The worse is not unlikely

THE current flood, which has followed a report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) about the shaping of a disruptive La Nina climate pattern in the Pacific, may not be just a usual passing phenomenon. It may worsen, prolong and recur. An engineer of the Flood Forecasting Centre of the Water Development Board said last Saturday that the flood situation might worsen in the subsequent three days. It meant that the situation would start improving thereafter. Meanwhile, all the rivers in the north, northeastern and middle parts of the country have swelled further inundating new areas and causing immense sufferings to more than a million people. The unusual inundation has led to massive damage of crops. Now reports say, excessive rains have flooded a vast area of Nepal. Heavy flood at its source means that the Ganges would be continually on spate raising the water level of its lower riparian stream, the Padma in this country. Obviously, the flood situation here is going to worsen further and remain so for pretty long.
According to the WMO report, the La Nina climate pattern, marked by a combination of winds over the Pacific Ocean and a temperature drop of the sea-bed of Latin America, sets in hurricanes in the Atlantic region and strong monsoons in Asia. Parts of China have been already heavily flooded with heavy rains. So has Nepal. But the monsoon season is yet far from over. According to the WMO forecasts, the current rainy season might drag on until mid September under the influence of La Nina. If the Padma and the Brahmaputra happen to swell unusually with more rains upstream in China, Nepal and India, a major flood of long duration in this country is almost inevitable.
The shaping La Nina weather pattern, like its twin EL Nino, impacts on global weather on a planetary scale. Further heavy rains in this country should, therefore, be apprehended while planning preparatory measures to deal with an extreme flood situation. Being mindful that disruption of communication in some areas might create temporary scarcity of foodstuff at various locations, the government may check with the Deputy Commissioners about the food stock positions in the districts. Concurrently, the extent of damage of standing crops may be assessed to prepare for post-flood rehabilitation and also to make a realistic estimate whether additional food grain procurement from abroad would be needed. Understandably, the prices of some essentials, particularly vegetables, would record spirals during this flood. There is no great need for concern as an increase in natural supply of fishes now may compensate for the scarcity of vegetables.
The opening of a flood-monitoring cell in the Chief Adviser's office already indicates that the government is alert about the possible consequences of the aggravating flood situation. But its opening would be meaningful only if relief efforts by all relevant agencies, particularly the Ministry of Relief, the Red Crescent, the Directorates General of Health and Disaster Management and the various districts administrations can be well coordinated by it to mitigate the sufferings of the affected. Distribution of water purification tablets in the flood-affected areas along with other relief materials at this time has already become necessary. The worst affected ought to be accommodated in proper shelters to preempt the outbreak of intestinal diseases. There would be need for more and more water purification tablets for distribution in the affected areas with flood situation turning still worse. Its stock and availability with health officials in the vulnerable districts should be ensured.