\\\'To hope for the best and to plan for the best\\\'

The media in the recent past has highlighted several reports not only about observations made by studies carried out by important international institutions but also drawn attention of the readers to existing challenges within the Bangladesh economic paradigm. In a manner of speaking hope has been reiterated about our economic evolution but at the same time suggestions given as to how our economy needs to move forward. In this context, practical measures have been underlined related to this dynamics.
The United Kingdom government through its DFID and the US Agency for International Development (USAID) have produced a study that has surveyed the investment climate in Bangladesh. This Inclusive Growth Diagnostic Study has focussed on investment issues that impact most heavily on inclusive economic growth. This Study was apparently undertaken to gain a detailed, shared understanding of the challenges facing investment in Bangladesh. This effort, according to DFID needs to be seen against the common perspective related to work being done by the development community in Bangladesh. It is understood that the government as well as the private sector assisted in the effort to understand better the issues associated with inclusive economic growth in this country. Conclusions of the Study were based on existing data drawn from different sources together with detailed research into the issues that potential investors take into account when making investment decisions.
The Study acknowledged that Bangladesh had made remarkable progress over the past two decades, lifting millions out of the poverty trap and sustaining expanding levels of economic growth. It has also been recognized that these achievements have been realized despite major internal and external challenges, including global economic downturns, natural disasters and periods of political uncertainty. The Study, in this regard has agreed that expanding levels of economic growth has led to a rise in Bangladesh's gross national income (GNI), at 2005 purchasing power parity (PPP) and that Bangladesh's GNI per capita had increased by 79 per cent from US Dollar 985 in 2000 to US Dollar 1,768 in 2010.
The Study, according to analysts has provided an opportunity for additional collaboration between the donor community and the government of Bangladesh as it develops its economic policies and priorities for the next Five Year Plan. It has been revealed that this Study has identified the importance of addressing energy availability and protecting property rights. The Study has not referred to education as a major investment issue but has noted the importance of education policies- particularly in the sector of tertiary and technical education- for better exploitation of our human resources potential. In addition, the Study has also pointed out some other challenges faced by investors while taking their decision on investment in Bangladesh (particularly in the textile and garment sector) - labour skills and access to finance.  The Report has also highlighted the constraints facing women entrepreneurs and some social norms that restrict opportunities.
Another Report published by the World Bank (WB) has revealed that this important institution now believes that there can be a possible growth of Bangladesh's GDP in the current fiscal year at 6.2 per cent. While doing so, the Bank appears to have taken note of the increase in domestic consumption and internal trade as reflected in the economic activity over the last three months that included the two Eid festivals. This is indeed encouraging. This projection was published in its latest 'Bangladesh Development Update'. Commenting on this Report, the World Bank lead economist Zahid Hussain has indicated that Bangladesh is moving towards its development goals, but at a comparatively slow pace.
It has also been mentioned that there have been evident developments in the electricity and gas sectors but there has been comparatively poorer growth in the completion of tasks in the communication sector. Attention has been drawn to the fact that it takes longer to go to Chittagong now than it did one year ago. In this regard the government's attention has been drawn to the need to complete sooner than later the key development projects like the - Dhaka-Chittagong and Dhaka-Mymensingh highways, double tracking of Dhaka-Chittagong railway, the Padma Bridge and the Dhaka Metro rail. Emphasis has also been attached to the need to complete two more power plants based on the Bibiyana gas field.   The Report also recommended finishing the awarding of the proposed Economic Zones under the Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (BEPZA).
The Report also emphasizes on the need to improve workplace compliance with expected international standards. The Report has noted the government's progress in improving worker rights and safety consistent with the EU Sustainability Compact and the US Action Plan. It has however also stated that "there is no place for complacency" and that sustainable compliance within the RMG industry warrants constant monitoring and continued action by the stakeholders. It has also been re-affirmed that the government needs to hasten the implementation process of the amendments made in the labour law that include an appropriate monitoring mechanism to ensure proper enforcement.
Comments made about the RMG sector are significant given that in FY 14, garments exports accounted for 81.2 per cent of Bangladesh's total export, increasing from 79.6 per cent of FY 13. Garment exports were 14.1 per cent of the GDP in FY14 with total employment in this sector exceeding 4 million. The growth in this sector has partly been because of 19.1 per cent increase in volume in export of knitwear products. The signs for FY15, till now has however not been very optimistic.  
