logo

US inflation slowed further in Dec

Saturday, 27 January 2024


WASHINGTON, Jan 26 (AP): The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge cooled further last month even as the economy kept growing briskly, a trend sure to be welcomed at the White House as President Joe Biden seeks re-election in a race that could pivot on his economic stewardship.
Friday's government report showed that prices rose just 0.2% from November to December, a pace consistent with pre-pandemic levels and barely above the Fed's 2% annual target. Measured from a year earlier, prices increased 2.6%.
Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called "core" prices rose just 0.2% from month to month and 2.9% from a year earlier - the smallest such rise since March 2021. Economists consider core prices a better gauge of the likely path of inflation.
The latest data suggests that the economy is achieving a difficult "soft landing," in which inflation falls back to the Fed's target without a recession. That outcome could make it easier for the Fed to consider cutting its key interest rate, which it raised 11 times since March 2022 to attack inflation. Higher interest rates have throttled home and auto sales by raising the cost of borrowing. Businesses have also chafed under the higher borrowing costs.
On Thursday, a government report showed that the economy expanded at a surprisingly strong 3.3% annual pace in the final three months of last year. Solid consumer spending propelled the growth, capping a year that had begun with widespread expectations of a recession. Instead, the economy grew 2.5% in 2023, up from 1.9% in 2022.
Biden's Republican critics have sought to highlight what had been the biggest inflation spike in 40 years, for which they have largely blamed the president's spending policies. But with inflation having dropped sharply after an extended period of gloomy consumer sentiment, Americans are starting to show signs of feeling better about the economy. A measure of consumer confidence by the University of Michigan, for example, has jumped in the past two months by the most since 1991.
The details in Friday's report all point to inflation being in check: Measured over the past six months, prices are up just 1.9%, which is actually below the Fed's 2% target. Over the past three months, the figure is even lower: 1.5%.
After nearly two years of sharp increases, grocery prices were unchanged in December and were just 1.3% higher than a year earlier. Chicken prices actually dipped 0.4% from November to December; they're up 1.2% compared to a year ago. Beef and veal prices, though, climbed 0.3% last month and are still 8.7% higher than a year earlier.
The report arrives less than week before the Fed will hold its latest policy meeting. The central bank is considered sure to keep rates unchanged, but attention will be focused on Chair Jerome Powell's news conference for any clues about when the Fed might begin to cut interest rates.