The party is over!
Wednesday, 21 December 2011
Mizanur Rahman Shelley
There is little doubt that the world economy is on the doorsteps of a dark decline. The increasingly integrative nature of global economy makes the prospects alarming even for less developed and developing countries such as Bangladesh. It is imperative for the leaders of these most vulnerable countries wake up and take practical steps to defend their nations from the onslaught of the coming disaster. The storm signals are flashing with increasing intensity. It is necessary while there is still time to understand, analyse and act to respond to the unfolding Doomsday scenario. While many experts, economists and business leaders have sketched different pictures of the impending turmoil, one of the best was portrayed by a non-westerner in an interview in the Hard Talk Programme of the BBC World TV and Radio a few days ago. Mohamed El-Erian, CEO, PIMCO is evidently an outstanding "insider" in the world capital and investment arena. He works as an immensely successfully investment and money-manager in charge of a trillion dollar of other people's money. Among his clients are prosperous corporations and rich individuals, completely satisfied with his deft performance in today's tumultuous global business. His analysis of the woes of the existing capitalist system in the West felt penetrating and spellbinding. Although a remarkably successful member and beneficiary of the system, he skillfully outlined the nature and process of its dangerous decline. What he said in that engaging interview summed up the evolving crises in the heart of the capitalist domain. The commentator observed that "the core problem in Europe is division and divergence" on one hand of the strong economies, such as Germany and France the weak economies at the periphery like Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and even central economy, such as Italy on the other. The division is deepening and widening. Thanks to the joint initiative and efforts of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy a damage control and salvage plan has been drawn up. Twenty six of the Euro zone countries have consented to the signing of a new treaty under which the members would be subject to more rigorous financial discipline. Britain has forcefully opted to stand outside these new arrangements. Division on ideological lines in North America and in particular the USA pose great danger to the societies there. The difference and split here is between the rich and the well-off represented mainly in the conservative right, the Republicans and the less resourceful poorer people represented by 'left' leaning Democrats. The divide is both political and economic with politics as the dominant partner. The schism is becoming deeper and greater. The two sides are fast moving away from each other. The conservative-rich is crying for the reduction and even the end of welfare programmes for the poor and arrest of greater taxation on the better-off. By contrast, continued the Manager for the Rich, the relatively poor and deprived people displaying their rising irritation and great anger at existing inequity and injustice by participating in the ever expanding movement for occupying heartlands of capitalism such as Wall Street in New York. They are correct in protesting against the unfair and unsustainable capitalist system which is spelling its own doom. Fast movement propelled by corporate greed and unlimited lust for wealth on the capitalist freeways without regulatory speed-limit is bringing the system to the edge of the precipices. Abandoning moral considerations for amassing wealth by virtual loot and plunder has rendered the system dysfunctional. What is needed to put an end to this dangerous situation is unity among all concerned to bring back moral and ethical values which alone can save the world from imminent peril in economic, social and political terms. Mohamed El-Erian's informed and engaging deliberations are more than worth noting. His powerful arguments for a sea-change in the mindset of those who matter are eminently convincing. It was natural to ask him, as his interviewer indeed did, as to how he got the best out of this unfair and unsustainable system benefitting his prosperous clients. His reply was masterly. He said that 'what is likely to be' may be and is often different from 'what should be'. Managers like him do whatever they have to do in a real world but that does not make the existing situation any more desirable or sustainable. The message is clear: the world financial system as it exists and operates now is unacceptable and cannot endure long. The remedy, he rightly pointed out, did not lie in the hands of investors, financiers, businessmen and their smart managers. They are only operators with business profits enveloping their vision. It is neither their desire nor their responsibility to rectify matters. That responsibility falls squarely on the shoulders of policy makers, in other words, political leaders. Mohammed El-Erian's impressive exposition of the fragility of capitalism in its present phase almost sounds like an echo of classical Marxism which held that the capitalist bourgeois 'cannot see beyond its nose'. Its class-position shapes and determines its behaviour and actions. Even when aware of impending danger it cannot but behave as it does. That is what, one may join El-Erian to say, the leaders of