The returning Exodus
Mahmudur Rahman | Friday, 13 March 2009
It has begun. Albeit in a trickle, the traffic of Bangladeshi labourers is on the return. One would hope that this will not be an exodus but that may be fanciful thinking. Malaysia has announced that it will be seeking to reduce the numbers of foreign workers and already cancelled visas for some 50,000 Bangladeshi workers. Japanese business, renowned for their values of holding on to employees, has just begun to trim temporary workers from the payroll. And all this comes within days of the Bangladesh Association of International Recruiting Agents (BAIRA) President suggesting that overseas employment and remittances would not be affected!
National Board of Revenue (NBR) Chairman Abdul Majeed has already hinted at major structural reforms to the budget for the next fiscal and the Finance Minister has frankly admitted that the relative 'peace' expected in the financial system for the rest of this fiscal is over.
Such events were not unexpected. Indeed they were inevitable. There were the optimists who thought Bangladesh's lack of integration with the global economy would insulate the economy. The much vaunted 'safe' resource of remittance is no longer secure.
And so the expatriate Bangladeshis who throng the square to the side of Mustapha shopping complex in Singapore no longer congregate happily after a day's work. They now share their fears and apprehensions as the economic bubble starts to burst.
Redundancies and layoffs are creating a situation where many of these unfortunate persons, having paid a fortune to get to Singapore now find themselves short of jobs and even shorter of money to pay back loans. In the centre of Dubai a taxi driver bemoans how it is no longer the haven of earning it used to be.
In the United Kingdom racism has always simmered, surfacing at times of economic duress such as the present day. In the 1960s and 70s large numbers of Bengalis went to the UK in search of jobs that the local population frowned upon. In these days of crunch, that doesn't hold good anymore and the expatriates are viewed with cynicism and mistrust. Even specialists who migrated under the HSMP are finding it difficult to retain jobs so much so that many are actively considering returning to their own countries.
There have been several polite and discrete inquiries from Bangladeshis living in the US as to prospective investment opportunities back home. Times are difficult and they are not expected to be getting any better too soon. This in itself could cause a greater headache for the government unless they are adequately prepared for a huge exodus.
The implications are significant. On one hand remittances, the heart of the economy is likely to go down even as the government strives to seek more jobs abroad for the workforce. On the other, returning expatriates are going to need jobs, opportunities for investment and a whole raft of daily essentials for resettlement that, strangely enough can spur business itself.
This is where the government can be proactive. A seminar for expatriates divided into two sections- investors and prospective employees may be the order of the day. Special policies for urgently required industries, especially in the backward areas of the country could be thought of to attract investment and employment. Obviously necessary infrastructural support needs to be provided but maybe even that could be a consideration to put before the expatriates. India has been successful in wooing expatriates and there is no reason why Bangladesh should be any different. The immediate foreseeable future is more of self-reliance both in terms of input and output. The sooner a base is created for this, the sooner the benefits will accrue. Waiting for the meltdown to sort itself out without robust and aggressive local initiatives may be just wishful thinking.
Mahmudur Rahman is a former Head of Corporate and Regulatory Affairs, BAT Bangladesh and former CEO of Bangladesh Cricket Board. He can be reached at mahmudrahman@gmail.com.
National Board of Revenue (NBR) Chairman Abdul Majeed has already hinted at major structural reforms to the budget for the next fiscal and the Finance Minister has frankly admitted that the relative 'peace' expected in the financial system for the rest of this fiscal is over.
Such events were not unexpected. Indeed they were inevitable. There were the optimists who thought Bangladesh's lack of integration with the global economy would insulate the economy. The much vaunted 'safe' resource of remittance is no longer secure.
And so the expatriate Bangladeshis who throng the square to the side of Mustapha shopping complex in Singapore no longer congregate happily after a day's work. They now share their fears and apprehensions as the economic bubble starts to burst.
Redundancies and layoffs are creating a situation where many of these unfortunate persons, having paid a fortune to get to Singapore now find themselves short of jobs and even shorter of money to pay back loans. In the centre of Dubai a taxi driver bemoans how it is no longer the haven of earning it used to be.
In the United Kingdom racism has always simmered, surfacing at times of economic duress such as the present day. In the 1960s and 70s large numbers of Bengalis went to the UK in search of jobs that the local population frowned upon. In these days of crunch, that doesn't hold good anymore and the expatriates are viewed with cynicism and mistrust. Even specialists who migrated under the HSMP are finding it difficult to retain jobs so much so that many are actively considering returning to their own countries.
There have been several polite and discrete inquiries from Bangladeshis living in the US as to prospective investment opportunities back home. Times are difficult and they are not expected to be getting any better too soon. This in itself could cause a greater headache for the government unless they are adequately prepared for a huge exodus.
The implications are significant. On one hand remittances, the heart of the economy is likely to go down even as the government strives to seek more jobs abroad for the workforce. On the other, returning expatriates are going to need jobs, opportunities for investment and a whole raft of daily essentials for resettlement that, strangely enough can spur business itself.
This is where the government can be proactive. A seminar for expatriates divided into two sections- investors and prospective employees may be the order of the day. Special policies for urgently required industries, especially in the backward areas of the country could be thought of to attract investment and employment. Obviously necessary infrastructural support needs to be provided but maybe even that could be a consideration to put before the expatriates. India has been successful in wooing expatriates and there is no reason why Bangladesh should be any different. The immediate foreseeable future is more of self-reliance both in terms of input and output. The sooner a base is created for this, the sooner the benefits will accrue. Waiting for the meltdown to sort itself out without robust and aggressive local initiatives may be just wishful thinking.
Mahmudur Rahman is a former Head of Corporate and Regulatory Affairs, BAT Bangladesh and former CEO of Bangladesh Cricket Board. He can be reached at mahmudrahman@gmail.com.