The prospect of 280 million Bangladeshis by 2085
Enayet Rasul | Saturday, 12 July 2008
The World Population Day was observed in Bangladesh amid worrying information that this country is falling far short in taking measures to control its population though it is already a highly overpopulated country and has the highest density of population per square mile in the world demographic picture. Thus, the very pressing need for better population control by Bangladesh should be obvious.
The statistics released on the occasion of the World Population Day on Friday, were hardly inspirational. The same predicted that at the current rate of growth at 1.48 per cent as officially claimed, Bangladesh's population would double at 280 million by the year 2085. Annually, some 2.5 million to 3.0 million babies are being born. Therefore, even at the growth rate claimed by the government, the population would be some 180 million as early as 2010. What is more important to note happens to be the official admission that some 19 per cent in the population who are willing to adopt family planning practices, cannot access any facilities to that end.
Besides, the growth rate of the population as estimated by official authorities is considered as a propaganda by private but respected bodies. They say that the rate is actually well over 2 per cent. If the contention of the latter is a correct one, then what awaits this country in the mid term and the long run from the weight of its population, is anybody's guess. The consequences are bound to be just awful socially, economically, politically and environmentally.
The sea of children in the rural areas would make it apparent to any observers at the actual field levels that population control activities are not going well. The rural areas traditionally showed higher growth rate fuelled by adverse social practices, ignorance and other cultural barriers. The urban population even including the poor and migrant ones from rural areas, seem to adopt family planning practices almost automatically as a consequence of the uplifting urbanizing experience. The same do not apply in the tradition-bound rural areas where only determined and regular activities for population control can bring about positive changes in the outlook and practices for planned families. Thus, population control activities are very worryingly not taking a hold where the greatest numbers of the potentially reproductive population are located.
The official population programmes in the village areas are seen to be shot through with corruption, inefficiency, lethargy and all other ills. Family planning visitors under the programme hardly do their job; they may make some casual visits at long intervals without doing their work with motivation and sincerity. Contraceptives supplied to them for distributing regularly in rural homes free of costs or at nominal costs, are either not distributed, thus, or offered for sale only at market prices. Understandably, this discourages their potential users. Voluntary sterilization programmes are very shabbily conducted. In most cases, there are no publicities of the same and people remain unaware of what things are on offer for adopting sterility or permanent birth control. The cash awards for conducting vasectomy on men and women are found misappropriated in many cases by the authorities themselves while on paper they maintain fake records of persons who were operated as well as their getting of the awards.
Clearly, the officially run population control programme needs to be deep cleansed against graft, sloth and lack of zeal on the part of those who conduct it. The present interim government is doing good work in many areas . It can make a very big contribution towards the longer term economic security of the country by revamping the official population control programmes.
Land space and natural resources respectively would not be growing or growing equally as fast as the population. How then to take care of such a vast population in about only 55,000 square miles of territory with its limited resources ? This is indeed posing as a very big question . Bangladesh is already the seventh biggest country in the world in terms of population. But other countries with big population such as USA or Brazil have almost continent size territories and natural resources to take care of their current population whereas Bangladesh is burdened with an uniquely vast population with this population to turn immensely bigger in the future having very little physical space to accommodate it. For instance, the population of the USA is some 294 million. Bangladesh has a population of 140 million which is roughly the size of half of the population of the USA. But Bangladesh, in contrast, has about only one-fiftieth of USA's land space for its huge population and therein lies the danger of its continuing growth at the current rate.
The population growth rate in Bangladesh will not be brought down to zero level like in the Scandinavian countries. There would be encountered strong social and cultural barriers against such initiatives. But it can be tried to effectively bring it well below one per cent in a decade from now if the same goal is earnestly pursued. This decrease in growth will mean a manageable population by the middle of the present century.
Bangladesh is already too overpopulated by any assessment or definition. Already, the existing size of the population and its growth have created crisis like situations in sectors of housing, employment, health, etc. The crises are going to be deeper in the near future and could shatter whatever socio-political and economic stability the country has at present. Clearly, population growth is building up into a worst case scenario of all round insecurities for Bangladesh. But where are the decisive actions or plans of its leaders that they intend to protect the country from the population bomb that is ticking away ?
