Trump weighs Iran strikes to inspire protests

DUBAI, Jan 29 (Reuters): US President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources said, even as Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple the clerical rulers.
Two US sources familiar with the discussions said Trump wanted to create conditions for "regime change" after a crackdown crushed a nationwide protest movement earlier this month, killing thousands of people.
To do so, he was looking at options to hit commanders and institutions Washington holds responsible for the violence, to give protesters the confidence that they could overrun government and security buildings, they said. Trump has not yet made a final decision on a course of action including whether to take the military path, one of the sources and a US official said.
The second US source said the options being discussed by Trump's aides also included a much larger strike intended to have lasting impact, possibly against the ballistic missiles that can reach US allies in the Middle East or its nuclear enrichment programmes. Iran has been unwilling to negotiate restrictions on the missiles, which it sees as its only deterrence against Israel, the first source said.
European Union foreign ministers adopted new sanctions on Iran on Thursday targeting individuals and entities involved in a violent crackdown on protesters and in the country's support to Russia, EU diplomats said on Thursday.
The ministers are also expected to reach a political agreement to include Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the bloc's list of terrorist organisations, putting the IRGC in a category similar to that of Islamic State and al Qaeda and marking a symbolic shift in Europe's approach to Iran's leadership.
Some EU members, led by France, have long been reluctant to add the IRGC to that list, but Paris said on Wednesday it would support the move, paving the way for an approval, even though such a decision needs unanimity among the bloc's 27 members.
The IRGC, set up after Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution to protect the Shi'ite clerical ruling system, has great sway in the country, controlling swathes of the economy and armed forces, and it was also put in charge of Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programmes.
The arrival of a US aircraft carrier and supporting warships in the Middle East this week has expanded Trump's capabilities to potentially take military action, after he repeatedly threatened intervention over Iran's crackdown.
Reuters spoke to more than a dozen people for this account of the high-stakes deliberations over Washington's next moves regarding Iran. Four Arab officials, three Western diplomats and a senior Western source whose governments were briefed on the discussions said they were concerned that instead of bringing people onto the streets, US strikes could weaken a movement already in shock after the bloodiest repression by authorities since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, said that without large-scale military defections Iran's protests remained "heroic but outgunned."
The sources in this story requested anonymity to talk about sensitive matters. Iran's foreign office, the US Department of Defense and the White House did not respond to requests for comment. The Israeli Prime Minister's office declined to comment.
Trump urged Iran on Wednesday to come to the table and make a deal on nuclear weapons, warning that any future US attack would be "far worse" than a June bombing campaign against three nuclear sites. He described the ships in the region as an "armada" sailing to Iran.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran was "preparing itself for a military confrontation, while at the same time making use of diplomatic channels." However, Washington was not showing openness to diplomacy, the official said. The US official said the current weakness of the regime encouraged Trump to apply pressure and seek a deal on denuclearisation.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is civilian, was ready for dialogue "based on mutual respect and interests" but would defend itself "like never before" if pushed, Iran's mission to the United Nations said in a post on X on Wednesday.
Trump has not publicly detailed what he is looking for in any deal. His administration's previous negotiating points have included banning Iran from independently enriching uranium and restrictions on long-range ballistic missiles and on Tehran's already-weakened network of armed proxies in the Middle East.
A senior Israeli official with direct knowledge of planning between Israel and the United States said Israel does not believe airstrikes alone can topple the Islamic Republic, if that is Washington's goal.