that may be debatable.
Thailand is in the grip of a political crisis as the protesters demanding the ouster of the government of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra are showing increasing toughness in 'implementing' their demand. The prime minister has vowed not to resign and called mid-term polls, which the opposition boycotted. The election is now at the centre of controversy and the stand-off is unlikely to be resolved as the two sides have adopted diametrically opposite positions on the issue.
Thailand, known as a tourist attraction, has been facing the serious crisis over the last several years. As the unrest escalated and a tense situation prevailed, the country came under the global focus. Analysts kept their fingers crossed about the shape of things to come in the days ahead as many were speculating an army take-over. State of emergency was imposed in many parts of the country to contain the unrest threatening the polls. The voting has passed off without much violence, but there remains a big question mark since the protestors blocked the polling in many areas, while the main opposition stayed away from casting votes. The elections have not solved the problems, although it gave a relief to the government. There is also an impression that the highly revered King may also intervene if the instability persists.
Yingluck Shinawatra made history by becoming the first woman prime minister of the country following a resounding victory attained by her political party in the 2011 elections. A relatively stranger in politics, Yingluck owes the success largely to the coat-tails of her elder brother and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who lives abroad. Thaksin was quite popular in the rural areas in Thailand and also with the segments of the middle class. But the billionaire businessman-turned-politician was ousted by a military coup and was also sentenced to prison terms on allegations of corruption. He has been living abroad for the last few years and did not return to Thailand even after his political party, led by her sister, won the polls and formed the government. Evidently, he did not want to embarrass the government although an impression surfaced in the country that it is he who was calling the shots on important issues. Recently, the government made an abortive bid to facilitate his return to the country.
But this has infuriated a large number of people, who thronged the streets in capital Bangkok demanding that the government must go. Initially, in small numbers, the protesters eventually grew in strength and the authorities were grappling to cope with the snowballing condition. Demonstrators cut off power supply to the police headquarters and also gathered in great numbers before the army headquarters. The protesters, seeking to take over the prime minister's office, clashed with the riot police in a clear defiance of the authority of the government. They clashed with the 'Red Shirts' demonstrators, who are pro-government and mainly the supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra. Several deaths were reported in the clashes and the situation was turning explosive with the tourists keeping themselves away from Thailand, and foreign missions asking their nationals to take greater care of their security. The prime minister offered olive branch by 'curbing' her tenure and announcing fresh polls. But the protesters, led by former opposition MP Suthep Thaugusaban, asked the prime minister to quit and set up a 'National Council' to run the country.
The protesters are pursuing a quixotic goal of ridding the country of the influence of Thaksin Shinawatra. They say they are frustrated with his dominance and also disillusioned with the current 'democratic practice'. An alternative to democracy has also been coined under the title of the 'people's council' comprising the leading figures of different professions. The government, not surprisingly, has poured cold water on the proposal.
There is a fluid situation in Thailand that can go either way - favouring the government or otherwise. All this depends on the strength of the protesters as to how long they can continue the agitation, and how much crowd they can garner in support of their demand. Prime Minister Yingluck has hardly any choice but to resort to strict measures to confront the challenge. But the situation suggests a clear stand-off, and this raises speculations of some kind of development that may not help any side.
Thailand is not known for stable democracy as the nascent system of pluralistic pattern of government has been afflicted mainly because of politicians' mistakes or actions that have not been compatible with the hopes and aspirations of the people. Yingluck should not have shown unnecessary leniency to her brother Tahksin, who is otherwise quite powerful even if he is not physically present in the country because of the problems related to his sentence.
The demonstrators have prevented 10,000 polling stations from opening on the election day, affecting several million people, mainly at the opposition strongholds in Bangkok and in the south. The election commission said results would not be announced until voting was completed in all the constituencies. Yingluck would remain in a caretaker role with limited powers until 95 per cent of the 500 seats of the lower house of parliament are filled to enable the formation of a new government.
The premier called the polls to assuage the opposition protesters, who have been demanding for more than four months her resignation. The polls have taken place in a one-sided manner, and this has not produced any effective solution for the political crisis.             
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