Bangladesh faces great insecurity from environmental degradation . The size of the population and its growth rate pose a serious threat to its environment because humans everywhere are the worst polluters. Cutting down of trees, destroying natural eco systems, polluting activities affecting land, air and water, are seen more in a densely populated country and not in a country where population size is reasonable compared to natural endowments.
The statistics released on the occasion of the World Population Day on Friday, were hardly inspirational. The same predicted that at the current rate of growth at 1.48 per cent as officially claimed, Bangladesh's population would double at 280 million by the year 2085. Annually, some 2.5 million to 3.0 million babies are being born. Therefore, even at the growth rate claimed by the government, the population would be some 180 million as early as 2010. What is more important to note happens to be the official admission that some 19 per cent in the population who are willing to adopt family planning practices, cannot access any facilities to that end.
Besides, the growth rate of the population as estimated by official authorities is considered as a propaganda by private but respected bodies. They say that the rate is actually well over 2 per cent. If the contention of the latter is a correct one, then what awaits this country in the mid term and the long run from the weight of its population, is anybody's guess. The consequences are bound to be just awful socially, economically, politically and environmentally.
The sea of children in the rural areas would make it apparent to any observers at the actual field levels that population control activities are not going well. The rural areas traditionally showed higher growth rate fuelled by adverse social practices, ignorance and other cultural barriers. The urban population even including the poor and migrant ones from rural areas, seem to adopt family planning practices almost automatically as a consequence of the uplifting urbanizing experience. The same do not apply in the tradition-bound rural areas where only determined and regular activities for population control can bring about positive changes in the outlook and practices for planned families. Thus, population control activities are very worryingly not taking a hold where the greatest numbers of the potentially reproductive population are located.
The official population programmes in the village areas are seen to be shot through with corruption, inefficiency, lethargy and all other ills. Family planning visitors under the programme hardly do their job; they may make some casual visits at long intervals without doing their work with motivation and sincerity. Contraceptives supplied to them for distributing regularly in rural homes free of costs or at nominal costs, are either not distributed, thus, or offered for sale only at market prices. Understandably, this discourages their potential users. Voluntary sterilization programmes are very shabbily conducted. In most cases, there are no publicities of the same and people remain unaware of what things are on offer for adopting sterility or permanent birth control. The cash awards for conducting vasectomy on men and women are found misappropriated in many cases by the authorities themselves while on paper they maintain fake records of persons who were operated as well as their getting of the awards.
Clearly, the officially run population control programme needs to be deep cleansed against graft, sloth and lack of zeal on the part of those who conduct it. The present interim government is doing good work in many areas . It can make a very big contribution towards the longer term economic security of the country by revamping the official population control programmes.
Land space and natural resources respectively would not be growing or growing equally as fast as the population. How then to take care of such a vast population in about only 55,000 square miles of territory with its limited resources ? This is indeed posing as a very big question . Bangladesh is already the seventh biggest country in the world in terms of population. But other countries with big population such as USA or Brazil have almost continent size territories and natural resources to take care of their current population whereas Bangladesh is burdened with an uniquely vast population with this population to turn immensely bigger in the future having very little physical space to accommodate it. For instance, the population of the USA is some 294 million. Bangladesh has a population of 140 million which is roughly the size of half of the population of the USA. But Bangladesh, in contrast, has about only one-fiftieth of USA's land space for its huge population and therein lies the danger of its continuing growth at the current rate.
The population growth rate in Bangladesh will not be brought down to zero level like in the Scandinavian countries. There would be encountered strong social and cultural barriers against such initiatives. But it can be tried to effectively bring it well below one per cent in a decade from now if the same goal is earnestly pursued. This decrease in growth will mean a manageable population by the middle of the present century.
Bangladesh is already too overpopulated by any assessment or definition. Already, the existing size of the population and its growth have created crisis like situations in sectors of housing, employment, health, etc. The crises are going to be deeper in the near future and could shatter whatever socio-political and economic stability the country has at present. Clearly, population growth is building up into a worst case scenario of all round insecurities for Bangladesh. But where are the decisive actions or plans of its leaders that they intend to protect the country from the population bomb that is ticking away ?
Bangladesh faces great insecurity from environmental degradation . The size of the population and its growth rate pose a serious threat to its environment because humans everywhere are the worst polluters. Cutting down of trees, destroying natural eco systems, polluting activities affecting land, air and water, are seen more in a densely populated country and not in a country where population size is reasonable compared to natural endowments.