The great game with China, India
Saturday, 20 March 2010
Enayet Rasul Bhuiyan
Bangladesh Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina is now in her official visit to China. This is the first such visit to that country since her taking over the reins of government for the second time in Bangladesh. The visit is seen as one of great significance for Bangladesh since only months ago she had visited India, a regional as well as international rival of China for mastery, influence and expansion of economic and trade interests not only in Asia, but also across the world.
In the backdrop of the highly competitive relations between Asia's two heavyweights, Bangladesh's geographical location of being too close to the two powers, gives it a unique position which can be exploited to its advantages.
Bangladesh can draw from the various strengths of its two very powerful neighbours or can become the target of hostility of one of them or both in turns. Clearly, Bangladesh's best option would be keeping both of them friendly towards it. It must not be seen as tilting too much in favour of one that would help create misgivings about its motive for the other. Out of vital necessity, Bangladesh must learn to play off the two countries as counterweights against each other while steering its vital interests successfully through such triangular relationships.
Thus, Sheikh Hasina's trip to China is an opportunity for Bangladesh to clear up any misunderstandings between the two countries that may have cropped up following her earlier trip to India. It should give Bangladesh a good opportunity to explain to the top Chinese leaders directly that improving or strengthening relations with India is not at China's expense. The best arts of diplomacy will have to be exercised by Sheikh Hasina and her entourage to drive the message home to Chinese leaders that her trip to India was not part of a ganging up against Beijing's vital interests. Furthermore, Chinese leaders need to be persuaded to the view that Bangladesh's allowing or seeking geographical connectivity with India is a process which will also facilitate China in its regional and global trade provided it wants to become a partner in promoting regional connectivity plans.
But Bangladesh must convince China about its absolute neutrality over territorial claims that both China and India have on vast expanses of land in and around their common borders. For example, China claims sovereignty and control over Arunachal Pradesh, a big land mass to the north of Bangladesh under Indian occupation and control. China similarly claims the presently Indian occupied Ladakh area in the northwest. After the Sino-Indian wars in the early part of the sixties, these claims have remained dormant. But China appears to be reviving them strongly in recent times. In these circumstances, Bangladesh's geographical position has immense strategic value to India and China.
Only a strip of sixteen miles of intervening Indian territory at one point in Bangladesh's northern borders prevents Bangladesh from having a direct border with China. If during any physical conflict between India and China, any push through by Chinese forces across this sixteen miles strip of territory occur, such a development will lead to complete geographical isolation of the seven north-eastern Indian states with the rest of India. In that case, Indian forces would be able to reach the theater of conflict if only Bangladesh allows Indian forces to travel directly through Bangladesh territories.
Apparently, this situation appears to make Bangladesh physically vulnerable. But it can be a clout or a leverage also to be exercised by Dhaka to keep its relations with Beijing and New Delhi on an even keel and squeeze out maximum benefits from both of them. Bangladesh can play off this geostrategic situation to its great advantage by acting smartly, impartially and even-handedly between the two countries.
The best course for Bangladesh to take in bilateral relations with the two countries would be one of maintaining its strict non committal posture to the military issues having the potential of triggering conflicts between them. While doing this, Bangladesh must seek out all forms of aid and trading opportunities with the two countries. China is the country today with the highest foreign currency reserve in hundreds of trillions of dollars. Therefore, it is emerging as a major player in giving aid to countries in need. Bangladesh must try and get more aid from China to build up specially its infrastructures. Let us also hope that the PM's visit will unlock the way to getting more aid from China and concessions that would allow greater export of Bangladeshi goods to China's markets both in number and volumes. Besides, China can be an educator to Bangladesh in showing enterprises in this country how to be more competitive using appropriate and low cost but efficient technology.
China today is an economic miracle. Analysts are predicting that it will surpass the USA sooner rather than later in economic strengths. Bangladesh is fortunate in having such an economic powerhouse as its almost direct neighbor. China can be a great source for Bangladesh to draw from and learn in its various forms of economic enterprising. But the prerequisites to that would be deepening relations with China --first-- through carefully considered moves.
