Thailand heading into a political storm
Wednesday, 2 January 2008
Marwaan Macan-Markar
Thailand's transition from military rule to a democratically elected administration appears far from smooth. The results of the first general election since the September 2006 coup d'etat point to a nation heading into a political storm in the New Year.
Hints of the acrimony that lies ahead emerged within the first week of the Dec. 23 election. Sections of the country's independent press have responded with alarm at the political party that secured the highest number of votes, the People Power Party (PPP). The latter's triumph, winning 233 seats in the 480-member legislature, gives it the right to take the first crack at forming a coalition government.
Media hostility towards the PPP stem from the strong links the victor at the polls has with the twice-elected former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was forced out of power by the military junta in the September 2006 putsch. A similar anti-PPP line has also been attributed to others in this kingdom who view Thaksin and Samak Sundaravej, the PPP leader, with equal disdain. They range from the military leaders and the conservative bureaucrats to the more affluent members of Bangkok's society and the entrenched pro-monarchist elite.
''If the PPP does form a coalition government it will not enjoy a political honeymoon,'' Kavi Chongkittavorn, a senior editor and columnist of 'The Nation', a daily newspaper, told IPS. ''Criticism of the government will begin from the first day, continuing what is already being said.''
''Samak will be the foremost target if he ends up as prime minister,'' added Kavi. ''He may be destroyed by the media in the first three months, since he has always had a hostile relationship with journalists. This was not the case with some of the previous prime ministers, who enjoyed a political honeymoon for a few months after forming a new government.''
And if the PPP fails to cobble up a coalition before the new parliament opens, on Jan. 23, it leaves room for the Democrat Party to have a go at shaping the next administration. The Democrats secured the second highest number of seats, 165, giving it sufficient legitimacy to challenge the PPP. There are five smaller parties -- including Chart Thai (Thai Nation), which won 37 seats, and Puea Pandin (For the Motherland), 24 seats -- that the PPP and the Democrats have their eyes on in this hour of political horse-trading.
Yet, as academics point out, a Democrat-led coalition government would not enjoy a charmed life, either. It would be up against another powerful constituency, in terms of numbers, the country's urban and rural poor, who threw their weight solidly behind the PPP at the December poll. That was largely due to the pro-poor and welfare policies that the PPP campaigned on in the same way Thaksin had during the 2001 and 2005 poll to win the backing of this economically marginalised vote bank.
Such a prospect of instability would not be new to this South-east Asian country, though. It is well known for the short lifespans of its coalition governments. During the 1990s, Bangkok came under the authority of seven prime ministers, some elected, some appointed. And over a four-year period in that decade, there was a parliamentary election every year.
It was Thaksin, a billionaire telecommunication tycoon prior to leading the country, and his Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thai - TRT) party that bucked this trend, following a thumping victory at the 2001 general elections. He became the country's first prime minister to complete a four-year term. And his party's re-election with a larger majority earned him another milestone: the first of the country's 24 prime ministers to be returned to power for back-to-back terms.
The foundation for the TRT political juggernaut was built on the unprecedented policies it implemented to help the millions of the rural and urban poor. They ranged from a universal healthcare scheme to funds pumped into villages to boost the grassroots economy. Consequently, the country's largest voting bloc was transformed into a more politically awakened constituency.
Such a distinct shift, however, was dismissed by Bangkok's middle- and upper-middle classes, who took to the streets in early 2006 demanding Thaksin's ouster due to allegations of corruption, nepotism and abuse of power. This political awakening was also ignored by the military leaders, who tapped the anti-Thaksin sentiment in the capital to launch the country's 18th coup.
Little wonder why Bangkok's well-heeled, who reportedly voted in large numbers for the Democrats, and the junta, which has been exposed trying to undermine the PPP's campaign, find it hard to accept the political reality unfolded at the recent poll.
One senior member of the military-appointed cabinet has even told the state-run Thai News Agency that another coup cannot be ruled out. Such views suggest that Thailand's deep political divide be easily bridged in 2008. ''We are now a deeply polarised society and I cannot see the possibility of compromise in the New Year,'' says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.
''The real silent majority in the countryside have been awakened, and they will keep voting for policies that deal with their concerns,'' he added during an interview. ''The only way to bridge this difference is if the people who have power, the wealthy, seriously address the concerns of the poor. But the establishment does not appear willing to do so.''
