US farmers may boost wheat, soya crops
Tuesday, 2 October 2007
NEW YORK, Oct 1 (AFP): United States (US) farmers are likely to boost wheat and soybean crops in 2008 in response to critically high
prices, potentially displacing others such as corn and cotton, analysts said this week.
"Even with corn prices higher ... we do believe that farmers are going to increase their planting for winter wheat," said Bill Nelson, an analyst at the investment firm AG Edwards.
With bad weather damaging harvests in several countries, wheat prices have nearly doubled since January, hitting a record nine dollars per bushel for December delivery on the Chicago futures market this week, while soybeans reached 10 dollars for delivery in November.
The price of corn (maize) has only risen by 4.5 per cent since the start of the year.
Soybeans and wheat are still being harvested in the United States but farmers are already planning what to plant next season.
"The farmers are seeing very high prices for wheat right now but they cannot sell next year's crop at that price," Nelson said.
Even though year's grain futures prices lower than the current highs, he said, "I'm sure that farmers are seeing indications that prices for harvest next year are much higher than they ever seen before."
Corn has had an excellent year, buoyed by demand for ethanol, a clean plant-based fuel made from the crop. More than 90 million acres (36 million hectares) of it was grown, compared to 60 million acres of wheat.
Now analysts predict wheat planting to increase in turn.
"We are estimating that total wheat acres in United States will grow (by) four million acres," said William Tierney of John Stewart and Associates, a former USDA economist.
Nelson estimated the growth in corn crops at 1.5 million acres, and some five million for soybeans.
Tierney meanwhile said soybeans could also gain a boost from the rise of wheat, as farmers try to cash in by planting both high-priced crops in the same fields.
"In some parts of the United States, it is possible because of the weather to plant winter wheat in the fall, to harvest it in June and then plant late season soybean," he said.
"So it's not just a matter of record wheat prices, there's also the encouragement because they can actually get two crops."
Citing USDA figures, Nelson said some eight per cent of the 2007 soya crop was produced in this way, with soybeans being planted after the winter wheat was harvested -- and the trend is likely to spread in 2008, he added, with these two crops also benefiting from others being rotated.
"With the larger corn crop thhis year, it will allow for a moderate decline in acres next year," Nelson said.
"We think there's going to be some decrease in the cotton acres, and in some corn acres, and in sorghum" grain, Tierney said, but stressed the drop in corn would be relatively small -- some three million acres.
prices, potentially displacing others such as corn and cotton, analysts said this week.
"Even with corn prices higher ... we do believe that farmers are going to increase their planting for winter wheat," said Bill Nelson, an analyst at the investment firm AG Edwards.
With bad weather damaging harvests in several countries, wheat prices have nearly doubled since January, hitting a record nine dollars per bushel for December delivery on the Chicago futures market this week, while soybeans reached 10 dollars for delivery in November.
The price of corn (maize) has only risen by 4.5 per cent since the start of the year.
Soybeans and wheat are still being harvested in the United States but farmers are already planning what to plant next season.
"The farmers are seeing very high prices for wheat right now but they cannot sell next year's crop at that price," Nelson said.
Even though year's grain futures prices lower than the current highs, he said, "I'm sure that farmers are seeing indications that prices for harvest next year are much higher than they ever seen before."
Corn has had an excellent year, buoyed by demand for ethanol, a clean plant-based fuel made from the crop. More than 90 million acres (36 million hectares) of it was grown, compared to 60 million acres of wheat.
Now analysts predict wheat planting to increase in turn.
"We are estimating that total wheat acres in United States will grow (by) four million acres," said William Tierney of John Stewart and Associates, a former USDA economist.
Nelson estimated the growth in corn crops at 1.5 million acres, and some five million for soybeans.
Tierney meanwhile said soybeans could also gain a boost from the rise of wheat, as farmers try to cash in by planting both high-priced crops in the same fields.
"In some parts of the United States, it is possible because of the weather to plant winter wheat in the fall, to harvest it in June and then plant late season soybean," he said.
"So it's not just a matter of record wheat prices, there's also the encouragement because they can actually get two crops."
Citing USDA figures, Nelson said some eight per cent of the 2007 soya crop was produced in this way, with soybeans being planted after the winter wheat was harvested -- and the trend is likely to spread in 2008, he added, with these two crops also benefiting from others being rotated.
"With the larger corn crop thhis year, it will allow for a moderate decline in acres next year," Nelson said.
"We think there's going to be some decrease in the cotton acres, and in some corn acres, and in sorghum" grain, Tierney said, but stressed the drop in corn would be relatively small -- some three million acres.