Tk 9.38t big budget comes tomorrow

A litmus test comes for a BNP regime after 19 years as the new government prepares to present tomorrow a hugely deficit budget after return to power through the much-hyped February-12th polls.
A BNP-led government had last presented its budget for the nation for the fiscal year 2006-07 under then finance minister M. Saifur Rahman.
Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is expected to place his maiden budget for FY2026-27 in parliament tomorrow, against the backdrop of political upheavals and economic disruptions.
The proposed budget size has been set approximately at Tk 9.38 trillion with a projected deficit of Tk 2.43 trillion, according to some officials at the finance division.
To finance the deficit, the government pins hope on mobilising Tk 1.27 trillion, or about 52 per cent of the gap, from domestic sources, mostly from banking sources. The remaining Tk 1.16 trillion, or around 48 per cent, is expected to come from foreign loans and grants.
Of the domestic financing target, Tk 1.12 trillion is likely to be borrowed from the banking system while Tk 150 billion will be raised through savings certificates and other sources.
The budget is expected to be presented under the theme 'Economic Democratisation and Deregulation: Bangladesh's Journey towards a Trillion-Dollar Economy'.
The proposed budget will be the first full-fledged fiscal plan of the BNP-led administration and is expected to be presented in the presence of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and other MPs-mostly new to the parliamentary business and budget-making.
The government has set GDP-growth target at 6.5 per cent for FY2026-27 and aims to bring inflation down to 7.5 per cent.
However, inflation remained elevated at 9.42 per cent in May, according to the latest data from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).
Total revenue mobilisation which has an ambitious target of Tk 6.95 trillion is also anticipated to remain a major concern.
Data from the National Board of Revenue (NBR) show that the revenue shortfall reached Tk 1.045 trillion during the first 10 months of FY2025-26.
Against a revised target of Tk 4.31 trillion, revenue collection stood at Tk 3.27 trillion through April, highlighting the difficulty of achieving fiscal targets "amid a challenging economic environment", economists predict.
They say curbing inflation, strengthening revenue collection and reducing reliance on bank borrowing will be among the government's key economic priorities in the coming fiscal year.
"The budget will be closely watched for signals on whether the government intends to continue its reform agenda or not," says Dr Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow of the CPD.
Private investment, which believed to remain at the bottom, could gain momentum if the budget includes measures to stimulate investment activity, Dr Rahman said recently.

jasimharoon@yahoo.com