Inter Press Service
Thailand's transition from military rule to a democratically elected administration appears far from smooth. The results of the first general election since the September 2006 coup d'etat point to a nation heading into a political storm in the New Year.
Hints of the acrimony that lies ahead emerged within the first week of the Dec. 23 election. Sections of the country's independent press have responded with alarm at the political party that secured the highest number of votes, the People Power Party (PPP). The latter's triumph, winning 233 seats in the 480-member legislature, gives it the right to take the first crack at forming a coalition government.
Media hostility towards the PPP stem from the strong links the victor at the polls has with the twice-elected former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was forced out of power by the military junta in the September 2006 putsch. A similar anti-PPP line has also been attributed to others in this kingdom who view Thaksin and Samak Sundaravej, the PPP leader, with equal disdain. They range from the military leaders and the conservative bureaucrats to the more affluent members of Bangkok's society and the entrenched pro-monarchist elite.
''If the PPP does form a coalition government it will not enjoy a political honeymoon,'' Kavi Chongkittavorn, a senior editor and columnist of 'The Nation', a daily newspaper, told IPS. ''Criticism of the government will begin from the first day, continuing what is already being said.''
''Samak will be the foremost target if he ends up as prime minister,'' added Kavi. ''He may be destroyed by the media in the first three months, since he has always had a hostile relationship with journalists. This was not the case with some of the previous prime ministers, who enjoyed a political honeymoon for a few months after forming a new government.''
And if the PPP fails to cobble up a coalition before the new parliament opens, on Jan. 23, it leaves room for the Democrat Party to have a go at shaping the next administration. The Democrats secured the second highest number of seats, 165, giving it sufficient legitimacy to challenge the PPP. There are five smaller parties -- including Chart Thai (Thai Nation), which won 37 seats, and Puea Pandin (For the Motherland), 24 seats -- that the PPP and the Democrats have their eyes on in this hour of political horse-trading.
Yet, as academics point out, a Democrat-led coalition government would not enjoy a charmed life, either. It would be up against another powerful constituency, in terms of numbers, the country's urban and rural poor, who threw their weight solidly behind the PPP at the December poll. That was largely due to the pro-poor and welfare policies that the PPP campaigned on in the same way Thaksin had during the 2001 and 2005 poll to win the backing of this economically marginalised vote bank.
Such a prospect of instability would not be new to this South-east Asian country, though. It is well known for the short lifespans of its coalition governments. During the 1990s, Bangkok came under the authority of seven prime ministers, some elected, some appointed. And over a four-year period in that decade, there was a parliamentary election every year.
It was Thaksin, a billionaire telecommunication tycoon prior to leading the country, and his Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thai - TRT) party that bucked this trend, following a thumping victory at the 2001 general elections. He became the country's first prime minister to complete a four-year term. And his party's re-election with a larger majority earned him another milestone: the first of the country's 24 prime ministers to be returned to power for back-to-back terms.
The foundation for the TRT political juggernaut was built on the unprecedented policies it implemented to help the millions of the rural and urban poor. They ranged from a universal healthcare scheme to funds pumped into villages to boost the grassroots economy. Consequently, the country's largest voting bloc was transformed into a more politically awakened constituency.
Such a distinct shift, however, was dismissed by Bangkok's middle- and upper-middle classes, who took to the streets in early 2006 demanding Thaksin's ouster due to allegations of corruption, nepotism and abuse of power. This political awakening was also ignored by the military leaders, who tapped the anti-Thaksin sentiment in the capital to launch the country's 18th coup.
Little wonder why Bangkok's well-heeled, who reportedly voted in large numbers for the Democrats, and the junta, which has been exposed trying to undermine the PPP's campaign, find it hard to accept the political reality unfolded at the recent poll.
One senior member of the military-appointed cabinet has even told the state-run Thai News Agency that another coup cannot be ruled out. Such views suggest that Thailand's deep political divide be easily bridged in 2008. ''We are now a deeply polarised society and I cannot see the possibility of compromise in the New Year,'' says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.
''The real silent majority in the countryside have been awakened, and they will keep voting for policies that deal with their concerns,'' he added during an interview. ''The only way to bridge this difference is if the people who have power, the wealthy, seriously address the concerns of the poor. But the establishment does not appear willing to do so.''
Inter Press Service