Treasuries slip, dollar steady as markets weigh Trump attack fallout

LONDON/SYDNEY, July 15 (Reuters): The dollar held steady on Monday, while long-dated US bond yields rose, as investors weighed whether an assassination attempt on presidential candidate Donald Trump increased his chances of victory.
European stocks drifted lower, after weak economic data from China helped set a cautious tone, while dour updates from British luxury group Burberry and watchmaker Swatch Group raised questions about consumer confidence.
In the United States, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both up around half a percentage point. The world's largest money manager BlackRock kicked off a busy earnings week by reporting record assets of $10.65 trillion, sending its share up 1.2 per cent in premarket trading.
Investors have tended to react to the prospect of a Trump win by pushing Treasury yields higher, in part on the assumption his economic policies would add to inflation and debt.
Online betting site PredictIT has a Republican win at 67 cents, up from 60 cents on Friday. Benchmark 10-year Treasuries fell in price, pushing the yield up by 4 basis points to 4.227 per cent - set for its largest one-day rise since July 1.
Eren Osman, managing director of wealth management at Arbuthnot Latham, said a likelier Trump victory would be seen as a positive for risk assets, noting a strong rally for bitcoin since the weekend, but added a word of caution.
"It would be reasonable to suggest it invigorates the Trump supporters to go vote, but they were probably the population of voters that were most likely to go and vote anyway," Osman said.
US retail sales data due on Tuesday was likely to be closely watched for clues on how consumers are faring, after recent data showed slowing growth, he said.
The dollar index was steady at 104.09, underpinned by gains in the US currency against the yen , rising 0.2 per cent to 157.96, following a bout of suspected Japanese intervention last week.
The euro was broadly flat at $1.091275, while bitcoin - seen benefiting from lighter regulation under a Trump administration - was up about 4 per cent at a two-week high.
European stocks slipped 0.4 per cent. Japan's Nikkei market was shut for a holiday.
Disappointing economic data kicked off a busy week in China, where a once-in-five-year gathering of top officials runs from July 15-18.