The Egyptian military tightens its grip

The much-hyped referendum in Egypt held by the army-backed government will definitely help the military tighten its grip in the running of a country where the only democratically elected president had a very short span of rule. The referendum is also likely to facilitate army strongman General Abdel Fatah al Sisi's emergence as the president of the nation, following the footsteps of other military strongmen.
The just-concluded referendum on the new constitution that dilutes and drops several clauses of the last constitution, which was framed by the elected government of Mohamed Morsi, was approved by the people overwhelmingly. However, the turnout was not satisfactory and, more particularly, the youths, who played key role in the ouster of two presidents - one autocrat and other elected in recent times, were largely absent in giving their views in the referendum. The latest development suggests that former president Mohamed Morsi, detained and facing trial, is set to have tougher time unless things unexpectedly favour him.
 Morsi was overthrown by the armed forces in mid-last year. He was in power for only one year. The military took over, the constitution was suspended and parliament was dissolved. Morsi's political rivals, who were clamouring for his resignation and fresh elections, were jubilant over the development although they earlier said that a military coup to remove the president could not be supported. Undoubtedly, the Islamist president got embroiled in a myriad of problems that he could not resolve and consequently, had to leave. Probably, he had to be largely blamed for his fate. But the development came contrary to democratic practice and spirit. Egypt, the Land of the Nile, plunged into uncertainties - future of democracy seems dark at the moment. Nation's' powerful military enjoyed power all through barring the one year that the elected government was at the helm. The army promised to give elections, but when these will take place in the military-dominated country, remains a big question mark.
President Mohamed Morsi had opted for a realistic approach as regards his government's ties with the powerful military. Evidently, he sought to play down the differences that had arisen between him and the military immediately before and after the 2012 election. Morsi won the presidential polls and carved out a niche for himself in the history of Egypt, which is the largest country in the Arab world in terms of population and also wields considerable influence in the regional and international world.
Soon after taking over as president, Morsi played down the tensions with the armed forces on a variety of issues. Such tensions stemmed from the fact that the military was not quitting the scene as far as real power is concerned even in a democratic setup. He had praised the armed forces for all the positive developments that took place in the country since the fall of the autocrat Hosni Mubarak, who quit as a sequel of the unrest blowing cross the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region demanding democratic and economic reforms. Mors's stance had set at rest the speculations about a worsening ties between his government and the military. But later, the armed forces acted as the beleaguered president rejected an ultimatum to resolve problems with his political rivals or quit the scene in 24 hours. He insisted that he was the elected president for a five-year term. Nonetheless, he was overthrown and placed under house arrest.
Just before the presidential elections in July 2012, the military had stripped the would-be elected president the main powers and entrusted itself with many key functions, including legislative authorities. Worse was the decision that the president would not be the supreme commander of the armed forces and also that the army would have a "say" in the foreign and the financial matters. All these notwithstanding, the presidential polls took place and Mohamed Morsi won the race in the run-off voting in a tough contest against Mubarak-era prime minister Ahmed Shafiq. The new president was a candidate with the Muslim Brotherhood background and he seldom received any support from the military, whose key persons are hangover from the Mubarak regime. Nevertheless, the army did not create any major bottlenecks on Morsi's taking over the presidency since he was elected by the people while powers of the would-be president had already been curbed. The tensions between the two sides were quite discernible as the military had earlier also dissolved the elected parliament that was dominated by the supporters of Morsi and other Islamists groups.  
However, Morsi, conscious of the role of the armed forces in the Egyptian scene over the last several decades, seemed veering towards the view that a confrontation with the army - howsoever right and ethical that might be as democratic practice - will not be beneficial for the nation and his government. Despite the fact that people would like to see the power resting with the elected authorities, Mohamed Morsi realised that anything that could jeopardise the nascent democracy should not be desirable and may not bring good results in the long run.
Whatever was the rationale of the reconciliatory tone of Morsi in dealing with the military, this had at least removed a potentially dangerous threat to his government. But Morsi later attempted to make the government really democratic and removed very powerful Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi as defence minister and also axed some other key generals. But his own defence minister and army chief General Abdul Fattah al-Sisi did not hesitate to act against him when the army felt the pot is boiling. Morsi's opponents cheered the development in the famous Tahrir Square - the site of the earlier democratic movement. True, Morsi's many agendas in the government drew controversy and debate and the secular forces were against him. He was definitely acting too much on the Islamic agenda and failed to develop a broad support base of all political forces. But fact remains that Egypt's much-acclaimed democracy hung in the balance and shrouded in uncertainty.
Now, with the referendum, the military has found a bigger role in the running of the nation. And General Sisi said that he would not mind to seek presidency if there is a "popular demand". After the referendum, this would be quite easy for the General who seems very formidable in the Egyptian scene.
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