The breathing spell should last longer

Politics in Bangladesh seems to have become quieter and more peaceful. Despite local conflicts and violence occasioned by the upazila polls, the overall political scene is one of electoral competition in peace. This is as it should be in any functional democracy. One hopes that this trend will last in the remaining packages of upazila elections and thereby strengthen the country's fledgling democracy.
The political atmosphere as existence in the present raises high hopes for the economy. There is no doubt that apart from the valuable lives lost in the pre-national polls clashes and violence, the worst sufferer has been the economy. The long and relentless political conflict preceding the January 05, 2014 national elections cost, according to some estimates, around taka one hundred thousand crores (1,000 billions). This is almost half of our last year's national budget. Bangladesh, despite its challenging economic problems, is a promising entity. According to the International Monitoring Fund (IMF), "Bangladesh ranked as the 44th largest economy in the World in 2012 in PPP terms and 57th largest in nominal terms with a gross domestic product of US $ 306 billion in PPP terms and US $153.6 billion in nominal terms." Again, the 2012 projection of the HSBC said, "Bangladesh will be the World's 31st largest economy in 2050 when ranked by total gross domestic product (GDP) and 89th when ranked by GDP per capita". This is music to our ears. The question, however, is: Can such a promising economy afford to lose half of its annual budget on account of intense and widespread political turmoil and violence? The recent political tumult in the country was caused on the issue of polls-time government. The ruling Awami League (AL) was adamant on holding the elections to the Jatiyo Sangsad (Parliament) under an interim party government while the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition, was equally adamant on restoring the system of non-party, neutral caretaker government to hold the elections.
Based on a judgment of the highest court, the ruling Awami League amended the constitution and abolished the system of non-party caretaker government that it itself caused to be brought forth in 1996 through a successful movement. On the contrary, the BNP, the ruling party at that time, opposed it as long as it could and then gave in. But in 2013 or even from before, the BNP with its allies went all-out demanding the reintroduction of caretaker polls-time government. Failing to secure the objective even after long months of agitation accompanied by serious violence, they boycotted the elections. The ruling party, however, went ahead with the polls. More than half, 154 candidates, were elected uncontested. The rest of the 300 seats were filled up by elections with low turnout. Critics said not more than 5-10 per cent came to vote. The authorities, however, claimed that as many as 40 per cent of the voters participated in the polls.
Both at home and abroad, the 2014 parliamentary polls were considered seriously flawed and much less than what a vibrant democracy demanded. The opposition straight away condemned the new Awami League government as "illegitimate". A major part of the civil society also questioned the moral basis of the polls. Development partners, including superpower USA, the European Union and China, were critical. India, the regional power, was the only country which agreed with the Awami League government that such elections were necessitated by real conditions and constitutional obligation. Even in India, non-government circles, particularly powerful sections of the media, were highly critical of Bangladesh's faulty elections.
Whatever that may be, reality has proved to be, by and large, more powerful than theory. The polls led to the formation of a principally Awami League government which has been accepted openly at home and abroad. Even its sworn opponent, the BNP, has joined the local-level upazila elections under this government. Although these elections are not theoretically on the basis of political parties, it is open knowledge that candidates belong to one party or another. In the elections so far held in 216 upazilas, BNP candidates have won a majority 94 chairmen, Awami League, 78 chairmen, and BNP's official ally Jamaat-e-Islami, although without registration with the Election Commission, won 20 seats. What will happen in the rest of a total of 460 upazilas is for the future to tell. If the present trend continues, the BNP and its allies will grab the majority.
Whatever happens, it seems both major parties can, politically, claim to have won. Awami League would say that the BNP has virtually accepted the government it called "illegitimate". Moreover, these elections will show that even under the Awami League government elections can be reasonably free and fair. On the other hand, the BNP will say that the upazila elections show that they have the confidence of the majority of voters who also supported their demand for caretaker government.
Both sides are free to claim what they want to, as long as their differing claims do not lead to violent political conflict. The nation has already suffered serious economic losses because of violent political combats. It has now got a breathing spell. It is time to calmly pick up the pieces and repair the colossal damage of the people's economic life.
Trade and industry have been dangerously challenged. Investment has reached an all-time low. Although the Bangladesh Bank tries to explain feebly, there is no doubt that nearly Tk 840 billion (84 thousand crore) lie idle in banks and financial institutions. Remittance from wage-earners abroad, though still around US $14 billion, have declined last year. Garments exports, earning US $20 billion a year, were hit hard by the political strife of 2013.
All these sectors and sub-sectors now have a breathing space and are not only controlling the damage but on the way to recovery and improvement. It is important that this breathing spell should last longer for the sound economic health of the nation. It is no use apportioning blames to one or the other political parties. The January 05, 2014 parliamentary polls and all that happened for months before inflicted incalculable harm to the nation's politics, economy and society. The polluted, distorted and conflictual politics have made our democracy dysfunctional in substance. The political class has become alienated from the people. Further degeneration of politics would lead to more civic apathy weakening the state. We cannot afford such luxury any more. We have to advise the physicians to heal themselves. The politicians must heed to the demands of moving times. Outdated concepts and dogmas will not do any more. Conflicts based on irrelevant and past issues will only bleed the nation white. Outsiders will take advantage of our divisions and strife. We, the politicians and people as well, should remember what happened before and after the battle of Plassey in 1757.
Dr. Mizanur Rahman Shelley, founder Chairman of Centre for Development Research, Bangladesh (CDRB) and Editor quarterly "Asian Affairs", was a former teacher of political science in Dhaka University and former member of the erstwhile Civil Service of Pakistan (CSP) and former                     non-partisan technocrat Cabinet Minister of Bangladesh.