Time to go for strategic planning on energy
Syed Fattahul Alim | Wednesday, 23 July 2008
There is a hundred and one points to tell the modern from the pre-modern society. But of all the points of difference, subtle or obvious, there is one that makes the difference between the two sharper and unambiguous. Needless to say, it is the quantity and quality of energy use that makes the difference. >From this point of view, one can say that the degree of development of a nation is directly proportional to the amount of energy it uses.
Energy being such an important issue, every modern nation in the world has a policy on its energy use. If Bangladesh is to claim itself to be a modern society, it must also have one. But to all intents and purposes, it hardly has one. For had it one, it would not be in such a precarious situation at a time when the whole world is reeling from the rocketing energy prices. Apart from the fuel oil it imports from abroad, Bangladesh depends on its own reserve of gas. We have been using gas as a fuel to cook our foods as well as to generate electricity from the power plants.
The bad news is our gas reserve is also depleting very fast. But what is worse part of the news is that the power plants of the country, 90 per cent of which run on gas, are facing acute shortage of gas supply at the moment. So, this is a double-jeopardy. Since gas powers the electricity generation plants, which in turn powers the industries, it is a veritable vicious circle the nation has fallen in. How is the government planning to get over the present crisis?
The government has meanwhile thinking of shutting down power plants that are unable to efficiently use energy. The energy ministry is learnt to have listed some nine power units that are energy-inefficient for closing them down. It is even in favour of diverting the gas from the inefficient power units to those that are running efficiently. However, the power division has not fully agreed with this proposition fearing that it may further aggravate the power supply situation. It has, however, agreed to shut down four such units at Shahajibazar and Shikalbaha.
According to an estimate, the country is now facing gas shortage of 250 mmcfd and power shortage of 1500 MW. Meanwhile, the acute gas shortage has contributed to the deficit of between 500-600 MW of power everyday.
The gas shortage has hit the industries hard. According to reports, some 600 factories in Chittagong have gone out of operation. And during the last two years, no new gas connection was given in the Chittagong Zone. But there is also another side of the problem arising from the gas shortage. It is the low pressure of the gas, which is affecting the industries in Narayanganj, Narshingdi, Shyampur, Demra, Savar, Joydevpur and Tongi seriously.
The caretaker government's move to install rental power plants as a means to resolve the ongoing power crisis in the country to some extent has also come up against the hurdle of gas supply shortage. As a result, so far, it has been able only to install six rental power plants with a total capacity of 250 MW. If the recent move of the Power Development Board (PDB) and the Petrobangla to cut gas supply to the inefficient power units is implemented, the gas thus saved could well be diverted to the rental power plants.
In fact, there are (about 15) power plants under PDB that need complete overhauling or replacement because they are too old to function properly. Unfortunately, though the crisis in the gas and power sectors has come to a head, there is no magic solution to get over the crisis overnight. For the nature of the problem is such that there is no quick fix solution to it as it takes a lot of time even if one wants to install and then to get power supply from a new power station.
The successive governments lacked the necessary vision to save against the rainy day in the energy sector. But it would be of little use to blame the past. The other day the special assistant to the Chief Adviser Professor M. Tamim urged the political parties to reach a consensus to go for a strategic planning for the energy sector to ensure people's future energy security.
Professor Tamim, who was speaking at a seminar, however, sounded a bit unhappy over the opposition from different quarters on the energy issue. True, the common people have little understanding of such a highly technical issue like energy. And neither do the politicians and nor even general bureaucrats are supposed to comprehend the issue with all its complexities. And since energy is a subject of global power game, a least developed country like Bangladesh cannot also expect to remain beyond the influence of this power play.
Moreover, since Bangladesh lacks the capital and to some extent the know-how and technology to exploit the gas and coal reserves under its soil, it has to walk a very slippery ground so far as the extraction of those underground resources is concerned. It is just against this backdrop that professor Tamim has called for a consensus over the issue among the politicians, who are the ones to run the country once the power is handed over to the elected government.
Energy security is a very serious issue. And it all depends on its correct planning. Bangladesh has so far been lucky in the sense that it had at least some deposit of fossil energy to fall back upon so far. There are many other countries that are not as lucky as Bangladesh, because Mother Nature is not so kind with them. But are they not surviving also? So, one need not give up all hopes in the face of the bleak scenario of our energy future. In fact, the entire world including the most advanced ones is now facing the energy crunch.
Iraq (which holds a big reserve of oil) is short of its capacity to continue with its oil exports in full swing due to the war. The face off of America, Israel and Europe with Iran over the latter's nuclear programme has also contributed to the present global energy crisis significantly.
Because, Iran is also a big exporter of fuel oil. But even if peace returns on earth thereby bringing the fuel oil price down to a tolerable level, total peace on the energy front in its old form will never come. For in the near future, until a singular energy source like fossil fuel is obtained, the world will have to make do with a mix of different kinds of renewable and non-renewable sources of energy. And different countries will have to adopt their own strategic planning on energy in a unique fashion depending on the availability of different forms of energy in their respective contexts. In a similar fashion, Bangladesh will also have to make its own strategic planning for energy.
With gas supply dwindling and with a forecast of crunch in 2011, Bangladesh will have to depend on coal and a mix of some forms of renewable energy in the days ahead. But coal (with a reserve of about 3 billion ton), too, will take about another four years before it can be used to generate electricity. Of the many renewable sources, Bangladesh has an abundance of solar and wind power. Biogas from municipal wastes and other sources can also be an element of the future energy mix unique for Bangladesh.
