The spring of our hope

By all counts, this, indeed, is "the beginning of 'the winter' of our discontent." Politics in Bangladesh has never been simple, smooth and easy. Nevertheless, since the resurrection of parliamentary democracy in the country during the early 1990s, the political arena has become more convoluted and complicated than ever before. A sort of two-party system emerged weakly during the last two decades. It has, however, failed to develop as a truly democratic order as the two major parties could not foster healthy competition between them. Lack of mutual trust led to the introduction of the non-Party Caretaker Government during 1996. Under a new set of circumstances the present ruling party abolished the Caretaker system by effecting the 15th Amendment to the Constitution. Most of the troubles in our political sphere in recent times issued from this action.
The opposition BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) and its allies are determined to fight national elections only under a non-party government, call it Caretaker or interim. The ruling party, the Awami League, is apparently resolute in its stand to have the elections under an interim government formed by itself.
The dispute intensified in late October and early November. Even as the ruling party started speaking of an all-party interim government, the BNP sticking to its demand held two spells of 60-hour hartals from 26 October 26 and  November 04 respectively. Then came the 72-hour hartal from 10th November 10 turned into a 84-hour affair. This was because of the sudden step of the government on November 08 and 09 to arrest five top leaders of the BNP. These developments seem to dim the prospect of dialogue between the two parties for a peaceful settlement of the issue.
The Opposition call for shutdown of the country has led to a situation of uncertainty and grave apprehension worsened by violence. The picketers and the police clash frequently. Sporadic attacks led to damage and destruction of vehicles and public properties. Resistance by ruling party and its associate organisations make matters worse still.
It appears that the ruling Awami League and its allies are bent upon following the hard line or so it seems now. It seems that they are prepared to go it alone and hold national elections by January 2014. Although they are saying that they would like "democratic elections" to be inclusive, they may not be averse to elections without the BNP, if they do not come under the terms given.
There is, however, a big "If". This scenario may unfurl if peace and tranquility, however uneasy, can be forced on the country. This would also mean that the opposition forces would not be able to mobilise enough active protest nation-wide. If they do not so succeed they would only sulk in a lonely corner like a forgotten child. But the question is: will this be so in reality?
There are two reasons why this scenario may not be realised so easily. The first one is economic, though economic activities may continue and development of a sort have been and can be achieved even in war. It is doubtful whether this will be the case in Bangladesh. The country is still predominantly poor and the economy, though promising, is basically fragile.
It can be destabilised by even minor disturbances if they continue too long. Already investment, both foreign and domestic, has decreased to a low level. Unemployment has intensified as investment becomes shy and business and industry are unable to operate at full swing. Industries, including apparel and the real estate, are in increasing trouble.
Many in these sectors are unable to cope up with demands of creditor banks and financial institutions. On the contrary, banks and financial institutions themselves overflow with access liquidity of some TK 700 billion (70,000 crore) as there are only a few takers for bank advances. The wintery chill in the financial sector is only a reflection of the restless and shaky real sectors. These sectors are receiving body blows from relentless political tumult.
The disturbed economy may yet pose the greatest challenge for an election without political settlement. Organised business and trade bodies are already active in pursuing top political leaders to dissolve their conflict by peaceful negotiation. Nevertheless, their efforts like those of the civil society, have so far failed to yield positive results. Perhaps the sluggish flow of business and industry will compel the politicians to do the reasonable thing.
The second obstacle may be the international evaluation and disapproval of one-sided elections, debates about national independence and sovereignty not withstanding. This is a global village. In today's world more than at any time before, no nation is an island unto itself. Regional and global powers and their views and stands matter. They are relevant even though in an indirect way to our national politics, including elections.
In these days of almost universal 'Democracy' even war-ravaged countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria are expected to play the democratic game according to rules. Bangladesh, vaunting its fledgling parliamentary democracy, is even under greater constrains to do as the 'guardians' want.
The internal political and economic compulsions, along with external constrains, may set the limits to authoritarian behaviour of an elected government in democracy. May be those will be the factors that will ensure the transition of our nation from the "winter of discontent" to the "Spring of Hope".   
Dr. Mizanur Rahman Shelley, founder Chairman of Centre for Development Research, Bangladesh (CDRB) and Editor quarterly "ASIAN AFFAIRS", was a former
teacher of political science of Dhaka University
and former member of the erstwhile Civil Service
of Pakistan (CSP) and former non-partisan technocrat Cabinet Minister of Bangladesh.
 [email protected]