Bangladesh Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina is now in her official visit to China. This is the first such visit to that country since her taking over the reins of government for the second time in Bangladesh. The visit is seen as one of great significance for Bangladesh since only months ago she had visited India, a regional as well as international rival of China for mastery, influence and expansion of economic and trade interests not only in Asia, but also across the world.
In the backdrop of the highly competitive relations between Asia's two heavyweights, Bangladesh's geographical location of being too close to the two powers, gives it a unique position which can be exploited to its advantages.
Bangladesh can draw from the various strengths of its two very powerful neighbours or can become the target of hostility of one of them or both in turns. Clearly, Bangladesh's best option would be keeping both of them friendly towards it. It must not be seen as tilting too much in favour of one that would help create misgivings about its motive for the other. Out of vital necessity, Bangladesh must learn to play off the two countries as counterweights against each other while steering its vital interests successfully through such triangular relationships.
Thus, Sheikh Hasina's trip to China is an opportunity for Bangladesh to clear up any misunderstandings between the two countries that may have cropped up following her earlier trip to India. It should give Bangladesh a good opportunity to explain to the top Chinese leaders directly that improving or strengthening relations with India is not at China's expense. The best arts of diplomacy will have to be exercised by Sheikh Hasina and her entourage to drive the message home to Chinese leaders that her trip to India was not part of a ganging up against Beijing's vital interests. Furthermore, Chinese leaders need to be persuaded to the view that Bangladesh's allowing or seeking geographical connectivity with India is a process which will also facilitate China in its regional and global trade provided it wants to become a partner in promoting regional connectivity plans.
But Bangladesh must convince China about its absolute neutrality over territorial claims that both China and India have on vast expanses of land in and around their common borders. For example, China claims sovereignty and control over Arunachal Pradesh, a big land mass to the north of Bangladesh under Indian occupation and control. China similarly claims the presently Indian occupied Ladakh area in the northwest. After the Sino-Indian wars in the early part of the sixties, these claims have remained dormant. But China appears to be reviving them strongly in recent times. In these circumstances, Bangladesh's geographical position has immense strategic value to India and China.
Only a strip of sixteen miles of intervening Indian territory at one point in Bangladesh's northern borders prevents Bangladesh from having a direct border with China. If during any physical conflict between India and China, any push through by Chinese forces across this sixteen miles strip of territory occur, such a development will lead to complete geographical isolation of the seven north-eastern Indian states with the rest of India. In that case, Indian forces would be able to reach the theater of conflict if only Bangladesh allows Indian forces to travel directly through Bangladesh territories.
Apparently, this situation appears to make Bangladesh physically vulnerable. But it can be a clout or a leverage also to be exercised by Dhaka to keep its relations with Beijing and New Delhi on an even keel and squeeze out maximum benefits from both of them. Bangladesh can play off this geostrategic situation to its great advantage by acting smartly, impartially and even-handedly between the two countries.
The best course for Bangladesh to take in bilateral relations with the two countries would be one of maintaining its strict non committal posture to the military issues having the potential of triggering conflicts between them. While doing this, Bangladesh must seek out all forms of aid and trading opportunities with the two countries. China is the country today with the highest foreign currency reserve in hundreds of trillions of dollars. Therefore, it is emerging as a major player in giving aid to countries in need. Bangladesh must try and get more aid from China to build up specially its infrastructures. Let us also hope that the PM's visit will unlock the way to getting more aid from China and concessions that would allow greater export of Bangladeshi goods to China's markets both in number and volumes. Besides, China can be an educator to Bangladesh in showing enterprises in this country how to be more competitive using appropriate and low cost but efficient technology.
China today is an economic miracle. Analysts are predicting that it will surpass the USA sooner rather than later in economic strengths. Bangladesh is fortunate in having such an economic powerhouse as its almost direct neighbor. China can be a great source for Bangladesh to draw from and learn in its various forms of economic enterprising. But the prerequisites to that would be deepening relations with China --first-- through carefully considered moves.