In short, whatever is in store for us in the future on the energy front, we will have to have a concrete strategy for that. And the beginning of that planning must begin from now. Since the caretaker government is now in office it will have to take charge now on the issue without waiting for the future political government to do the job. And they will do their bit when in office in the future. That is because the strategic planning on energy will evolve over time by adapting itself to the exigencies of the time.
Energy being such an important issue, every modern nation in the world has a policy on its energy use. If Bangladesh is to claim itself to be a modern society, it must also have one. But to all intents and purposes, it hardly has one. For had it one, it would not be in such a precarious situation at a time when the whole world is reeling from the rocketing energy prices. Apart from the fuel oil it imports from abroad, Bangladesh depends on its own reserve of gas. We have been using gas as a fuel to cook our foods as well as to generate electricity from the power plants.
The bad news is our gas reserve is also depleting very fast. But what is worse part of the news is that the power plants of the country, 90 per cent of which run on gas, are facing acute shortage of gas supply at the moment. So, this is a double-jeopardy. Since gas powers the electricity generation plants, which in turn powers the industries, it is a veritable vicious circle the nation has fallen in. How is the government planning to get over the present crisis?
The government has meanwhile thinking of shutting down power plants that are unable to efficiently use energy. The energy ministry is learnt to have listed some nine power units that are energy-inefficient for closing them down. It is even in favour of diverting the gas from the inefficient power units to those that are running efficiently. However, the power division has not fully agreed with this proposition fearing that it may further aggravate the power supply situation. It has, however, agreed to shut down four such units at Shahajibazar and Shikalbaha.
According to an estimate, the country is now facing gas shortage of 250 mmcfd and power shortage of 1500 MW. Meanwhile, the acute gas shortage has contributed to the deficit of between 500-600 MW of power everyday.
The gas shortage has hit the industries hard. According to reports, some 600 factories in Chittagong have gone out of operation. And during the last two years, no new gas connection was given in the Chittagong Zone. But there is also another side of the problem arising from the gas shortage. It is the low pressure of the gas, which is affecting the industries in Narayanganj, Narshingdi, Shyampur, Demra, Savar, Joydevpur and Tongi seriously.
The caretaker government's move to install rental power plants as a means to resolve the ongoing power crisis in the country to some extent has also come up against the hurdle of gas supply shortage. As a result, so far, it has been able only to install six rental power plants with a total capacity of 250 MW. If the recent move of the Power Development Board (PDB) and the Petrobangla to cut gas supply to the inefficient power units is implemented, the gas thus saved could well be diverted to the rental power plants.
In fact, there are (about 15) power plants under PDB that need complete overhauling or replacement because they are too old to function properly. Unfortunately, though the crisis in the gas and power sectors has come to a head, there is no magic solution to get over the crisis overnight. For the nature of the problem is such that there is no quick fix solution to it as it takes a lot of time even if one wants to install and then to get power supply from a new power station.
The successive governments lacked the necessary vision to save against the rainy day in the energy sector. But it would be of little use to blame the past. The other day the special assistant to the Chief Adviser Professor M. Tamim urged the political parties to reach a consensus to go for a strategic planning for the energy sector to ensure people's future energy security.
Professor Tamim, who was speaking at a seminar, however, sounded a bit unhappy over the opposition from different quarters on the energy issue. True, the common people have little understanding of such a highly technical issue like energy. And neither do the politicians and nor even general bureaucrats are supposed to comprehend the issue with all its complexities. And since energy is a subject of global power game, a least developed country like Bangladesh cannot also expect to remain beyond the influence of this power play.
Moreover, since Bangladesh lacks the capital and to some extent the know-how and technology to exploit the gas and coal reserves under its soil, it has to walk a very slippery ground so far as the extraction of those underground resources is concerned. It is just against this backdrop that professor Tamim has called for a consensus over the issue among the politicians, who are the ones to run the country once the power is handed over to the elected government.
Energy security is a very serious issue. And it all depends on its correct planning. Bangladesh has so far been lucky in the sense that it had at least some deposit of fossil energy to fall back upon so far. There are many other countries that are not as lucky as Bangladesh, because Mother Nature is not so kind with them. But are they not surviving also? So, one need not give up all hopes in the face of the bleak scenario of our energy future. In fact, the entire world including the most advanced ones is now facing the energy crunch.
Iraq (which holds a big reserve of oil) is short of its capacity to continue with its oil exports in full swing due to the war. The face off of America, Israel and Europe with Iran over the latter's nuclear programme has also contributed to the present global energy crisis significantly.
Because, Iran is also a big exporter of fuel oil. But even if peace returns on earth thereby bringing the fuel oil price down to a tolerable level, total peace on the energy front in its old form will never come. For in the near future, until a singular energy source like fossil fuel is obtained, the world will have to make do with a mix of different kinds of renewable and non-renewable sources of energy. And different countries will have to adopt their own strategic planning on energy in a unique fashion depending on the availability of different forms of energy in their respective contexts. In a similar fashion, Bangladesh will also have to make its own strategic planning for energy.
With gas supply dwindling and with a forecast of crunch in 2011, Bangladesh will have to depend on coal and a mix of some forms of renewable energy in the days ahead. But coal (with a reserve of about 3 billion ton), too, will take about another four years before it can be used to generate electricity. Of the many renewable sources, Bangladesh has an abundance of solar and wind power. Biogas from municipal wastes and other sources can also be an element of the future energy mix unique for Bangladesh.
In short, whatever is in store for us in the future on the energy front, we will have to have a concrete strategy for that. And the beginning of that planning must begin from now. Since the caretaker government is now in office it will have to take charge now on the issue without waiting for the future political government to do the job. And they will do their bit when in office in the future. That is because the strategic planning on energy will evolve over time by adapting itself to the exigencies of the time.