US-Cuba détente: 53 years of trials and errors

On December 17 President Obama made a historic announcement to restore diplomatic relation with Cuba. The diplomatic relation was cut off in 1961, a few years after Fidel Castro came to power following a revolution against the Batista regime.
Castro introduced Soviet-style economic and political system, began persecution of political adversaries and scrapped US-Cuba military agreement of 1952. As time passed Castro, a staunch believer in Marxism, began to get closer to Moscow and assumed the role of a revolutionary committed to emancipate the people of Latin American countries from capitalism. In doing so, Castro positioned himself and his government as the closest ally of the Soviet Union and turned Havana into the epicentre of communism in the northern hemisphere.
In April 1961, the US approved an armed invasion by the Cubans exiled in Miami, known as the Bay of Pigs, but the invasion miserably failed for lack of support of the people in Cuba.
In the autumn of 1962, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, in an attempt to install medium-range missiles capable of striking targets within the United States with nuclear warheads, dispatched nuclear armaments to Cuba, an island which is only 90 miles away from US east coast. President Kennedy immediately ordered the defence force to impose blockade around Cuba and threatened to search the ships approaching the Cuban port. The international community was alarmed at the risk of another world war. Khrushchev withdrew the ships back to Vladivostok.
TERMINATION OF SANCTION: President Obama, soon after his re-election in 2012, initiated behind-the-curtain negotiations to resume diplomatic relation with Cuba which was also under economic sanction for the past 53 years.
During the cold war Cuba used to receive economic assistance from Moscow and exported sugar and cigars to the socialist countries. The break-up of the Soviet Union and dismantling of the socialist bloc ruined Cuba's economy. Soviet cash assistance ceased and the exports collapsed. The government of Venezuela, from time to time, helped by supplying oil at highly preferential rate. Cuba became isolated internationally but retained a few friends in the Organisation of American Countries (OAC) to lobby for its reintegration with the association. At the UN, 192 countries recently voted urging the US government to lift the embargo.
The exploratory talks began in early 2013 in Canada between the delegations of the two countries.  In the process Pope Francis extended the good offices of the Holy See in promoting the dialogue. The US Secretary of State joined the dialogue since the beginning of last year.
The process culminated in the declaration by President Obama on December 15, 2014 terminating economic sanction and restoring diplomatic relation with Cuba. Defending his decision Obama said, "I believe we can do more to support the Cuban people and promote our values through engagement. After all, these 50 years have shown that isolation has not worked. It's time for new approach." He acknowledged that his decision would not bring a transformation overnight but it would help the Cubans to help themselves.
Republican heavyweights including Senators Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and former Governor Jeb Bush denounced the decision and said, "All this is going to do is give the Castro regime, which controls every aspect of Cuban life, the opportunity to manipulate these changes to perpetuate itself in power." The Democrats in general welcomed the end of hostility and resumption of diplomatic relation. Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State and a presidential hopeful in 2016, welcomed the decision to restore diplomatic relation with Cuba.
PEOPLE BORE THE BRUNT: The 11 million people in Cuba have endured repression and economic hardships for decades. Cuba's economy was reeling. There has not been much foreign investment and the public sector remained the only source of employment. The salary would not exceed $ 300 per annum pushing the population to live in poverty. Schools and hospitals are poorly equipped. The embargo was relaxed number of times since 1990 but the mechanism applied in Cuba would not permit the traders and consumers to take full benefit of it. US government issued license for the sale of $300 million in medical products and $3.0 billion in agricultural products to Cuba in 2013 but at the end of the year the trade did not exceed $ 359 million.
The Cuban government controls almost all business from car dealership to hotel management. Foreign companies are allowed to hire workers only through the government departments. The employees receive only a portion of the amount paid as salary by the foreign firms - the rest is taken by the government. The repression and economic hardships prompted people to flee the island and over the decades a few hundred thousand Cubans have landed in Miami. Thousands are reported to have died while trying to enter Florida by sea. In 1980, about 100,000 people left by boat and Castro proudly said that he had "flushed the toilets in Cuba." Miami has the highest concentration of Cubans outside Cuba.
VICTORY OF CASTROS: Critics have argued that the entire exercise has been a gift package to Castro regime. The regime has been desperately looking for legitimacy and breaking the isolation and President Obama's overture has offered them both without seeking any return. The relaxation of trade and investment would allow the US companies to invest in Cuba but they would be required to channel all contracts through the government. This would place the regime in control of the much needed hard currency and the employees would have to be contended with a portion of what is extracted from the US or foreign companies. The foreign companies will thus directly subsidise the regime in its efforts to control the labour force. There is no indication that Castro regime would soften its position on human rights and according to the Cubans in exile, persecution of the dissidents has been as harsh as before.
CHANGE IS INIVITIBLE: Normalisation of relation with Cuba will take years. The complete lifting of embargo, re-establishing embassy in Havana and appointment of an Ambassador will require Congressional approval. The new Congress falling under the control of the Republicans would make it a daunting battle for Obama to get these endorsed. A rapid unravelling of a highly centralised system has also the risk of generating wave of migrants to the east coast.
On the other hand, there should be no illusion that Cuba will alter its trajectory significantly as long as Castro remains in power. Octogenarian President Raul Castro, in response to Obama's overture, reiterated his regime's commitment to communism and pledged Cuba will not abandon the ideas it has struggled for.
Raul Castro would retire in 2018, if not earlier. Miguel Diaz-Canel, Vice President and likely successor, comes from "post-revolution generation". Cubans at home and abroad will be justified to place confidence in the new leader to lift their country from poverty and isolation to the world of liberalisation.
OBAMA'S LEGACY: Two years of trials have paid off. Obama is on the path to build a legacy for him. The excruciating sufferings people were subjected to in the countries placed under economic embargo convinced Obama to try a different strategy. His disenchantment with belligerency earned vilification from the war-mongers but this did not alter his trajectory.
Obama will be remembered for pursuing a policy marked by engagement over embargo, dialogue over confrontation and rapprochement over renunciation long after he cease to be the President of the United States.

The author is a former official of the United Nations.
darahman.chowdhury@hotmail.com