 In this context, it has been hinted that if we can get our act together, then there is no reason why Bangladesh could not achieve a sustained GDP growth rate of 8.0 per cent within the next five years and that this would definitely help us achieve our desired goal of Middle Income Status. However, attainment of the government-targeted 7.3 per cent economic growth for the current fiscal was deemed as unlikely unless an 'investment boom' takes place. It was pointed out that at this time, according to the World Bank, consumer confidence was gaining in Bangladesh but business confidence was yet to pick up substantially.
The Report also underlined the possibility that agricultural growth in Bangladesh might decline to 2.0 per cent in the current fiscal from 3.3 per cent achieved during the last fiscal. It was however outlined that industrial growth might rise to 9.5 per cent from 8.4 per cent. Similarly, hope was expressed that growth will be registered in the Services sector and that it might reach 6.1 per cent compared to 5.8 per cent achieved in the last fiscal. One can only state that, from the above, the glass is being considered as being more than half-full.  
The relevant authorities in the government, while taking note of the assumptions expressed in the above Reports have indicated that, despite existing constraints, efforts will be made by them to double exports to over US Dollar 50 billion by 2018 as it frames a new export policy, betting on the markets of Japan, China and India. Incentives, according to the Export Promotion Bureau, are being worked out to help in the broadening of markets and diversification of the produce base to reach this ambitious target. It has been disclosed that government support will be especially extended towards facilitating greater support for export of the following products- deep-sea fish, leather and leather products, frozen fish and processed fish items, handicrafts, electric and electronic items, fresh flower, medicinal items, plastic goods, furniture, printing and packaging objects, paper and rubber items.
It would be worthwhile to note here that the government in this regard should also give special attention to developing the existing jute industry. We need to find how technological advances could be incorporated into this industry. Financial support, I believe, will open new directions for the entrepreneurs associated with this product that can truly be part of the 'green' revolution sweeping every corner of the developed world in particular.
Anticipating the need for financial support, the Bangladesh Bank has declared that it will try to set up a special fund to boost export with the help of the World Bank. Proven exporters can take low-interest, long-term loans from it. It will start off with US Dollar 500 million. It has also been mentioned that this Fund will be augmented once Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserve reaches the US Dollar 25 billion mark. It is understood that negotiations with the World Bank about the creation of such a Fund has reached the final stage and it is believed that this Fund will be in place in the next three to six months. That is good news for export diversification.
The second positive development has been the recent report that the government has nearly finalised the Foreign Grant Regulation Act 2014, aimed at attracting Japanese, Chinese and Indian investment in the proposed 13 Economic Zones. Focus will be given particularly on relaxing tax and citizenship issues. Adoption of the FGR Act will mean that there will not be any limitation on the amount of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Economic Zones (EZs) and local investors will be able to take over assets and industries owned by foreign firms. Foreign investors will also be able to enjoy extended tax holidays and duty exemptions. They will also enjoy certain special rights regarding repatriation of their income.
The International Chamber of Commerce, Bangladesh (ICC, B) has recently organised a conference in Dhaka titled 'Global Economic Recovery: Asian Perspective' to mark its 20 years of presence in Bangladesh. The Conference was particularly important for Bangladesh, aiming to attain middle income status by 2021. It correctly underlined the imperative that world leaders give utmost priority towards the development of an integrated global strategy for sustaining the required growth momentum.
The importance of these factors juxtaposed with- transparency in decision making, good governance,  greater accountability in the banking and financial sectors, eradication of 'doing business' costs, improvement in the necessary institutional infrastructure sector can help us to address critical areas. It would be appropriate to mention here that the possibility of merging the Board of Investment and the Privatisation Commission under the Prime Minister's Office as a unified organization titled Bangladesh Investment and Industries Development Authority needs to be considered seriously within this matrix. It will be appropriate given the challenging future ahead of us.
We not only have to tackle poverty but also the serious effects of climate change. We need a transformative process that will require commitment. In this regard our relevant authorities will have to, as indicated in the latest UNCTAD World Investment Forum in their latest meeting in Geneva, agree on the best possible steps for boosting investment in Bangladesh both in the rural economy as well as the mainstream sectors. That should include not only the private sector but also other investors such as State owned firms and sovereign wealth and public pension funds. They can all contribute to the achievement of our goals.
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Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialising in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance. He can be reached at