world business and finance are doing. It is no use hoping that they would change course: the leopard cannot change its spots. To steer clear of the sunken riffs and rocks of the ocean of open market economy the political leaders of the ship of the state have to act as competent captains. They must navigate with wisdom, knowledge and skill unfettered by influence and pressure of the rich and mighty. But then as the haunting song goes, 'Money, money, money, sweeter than honey, it's a rich man's world'. The rich are immensely powerful in the economically advance West. They are intertwined with political leaders. They provide financial support to the politicians' election campaigns and party activities. How can their requests and persuasions be ignored by the beneficiaries who make policies? The situation is even more alarming in developing and less developed countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and many others. The nexus between business and politics often works to adopt and follow economic and financial policies which lead to great danger and even titanic disasters. How to severe this vicious interconnection is a trillion-dollar question. The people, deprived, dispossessed and helpless as they are, have initiated action on this front. In Wall Street in New York, in Motijheel in Dhaka at Jantan Mantar in Delhi, they have been rallying to separate business from politics to make the leaders adopt and pursue pro-people policies. They are determined to compel policy-shapers and decision-makers to separate themselves from unethical allies in business, commerce and industry. The enraged people are united in their resolve to force the end of ugly capitalism promoting unfettered greed endangering the society at large. Their mission is to put a stop to unsustainable inequity in economic life, their struggle is against mindless and suicidal corruption. The unprecedented movement has already spread to 951 cities in 82 countries. The sooner the political leaders can understand the meaning of the writing on the wall the better it is for the world of our times. The bell is ringing and political leaders need to be told: Ask not "for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee". ......................................................... Dr. Mizanur Rahman Shelley is a noted thinker and social scientist. He is the founder Chairman, Centre for Development Research, Bangladesh (CDRB), Editor, quarterly "Asian Affairs" and Chief Adviser, City University, Bangladesh. He was member of the erstwhile civil service of Pakistan CSP and a technocrat (non partisan) Minister for Information for the Government of Bangladesh. Also at present Chairman of the Bangladesh Media Commission. He can be reached at: cdrb@agni.com
There is little doubt that the world economy is on the doorsteps of a dark decline. The increasingly integrative nature of global economy makes the prospects alarming even for less developed and developing countries such as Bangladesh. It is imperative for the leaders of these most vulnerable countries wake up and take practical steps to defend their nations from the onslaught of the coming disaster. The storm signals are flashing with increasing intensity. It is necessary while there is still time to understand, analyse and act to respond to the unfolding Doomsday scenario. While many experts, economists and business leaders have sketched different pictures of the impending turmoil, one of the best was portrayed by a non-westerner in an interview in the Hard Talk Programme of the BBC World TV and Radio a few days ago. Mohamed El-Erian, CEO, PIMCO is evidently an outstanding "insider" in the world capital and investment arena. He works as an immensely successfully investment and money-manager in charge of a trillion dollar of other people's money. Among his clients are prosperous corporations and rich individuals, completely satisfied with his deft performance in today's tumultuous global business. His analysis of the woes of the existing capitalist system in the West felt penetrating and spellbinding. Although a remarkably successful member and beneficiary of the system, he skillfully outlined the nature and process of its dangerous decline. What he said in that engaging interview summed up the evolving crises in the heart of the capitalist domain. The commentator observed that "the core problem in Europe is division and divergence" on one hand of the strong economies, such as Germany and France the weak economies at the periphery like Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and even central economy, such as Italy on the other. The division is deepening and widening. Thanks to the joint initiative and efforts of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy a damage control and salvage plan has been drawn up. Twenty six of the Euro zone countries have consented to the signing of a new treaty under which the members would be subject to more rigorous financial discipline. Britain has forcefully opted to stand outside these new arrangements. Division on ideological lines in North America and in particular the USA pose great danger to the societies there. The difference and split here is between the rich and the well-off represented mainly in the conservative right, the Republicans and the less resourceful poorer people represented by 'left' leaning Democrats. The divide is both political and economic with politics as the dominant