The costs of Trump-Netanyahu's dirty war

It has been the dirtiest of all wars, if by dirty is meant a cunning, stealthy, unprovoked and no-holds barred war. America and Iran were ostensibly (from the aggressors' point of view) negotiating under the good offices of the Omani mediator. Given three subjects for negotiation, Iran lost no time in drawing the red line, taking ballistic missiles and ties with regional allies off the table. On the most sensitive and crucial issue of Iran's nuclear programme, significant progress was reported by the Omani mediator who felt so satisfied that he flew to Washington to report to authorities first hand. Before he could see anyone of consequence the undeclared stealth war had begun. This was most unprecedented and in gross violation of international law regarding war. Had the American side withdrawn from negotiation and declared that talks had failed, Iran and the world at large would know that war was on the cards. The month-long mobilisation of military assets in the Middle-East was enough of an indication that president Trump was making preparations for a full scale war as the next step. There would have been a semblance of legality and transparency behind the subsequent war. But this was a reprise of June 2025 war when in the midst of negotiation between America and Iran, Israel launched a surprise attack. Instead of reprimanding Israel for scuttling the negotiation, president Trump was effusive in his praise for the efficient use being made by Israel of American weaponry. It was soon followed by America's own bombing of nuclear sites in Iran.
That playbook waging surprise attack while diverting attention through diplomatic talks has been played again by America and with greater ferocity this time. By dooming this president Trump has proved himself to be a duplicitous leader who behaves like an errant criminal and as such cannot be trusted. Peace until diplomacy failed was an article of faith for all countries in the past. America has destroyed that assumption and belief at one fell swoop by attacking Iran without declaring war. There was no provocation from Iran's side to justify the sudden joint-attack by America and Israel. This is what makes the ongoing war against Iran ''dirty'. The second element that makes the war dirty is targeting heads of state and political leaders for kidnapping and assassination. Kidnapping president Maduro from Venezuela was a blatant case of violation of national sovereignty and a rank criminal act. To think that America, the bastion of democracy and rule of law, would behave like an outlaw in the wild west of yore is mind boggling. Yet that is what happened. Now, president Trump has upped the ante and openly declared that top leaders of Iran had been decapitated after the surprise attack. Assassinations of leaders as part of waging war was so long the exclusive preserve of the rogue state of Israel. America has joined hands with Israel in this heinous act of assassinating leaders of adversary countries. By making this part of the tactic and also strategy, America has made the war against Iran a dirty one. The third element that has made the ongoing war dirty is the wanton killing of civilians. On the very first day of bombing, an American Tomahawk missile killed 45 school children in Tehran. A pathological liar, that president Trump is, lost no time in apportioning blame to Iran even though the whole world knows that Iran does not possess Tomahawks. The killing of civilians in large numbers has already tainted the war as 'dirty'.
The war against Iran is so dirty that America's allies in several alliances (NATO, and G- 7) have distanced themselves from the war saying in one voice that it is not their war. This is the most humiliating cost of the war affecting American diplomacy and foreign policy. First it was the maverick imposition of wide-ranging tariff on trading partners that shook the confidence of many countries about the fairness and consistency in America's foreign policy. Now comes the Iran war, planned and executed in secrecy.
Among the human costs of the war, both America and Israel have censored the number of casualties of their combatants lest there is a popular backlash at home. But Iran being the victim of aggression has been forthcoming in releasing numbers of deaths and injured. According to official Iranian source, so far 1700 hundred civilians have been killed and several thousand injured with many more displaced. The destructions of houses and civilian infrastructure have been extensive in Tehran.
The attacks on Gulf countries and Saudi Arabia by Iran have brought condemnations against both from the affected countries and European Union (EU). But their failure to condemn the unprovoked and surprise attack against Iran has exposed their double standard and also their subservience to America. Some European countries like United Kingdom (UK), while refusing to join America in the war has allowed their airbases to be used by America for attack against Iran, thereby getting involved in the war even if indirectly. France has also sent an aircraft carrier to the Middle-East. The attitude of these countries is ambivalent, not neutral. If the European countries think that President Trump has unilaterally taken a decision that not only harms the alliances like NATO but also jeopardises world peace and growth of the global economy by violently disrupting the supply chains, they should say so without their tongues in cheek. Failure to do so and indirect participation in the Iran war is complicating the situation, making it not only prolonged but also allowing it spiral out of control. World wars have evolved like this and that lesson should not be forgotten.
The economic costs have been more obvious and are becoming worse by the day. Bombings of gulf countries and Saudi Arabia have had immediate impact on oil and gas markets. Brent crude oil that was $75 dollar per barrel before the war soared above $100 immediately after the war broke out and was $112 dollar on 27 March. Gas price has risen in all countries following the closure of Hormuz strait as 20 per cent of LNG passes through that choke point. President Trump has mobilised a vast armada complete with manpower and a land invasion appears imminent. Irrespective of who wins in that phase of war, the certainty that oil and gas supply will be disrupted for a long time is almost certain. This means not only increase in prices of oil and gas but also petro- based products like fertilizer. About 49 per cent of urea fertilizer is exported by gulf countries. After the start of the Iran war the price of urea has risen by 49 per cent and is likely to increase further if the war lingers. The impact of increase in urea price has already been reflected in 5 per cent increase in cereal and vegetable production according to FAO. Besides food items prices of almost all items traded will increase due to disruption in supply chain. According to Asian Development Bank (ADB), Middle-East conflict could cut economic growth in developing Asia and Pacific by up to 1.3 percentage points in 2026- 2027 period and push inflation higher by 3.2 percentage points. Higher energy prices, supply chain disruptions, tighter financial conditions and potential setbacks to remittances would weigh on economies Bangladesh, according to the ADB forecast. The multilateral agency also mentioned that the impact will largely depend on how long the disruptions last, with short-lived tensions having limited effects while prolonged shocks could cause deeper and more persistent damage. It noted adverse effects on growth will be most severe for economies in developing south-east Asia, with inflation rising highest in South Asian countries. Prolonged energy disruptions could force economies in developing Asia to navigate a difficult trade-off between weaker growth and higher inflation, ADB report has said.
The developed countries have also taken a beating from energy supply disruptions with oil and gas prices on the rise. The International Energy Authority (IEA), a body of European countries, has already recommended release of 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves. The stock market indices have been showing southward trend as investors are hesitant to invest in a skittish market. The CEO of Blackrock, the leading investment bank in America, has said in an interview given to BBC that if the price of crude oil per barrel increases to $150 dollar there will be global recession.
While almost all countries are taking emergency measures to cope with the crisis, there appears to be a sense of complacence among policy makers in Bangladesh. It should be realised that the situation can become worse than during the Covid pandemic. Therefore, advance planning has to be made to address emerging adverse conditions. To begin with, measures to reduce use of gas, oil and diesel should be put in place immediately to conserve oil and gas. Since unemployment is likely to worsen, essential goods should be sold through public food distribution system.
President Trump, in keeping with his mercurial temper, has given Iran so called reprieve of 10 days to agree to his 15 points for a deal. The conditions are so onerous and one- sided that Iran is not likely to sign on dotted lines. Besides, they know the 15 points are a ploy to give time to Trump to have his commandos ready for a ground invasion of Iran's strategic islands to control oil resources permanently. The ensuing battle over the islands threatens to be as devastating as Biblical Armageddon. The world economy has experienced nothing like this. We can only hope for the best while preparing for the worst.

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