Unwelcome trends in manpower export
Saturday, 7 March 2009
THE relative comfort that Bangladesh had been enjoying thus far in regard to its foreign exchange earning from overseas employment has started to show some signs of reversal. If one looks at the rate of recruitment of the country's workers in the Middle-Eastern and in the Southeast Asian economies, the decline will become obvious. If compared on a month-to-month basis, the trend of manpower export performance shows a marked fall. The data of the Bureau of Manpower, Employment and Training (BMET), for example, shows that the decline was by 13 per cent when compared on a month-to-month basis.
The trend is undoubtedly an unsavoury one for the country, for till date its exports both on the manpower and commodities sectors had been demonstrating enough resilience. And its exports, in the either sector had been enjoying this comparative advantage, despite the fact that the global economy has been going through an unprecedented downturn. Meanwhile, its overseas remittances, too, remained very robust. In the circumstances, what does this sudden downturn in the export of manpower imply? Has the global economic turmoil anything to do with this apparent reversal?
The largest importers of Bangladesh's foreign-bound wage earners are the Middle Eastern countries. The construction sectors of the Gulf countries, which had been experiencing a boom in recent years, did not immediately respond to the recession that the western world was smarting from. Naturally, there was no reason for those countries to stop the import of foreign workers that their construction sectors needed so badly. But that ambience of confidence and immunity appears to be sagging gradually. And, to all appearances, it is the recession in the West that has finally caught the Middle-eastern nations into its ever-widening maw. In fact, the basic earning of the oil-rich Gulf nations comes from the volume of their oil export. But the recession-driven fall in the demand for this item in the highly industrialised nations has brought down the price of oil drastically, thus affecting the earning of these countries. The knock-on effect of this fall in their earning is now being felt by the manpower export sector of the countries like Bangladesh.
The worrying part of this development is that this negative trend in Bangladesh's manpower export to the Gulf nations may continue until the construction activities in those countries returns with a fresh surge. However, this reversal in the Gulf or other Middle-Eastern economies does not also imply that it will immediately impact the inflow of foreign remittance, as long as the service of this country's migrant workers is not affected. But if the recessionary trend continues in those countries for an indefinite period, the prospects of retaining their jobs would turn bleaker. However, experts hope that the situation may not ultimately go that far as the region has to complete its old projects as well as undertake new ones, the total worth of such activities being to the tune of US$ 2.0 trillion. As about 63 per cent of migrant workers from Bangladesh find their jobs in the Gulf countries, the government needs to keep tabs on the latest developments of the Gulf economies in particular, seeing that they are so vital to the growth, or the lack of it, of this country's manpower export sector.
Meanwhile, the South East Asian markets of Bangladeshi migrant workers, too, have shown some signs of a downturn in recent times, affecting the country's manpower exports to those countries. However, experts are not overly pessimistic about the country's manpower export sector, the recent setbacks notwithstanding. Hopes aside, the government should continue to keep a watchful eye on these developments through the country's diplomatic missions abroad.
The trend is undoubtedly an unsavoury one for the country, for till date its exports both on the manpower and commodities sectors had been demonstrating enough resilience. And its exports, in the either sector had been enjoying this comparative advantage, despite the fact that the global economy has been going through an unprecedented downturn. Meanwhile, its overseas remittances, too, remained very robust. In the circumstances, what does this sudden downturn in the export of manpower imply? Has the global economic turmoil anything to do with this apparent reversal?
The largest importers of Bangladesh's foreign-bound wage earners are the Middle Eastern countries. The construction sectors of the Gulf countries, which had been experiencing a boom in recent years, did not immediately respond to the recession that the western world was smarting from. Naturally, there was no reason for those countries to stop the import of foreign workers that their construction sectors needed so badly. But that ambience of confidence and immunity appears to be sagging gradually. And, to all appearances, it is the recession in the West that has finally caught the Middle-eastern nations into its ever-widening maw. In fact, the basic earning of the oil-rich Gulf nations comes from the volume of their oil export. But the recession-driven fall in the demand for this item in the highly industrialised nations has brought down the price of oil drastically, thus affecting the earning of these countries. The knock-on effect of this fall in their earning is now being felt by the manpower export sector of the countries like Bangladesh.
The worrying part of this development is that this negative trend in Bangladesh's manpower export to the Gulf nations may continue until the construction activities in those countries returns with a fresh surge. However, this reversal in the Gulf or other Middle-Eastern economies does not also imply that it will immediately impact the inflow of foreign remittance, as long as the service of this country's migrant workers is not affected. But if the recessionary trend continues in those countries for an indefinite period, the prospects of retaining their jobs would turn bleaker. However, experts hope that the situation may not ultimately go that far as the region has to complete its old projects as well as undertake new ones, the total worth of such activities being to the tune of US$ 2.0 trillion. As about 63 per cent of migrant workers from Bangladesh find their jobs in the Gulf countries, the government needs to keep tabs on the latest developments of the Gulf economies in particular, seeing that they are so vital to the growth, or the lack of it, of this country's manpower export sector.
Meanwhile, the South East Asian markets of Bangladeshi migrant workers, too, have shown some signs of a downturn in recent times, affecting the country's manpower exports to those countries. However, experts are not overly pessimistic about the country's manpower export sector, the recent setbacks notwithstanding. Hopes aside, the government should continue to keep a watchful eye on these developments through the country's diplomatic missions abroad.