partner. The schism is becoming deeper and greater. The two sides are fast moving away from each other. The conservative-rich is crying for the reduction and even the end of welfare programmes for the poor and arrest of greater taxation on the better-off. By contrast, continued the Manager for the Rich, the relatively poor and deprived people displaying their rising irritation and great anger at existing inequity and injustice by participating in the ever expanding movement for occupying heartlands of capitalism such as Wall Street in New York. They are correct in protesting against the unfair and unsustainable capitalist system which is spelling its own doom. Fast movement propelled by corporate greed and unlimited lust for wealth on the capitalist freeways without regulatory speed-limit is bringing the system to the edge of the precipices. Abandoning moral considerations for amassing wealth by virtual loot and plunder has rendered the system dysfunctional. What is needed to put an end to this dangerous situation is unity among all concerned to bring back moral and ethical values which alone can save the world from imminent peril in economic, social and political terms. Mohamed El-Erian's informed and engaging deliberations are more than worth noting. His powerful arguments for a sea-change in the mindset of those who matter are eminently convincing. It was natural to ask him, as his interviewer indeed did, as to how he got the best out of this unfair and unsustainable system benefitting his prosperous clients. His reply was masterly. He said that 'what is likely to be' may be and is often different from 'what should be'. Managers like him do whatever they have to do in a real world but that does not make the existing situation any more desirable or sustainable. The message is clear: the world financial system as it exists and operates now is unacceptable and cannot endure long. The remedy, he rightly pointed out, did not lie in the hands of investors, financiers, businessmen and their smart managers. They are only operators with business profits enveloping their vision. It is neither their desire nor their responsibility to rectify matters. That responsibility falls squarely on the shoulders of policy makers, in other words, political leaders. Mohammed El-Erian's impressive exposition of the fragility of capitalism in its present phase almost sounds like an echo of classical Marxism which held that the capitalist bourgeois 'cannot see beyond its nose'. Its class-position shapes and determines its behaviour and actions. Even when aware of impending danger it cannot but behave as it does. That is what, one may join El-Erian to say, the leaders of world business and finance are doing. It is no use hoping that they would change course: the leopard cannot change its spots. To steer clear of the sunken riffs and rocks of the ocean of open market economy the political leaders of the ship of the state have to act as competent captains. They must navigate with wisdom, knowledge and skill unfettered by influence and pressure of the rich and mighty. But then as the haunting song goes, 'Money, money, money, sweeter than honey, it's a rich man's world'. The rich are immensely powerful in the economically advance West. They are intertwined with political leaders. They provide financial support to the politicians' election campaigns and party activities. How can their requests and persuasions be ignored by the beneficiaries who make policies? The situation is even more alarming in developing and less developed countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and many others. The nexus between business and politics often works to adopt and follow economic and financial policies which lead to great danger and even titanic disasters. How to severe this vicious interconnection is a trillion-dollar question. The people, deprived, dispossessed and helpless as they are, have initiated action on this front. In Wall Street in New York, in Motijheel in Dhaka at Jantan Mantar in Delhi, they have been rallying to separate business from politics to make the leaders adopt and pursue pro-people policies. They are determined to compel policy-shapers and decision-makers to separate themselves from unethical allies in business, commerce and industry. The enraged people are united in their resolve to force the end of ugly capitalism promoting unfettered greed endangering the society at large. Their mission is to put a stop to unsustainable inequity in economic life, their struggle is against mindless and suicidal corruption. The unprecedented movement has already spread to 951 cities in 82 countries. The sooner the political leaders can understand the meaning of the writing on the wall the better it is for the world of our times. The bell is ringing and political leaders need to be told: Ask not "for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee". ......................................................... Dr. Mizanur Rahman Shelley is a noted thinker and social scientist. He is the founder Chairman, Centre for Development Research, Bangladesh (CDRB), Editor, quarterly "Asian Affairs" and Chief Adviser, City University, Bangladesh. He was member of the erstwhile civil service of Pakistan CSP and a technocrat (non partisan) Minister for Information for the Government of Bangladesh. Also at present Chairman of the Bangladesh Media Commission. He can be reached at: cdrb@agni.com